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Pakistan: Hamid Gul Predicts US Defeat In 2 Years

Former Pakistani ISI General Director and al-Qaeda's man in Pakistan has predicted the Unites States and NATO will be defeated by the Taliban and al-Qaeda in two years.

"The speech of American president indicates that he is suffering from inferiority complex and leading towards imperial arrogance. The system has overshadowed him," said Lt. Gen. (retd) Hamid Gul.

The former director general of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) told reporters that increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan will only add to the problems of America and predicted a defeat for foreign forces within two years.

He said that no super power could change the destiny.

He said that the US interferes in affairs of other countries and even it opposes the restoration of judges sacked by former president Pervez Musharraf.

"But the US had to submit to the will of Pakistanis," Gul said.

Anyone make a mental note that last week's mosque bombing in Pakistan was one nearest a Frontier Corps barracks with many FC killed (The FC are Pakistani localized paramilitaries similar in recruiting/organization to our National Guard) and that Pakistani police were also kidnapped and beheaded?

The common denominator? The Interior Ministry.

See September 2007 PrincipalAnalysis: Understanding Al-Qaeda's Pakistan PSYOP and Insurgency.

AQ Targets Police for Violence and Army Soldiers for Influence

The al-Qaeda Information Operation (IO) is designed to support the insurgency's incremental march on Islamabad. The key to understanding the al-Qaeda IO and its insurgency goals is to understand how al-Qaeda primarily targets Pakistani Interior Ministry forces (police, constabularies and the Frontier Corps) for physical attack while targeting Pakistani regular army forces for influence and subversion.

The persistent mention of Pakistani police forces - rather than Pakistani Army forces - is expected in any Pakistani Interior Ministry report, as the Police forces fall under the Interior. But Pakistani police forces also decidedly bear the brunt of al-Qaeda's lethal attacks and not the Pakistani Army. It's not that al-Qaeda and their indigenous Taliban allies cannot attack the Pakistani Army with expectations of success. They most certainly can and have. With bin Laden's latest audio message delivering a combination invitation and ultimatum to Pakistani Army soldiers, al-Qaeda's designs for the Pakistani Army are more clearly visible. The reason for attacking Pakistani police forces is two-fold and - in this writer's view - also the most elusive and yet perhaps most important indicator of the ongoing al-Qaeda insurgency.

First, the Interior Ministry is widely regarded as the one segment of the Pakistani government with unwavering loyalty to Musharraf, whom al-Qaeda has sought to assassinate several times. Unlike the military and the military's intelligence arm (ISI), the Pakistani police forces, constabularies and Frontier Corps of the Interior Ministry do not have historical ties to Islamist groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba, al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Interior Ministry loyalty to Musharraf makes their ranks logical targets for the Islamists who seek to kill and replace Musharraf atop an Islamist-run Pakistani government.

Secondly, and most importantly, al-Qaeda at the same time seeks to avoid open bloody conflict with the Army. Not because it fears the deadly consequences of such a confrontation, but rather because al-Qaeda senior leadership wants the Pakistani military intact - for themselves. Ideally, they do not want to ultimately find Musharraf killed or oustered only to have the military splintered internally between pro-government and pro-al-Qaeda commanders. Al-Qaeda is executing an insurgency to gain control, not to touch off a civil war.

In the end, al-Qaeda's design is also to co-opt an intact military in order to gain command of a military force with the assets of a state (aircraft, armor, etc.) and direct control of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. Recent reports of defections of Pakistani military elements since bin Laden's latest message to them indicates a level of success in the al-Qaeda IO campaign targeting them.

Musharraf may be gone, but the PSYOP continues apace, as does the killing of Frontier Corps paramilitaries, police and constabularies.

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