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Symposium: The Day After

ThreatsWatch participated in a recent symposium published today at FrontPage Magazine titled "The Day After," focusing on the Iranian nuclear threat to Israel and what 'The Day After" Iran announces nuclear weapons capability and/or possession might look like. Steve Schippert participated with Israel's former ambassador to the UN Dore Gold, senior Middle East fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the deputy managing editor of the Jerusalem Post Caroline Glick, and freelance writer and Tel Aviv-based translator David Hornik.

The two rounds of discussion began just before the recent NIE on Iran and concluded recently. Schippert closed the discussion with the following observations.

The threat posed [to Israel] by an Iranian nuclear arsenal is not one of mere blood and danger, but one of annihilation.

And Iran is quite aware of Israel's Samson Option - the Middle Eastern version of Mutually Assured Destruction. The only possibility of negating this is to strike Israel's nuclear arsenal - an officially unacknowledged but intentionally poorly kept Israeli 'secret.' This is why Iran's announcement of any nuclear weapons will not be in merely achieving weapons capability or a single weapon - but rather when it has the arsenal it needs if announced at all.

If permitted to achieve this, The Day After may not simply be the day after Iran announces its ability, but The Day After it does so by demonstrating it.

Feeling increasingly isolated and cornered, Israel will thus feel ever more compelled to act, entrusting its very survival to no ally, not even the United States. Perhaps there will then be a new "The Day After" symposium conducted in Persian rather than English.

Readers can consider the entire symposium and the sober observations from Gold, Glick and Hornik here.