Iran's 'Coalition Against Nature'
J. Peter Pham pointed out a new monograph by Dr. Ely Karmon for the US Army War College that I had initially missed. You should not, and I have been reading in sprints now and highly, highly recommend it in order to appreciate the context of rapidly unfolding events vis-a-vis Israel, Syria, Lebanon, Iran and the Palestinian Territories.
In addition to accurately portraying the Iranian alliance network that spans across the over-emphasized Shi'a-Sunni ideological/theological divide, Dr. Karmon spells out succinctly the impact of a nuclear Iran beyond a nuclear attack on Israel.
But the other crucial question is, in case Iran goes nuclear, how dangerous and unstable would the Middle East be: how much, in any case, would those who potentially are in Tehran’s and its allies’ gun-sights suffer. It is reasonable to consider that the axis would critically enhance its subversion, penetration, and domination of most of the region’s unstable arenas and conflicts.
The potential of radicalization/Islamization of Iraq, at least the Shia Iraq, could quickly materialize and result in a more bloody sectarian war involving the neighboring Sunni countries. This could be a major step in the formation of the dreaded Shia Crescent.
The process of radicalization/Islamization of Lebanon through the good offices of Hizballah would be accelerated.
The process of radicalization/Islamization of Palestine, which began by the takeover of Gaza by Hamas, would also be accelerated, with immediate influence on the strategies of the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Islamist groups in Egypt and Jordan.
Iran, with Hizballah and Iraqi Shia radicals’ support, could open a new front in the Gulf countries by inciting the Shia majority in Bahrain and the minorities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen, Oman, and the UAE, who live mostly in the oil-rich provinces, to fight actively and violently for equal rights, autonomy, or even self-determination.Tehran would be tempted to spread its revolutionary message towards the Muslim republics in Central Asia.
Dr. Karmon's Iran–Syria–Hizballah–Hamas A Coalition Against Nature is very highly recommended and should be considered required reading.