Just across the Texas border, the Sinaola and Gulf drug cartels are waging a bloody war. In Monterrey, a city of 3.5 million people, a city of wealth and a previously quiet city with a major university, over 100 murders occurred in 2007, with 31 law enforcement officers as victims.

Not one 2007 cartel-related killing in the state of Nuevo León, where Monterrey is the capital, was solved as of the last week of December.

Monterrey lies about 2 hours from Nuevo Laredo (136 miles), just across the U.S.-Mexico border from Laredo Texas. In Laredo, Interstate 35 begins its run up the center of the United States that goes to Duluth Minnesota.

The narco-violence is not restricted to Nuevo Laredo, Monterrey or Acapulco. Recent reports detail the spread of the drug wars to Baja California, where on December 18th, at 1PM, ten cars approached the building where police chief of Playas de Rosarito, Jorge Eduardo Montero Alvarez were getting out of their cars, and opened fire. High caliber weapons were used on both sides of the battle.

Just this past Friday, on December 29th, a police convoy in the central state of Zacatecas was attacked by heavily armed commandos, killing seven police officers and allowing two alleged kidnappers to escape. This attack was seemingly in retaliation for the capture of the kidnap suspects just hours earlier.

The killings capped a bloody year in Mexico’s brutal drug gang war, which claimed more than 2,200 lives in 2007, including scores of law enforcers.

It is suspected that the Zetas, deserters from the U.S.-trained, Mexican special operations forces, are responsible for the attacks. Known to some as “Los Zetas,” they are the armed militia supporting the Gulf Cartel in this drug war.

Considering the porosity of the U.S.-Mexican border, and despite President Calderone’s efforts to quell the violence using Mexican federal troops, this continuing drug violence has to be considered seriously.

By Jay Fraser at 10:30 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

US Spcial Forces from the NEST team are understandably on stand-by to respond and secure or destroy Pakistani nuclear weapons if Musharraf falls to an Islamist coup.

US special forces snatch squads are on standby to seize or disable Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal in the event of a collapse of government authority or the outbreak of civil war following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.

The troops, augmented by volunteer scientists from America’s Nuclear Emergency Search Team organisation, are under orders to take control of an estimated 60 warheads dispersed around six to 10 high-security Pakistani military bases.

Military sources say contingency plans have been reviewed over the past three days to prevent any of Pakistan’s atomic weapons falling into the hands of Islamic extremists if the administration of President Pervez Musharraf appears threatened by civil unrest.
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Some of the special forces are already believed to be in neighbouring Afghanistan and on alert for the mission. It is also understood that satellite surveillance of Pakistan has been stepped up to keep track of the possible movement of nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems.

Should their deployment into action be required, the NEST teams will surely have no welcoming committee regardless of whose forces (and loyalties) are in place at any of the facilities in question.

Regardless, Pakistan’s nuclear weapons - and their tight security - are the gravest concern for the United States. As al-Qaeda’s insurgency in Pakistan continues to grow and gather steam while Musharraf appears ever weaker, the American sense of crisis grows.

Nothing is more dangerous than an al-Qaeda terrorist network with nuclear weapons. It is one which includes sympathizers (if not members) within Pakistan’s military and intelligence.

Risk = Consequences x Likelihood

The consequences are fixed and grave. And as the likelihood increases, the level of true risk increases multiple-fold. As such, the risk must be treated with the utmost gravity by those best prepared to intervene.

By Steve Schippert at 4:01 AM | Permalink | Feedback (2) | Referenced By (0)

No longer content with operations merely in Algeria, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) is suspected of being behind a shooting attack on a family of French tourists in the northwest African nation of Mauritania. A fifth person was wounded in the attack, which occurred outside the town of Aleg in southern Mauritania on December 24. According to the BBC:

Tuesday’s attack happened after the five victims stopped on the side of a road for a picnic. The gunmen opened fire with automatic weapons, before speeding off in a car that was later recovered in Aleg, about 250km (160 miles) east of the capital Nouakchott.

Mauritanian prosecutors have reported that the suspects in the attack are believed to be affiliates of AQIM, which has been particularly active in recent weeks. This terrorist organization, formerly known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) before it formally allied with al-Qaeda, also claimed responsibility for the massive dual bombings in the Algerian capital of Algiers on December 11. This suicide bombing attack, which targeted a United Nations headquarters in the city and a government building, killed dozens. One of the perpetrators of the Mauritanian attack has been apprehended, with others still on the lam. The French government has urged its nationals to avoid the area:

On its website, the French foreign ministry is advising holiday tourists to pick destinations other than Mauritania, citing threats by Al-Qaeda against “French interests in North Africa.”

In more recent news, AQIM has claimed responsibility for a strike against Mauritanian soldiers outside El Ghallawiya, in northeast Mauritania, on December 27.Three soldiers were shot and killed in the incident. AQIM took credit in a recording aired on Al-Arabiya, which stated:

“We are glad to inform our Muslim nation about the victories achieved by the mujahideen of the al-Qaeda Organisation in the Islamic Maghreb through 15 simultaneous operations.”

The recent string of terrorist incidents has caused concern that AQIM might also try to disrupt the upcoming Lisbon to Dakar Rally, an auto race set to begin on January 5 that draws thousands of spectators to Mauritania. These incidents provide definitive evidence that AQIM is intent on spreading its reach outside of its nation of origin, Algeria. Additionally, among counterterrorism analysts there has been a long running debate over the threat of extremist forces finding safe haven in the Sahel, a vast semi-arid region south of the Sahara Desert. The attack against the French tourists, which occurred in this region, lends further credence to this argument and also heightens fears that AQIM is expanding its operations into Senegal and Mali.

By Clay Varney at 10:00 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Last night, I was interviewed by Dr. Glazov of Frontpage Magazine regarding the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan early Thursday. In reality, the early interview contains analysis that has yet to reach ThreatsWatch pages. While there will be a more complete ThreatsWatch analysis later, a glimpse of the elements can be seen within the Frontpage interview, With Bhutto Gone…

It should be noted that instability and disunity are a requirement of any successful insurgency campaign, and an insurgency is exactly what the Taliban-al-Qaeda alliance has been executing - albeit in a remarkably patient, methodical ‘Death by a Thousand Cuts’ fashion. Their goals are two-fold: Establish Pakistan as the base of their envisioned restoration of a caliphate and the acquisition of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, providing them with both horrifying means of attack as well as a newfound deterrence.

Included is also discussion regarding the implications for the region, principally for Afghanistan and India, as well as the likely role of some within Pakistani military and intelligence circles.

As for what the Bhutto assassination means for the United States going forward, I concluded that we are likely at a fork in the road and may be facing a difficult decision regarding Musharraf and Pakistan.

For the US going forward, we may be approaching a time where the US needs to determine if it is going to continue to support Musharraf wholly and stay largely out of Pakistan or confront the danger full-on and unleash a full assault on the tribal regions held by al-Qaeda and the Taliban. Perhaps a recognition that at the end of the day there truly is no defeating al-Qaeda within Pakistan by Pakistan, and that it will require American boots on the ground and assets in the air - whether convenient or not, pleasant contemplation or not. We may be nearing that crucial decision point.

Also keep in mind that, if history is a guide, the decision may be made for us. Consider the recent history of Pakistani leaders who have appointed a new Chief of Army Staff - such as Musharraf did in appointing General Kiyani to take his place. It would not be a stretch of the imagination to contemplate Kiyani overthrowing Musharraf thinking him too divisive for his country to survive. Recall the unspoken synergy of mutual anger held both by Bhutto supporters and al-Qaeda for Musharraf. With her assassination, it could be a perfect storm brewing for al-Qaeda in Pakistan - one that could eclipse the synergistic anger that manifested after Lal Masjid assault and the arrest of Supreme Court Chief Justice Chaudhry.

Recall also that Musharraf himself was appointed Chief of Army Staff by Nawaz Sharif. General Musharraf dispatched of him in short order in a bloodless coup shortly after.

History can tell us many things. But what it cannot tell us is often more troubling. We are now in uncharted waters with an increasingly unstable nuclear power while a bloodthirsty international terrorist organization thrives within its borders. Not even the fall and breakup of the Soviet Union can compare in potential perils.

The coming week is critical, and all events in Pakistan warrant the closest attention.

Read the entire Frontpage interview here.

By Steve Schippert at 12:07 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

Here is a curious report: US Urges North Korea to Keep Nuclear Commitments.

Officials here say the United States and other parties to the nuclear deal are fulfilling their commitments to North Korea and that Pyongyang can and should meet its obligation to account for its nuclear program and activities by the end of the year.

The ‘end of the year’ is a scant 3 days and one hour from the time of this posting (NYC time). Interesting, but not curious.

The curious part is the continued toying with a North Korean totalitarian government with a track record of thumbing its nose after it gets what it wants in exchange for its extortion efforts - generally cash, food and fuel. Further, is the deadline actually a deadline, or perhaps another roadside post that can be moved upon renewed NoKor promises come January 1, 2008? it’s not an unfair question to ask.

One wonders if aiding Syria with a suspected nuclear program closely tied to Iran is part of its ‘commitments,’ either explicitly or implied.

Does anyone remember that Iran’s IRGC had a healthy supply of officers at last year’s North Korean nuclear bomb test detonation…and lost IRGC officers in a recent explosion while ‘training’ Syrian forces on the finer points of installing chemical warheads on Scud missiles…not far down the road from the suspected Syrian nuclear site - manned with both Iranians and North Koreans - laid flat by the Israeli Air Force?

Just asking for asking’s sake.

By Steve Schippert at 11:12 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

A new video featuring Usama bin Laden called “The Way to Foil the Conspiracies” is set to hit the Internet, according to a statement posted on several Jihadi message boards and promoted through an animated GIF banner. The message will last for a total of 56 minutes and 10 seconds and will address Iraq and al-Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq (ISI).

The ISI has come under scrutiny within Jihadi circles for its loss of territory and reduced tempo of operations. In October bin Laden recorded an audio message that was widely considered to be criticism of the ISI and its emir, the notional Abu Omar al-Baghdadi.

It is not clear when the message will be released onto the Internet and if it will be delivered as an audio or a video file. It will mark as-Sahab’s 99th video/audio product of 2007 and bin Laden’s fifth media appearance since September.

By Nick Grace at 8:40 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

According to the account told by photographer John Moore of Getty Images, Benazir Bhutto was shot in the neck and chest as she waved to crowds of supporters - and at least one enemy - while standing through the sunroof of her vehicle leaving the Rawalpindi rally. From CNN:

The photographer who took the last known images of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto before her assassination Thursday told CNN he was “surprised” to see her rise through the sunroof of her vehicle to wave to supporters after delivering her speech.

“I ran up, got as close as I got, made a few pictures of her waving to the crowd,” Getty Images senior staff photographer John Moore told CNN’s online streaming news service, CNN.com Live, in a phone interview Thursday from Islamabad, Pakistan.

“And then suddenly, there were a few gun shots that rang out, and she went down, she went down through the sunroof,” he said. “And just at that moment I raised my camera up and the blast happened. … And then, of course, there was chaos.”

This explains the initial question offered privately regarding whether or not Bhutto’s vehicle had bullet-proof glass. Bill Roggio noted a logical possibility at the time, writing that “[t]he mode of attack suggests a level of training, discipline, and expertise of a military organization. If bullets penetrated Bhutto’s vehicle windshield, which was no doubt was bullet proof, the shooter was using armor-piercing rounds and had good aim.” We now know that the attacker was clearly at close range and almost certainly did not penetrate the vehicle’s bullet-proof glass. At least that such was not necessary.

It was customary for Bhutto to exit rallies in such a manner - a characteristic clearly not lost on her attackers. In the end, Benazir’s mass appeal was both her greatest strength and her fatal weakness.

By Steve Schippert at 5:23 PM | Permalink | Feedback (2) | Referenced By (0)

When the Israelis attacked a Syrian ‘nuclear bomb plant’ deep inside Syria September 6th, there has been a noticeable silence on the issue from all quarters - chief among them Syria and Iran. Both nations had invested heavily (and very publicly) in the Russian TOR-M1 anti-aircraft missile defense systems. Iran had positioned dozens of them around its nuclear facilities to overtly ward off any potential American or Israeli airstrikes. But the Israeli air raid of September 6th rendered the TOR-M1 mute and effectively reduced them to expensive lawn ornaments - hence, in part, the silence from Syria and Iran. In addition to the nature of the Syrian site destroyed - North Korean, Iranian and Syrian joint efforts - a suspected nuclear endeavor, the utter failure of the TOR-M1 system reverberated through the halls of Damascus and Tehran…as well as their allied Moscow suppliers.

All of the above is to provide the proper context for understanding the cause behind the fact that Russia is now selling Iran a ‘new sophisticated’ air defense missile system, the S-300. The Russian truck-portable S-300 system is comparable to Raytheon’s Patriot missile system, which is designed for high-altitude anti-aircraft and anti-ballistic missile defenses.

Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said on Iranian state TV that “The S-300 air defense system will be delivered to Iran on the basis of a contract signed with Russia in the past.”

While there is likely some truth to that, to dismiss the immediacy and impetus provided by the complete Israeli defeat of the currently supplied TOR-M1 systems deep inside Syria is to abandon common sense. Both Tehran and Damascus were shaken and angered by the complete systems failure.

Background:

ThreatsWatch 2005: Diverging Relations - Russia’s $1B Deal with Iran
ThreatsWatch 2006: Russian Missiles For Iranian Nuke Plants Delivered

Also of interest regarding Russian arms sales:

UK Guardian: US aims to edge out Russia in big arms sales to India

By Steve Schippert at 4:56 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

An early report from Adnkronos indicates that al-Qaeda claimed responsibility for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto earlier today in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. It was Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid, al-Qaeda’s military commander in Afghanistan, that made the statement for the terrorist group. The well-connected Sayed Saleem Shahzad reports that the order to assassinate Bhutto “was made by al-Qaeda No. 2, the Egyptian doctor, Ayman al-Zawahiri in October. ” (For more on Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid, see this May al-Jazeera report via The Long War Journal.)

Bhutto’s angry and distraught supporters have taken to the streets in her (and Musharraf’s) native Karachi, where a witness said that “[a]t least three banks, a government office and a post office were set on fire.” Reports of unrest within Pakistan extend from Karachi to the south all the way to Kashmir in the north.

What lies ahead is the potential for a perfect storm for the al-Qaeda-Taliban alliance, as its insurgency will be immeasurably aided by widespread public discontent and violence. Opposition to Musharraf may be the only thing Bhutto supporters have in common with the Islamist terrorists of Pakistan’s tribal areas, but it could be just enough. Fueled by anger and passion, the initial reaction is to blame Musharraf - directly and indirectly - and currently absent is any ire toward the terrorists who have taken credit.

It is with no small irony that in Benazir Bhutto’s final address she said, “I put my life in danger and came here because I feel this country is in danger. People are worried. We will bring the country out of this crisis.”

Unchecked angry responses through widespread rioting, however, risks aiding those who murdered her as much as hurting a reviled Musharraf, whom they hold primarily responsible.

Truly difficult days lie ahead in Pakistan.

By Steve Schippert at 3:17 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

Benazir Bhutto has been assassinated today at a rally held in Rawalpindi, the garrison city near Islamabad that is also home to Pakistani Army headquarters.

Early reports indicate that Bhutto was shot by sniper fire in a coordinated attack that included a suicide bomber, with FOX News reporting that she was hit five times, including in the chest and neck. She survived the initial attack but appears to have died in surgery at a local hospital.

Little news is available yet from Pakistani media sources, but The Times of India reports that about 20 are believed to have been killed by the suicide bomber’s blast in addition to the sniper killing of Bhutto. The bomber struck an exit where people were leaving Bhutto’s rally.

At the hospital, Bhutto supporters were already reacting against Pervez Musharraf, whose government and military they likely suspect are behind the attack. At the news of Bhutto’s death, they chanted “Dog, Musharraf, dog,” and broke glass doors at the entry to the hospital.

The greatest strategic fear going forward from this tragedy is a potential rise in civil unrest inside Pakistan with chaos and instability throughout regions of the country, adding to the challenge of a Taliban-al-Qaeda alliance in control of the tribal areas. Chaos among the democratic opposition in cities such as Karachi and Lahore would magnify the crisis already at hand.

More to follow at ThreatsWatch as the situation unfolds and information becomes available.

By Steve Schippert at 9:28 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

As-Sahab, al-Qaeda’s central media wing, released its 96th video this year and the 50th installment of “American Holocaust/Hell for the Americans in the Land of Khorasan (Islamic Emirate)” December 23 on the main al-Qaeda message forums. The video, which is billed as “Shelling a British base with 82 mm mortars in Helmand province, Afghanistan,” lasts a total of 2 minutes and 45 seconds and features footage of a Taliban mortar attack.

The “Hell of the Americans in the Land of Khorasan” series features short operational clips of Taliban and al-Qaeda attacks on American, British and Afghan targets in Afghanistan. The messaging strategy mimics tactics used by al-Qaeda and Sunni insurgent groups in Iraq, which compete in the information theater for financing and recruits, and signals that al-Qaeda, itself, is fully engaged in guerilla warfare in Afghanistan. Short clips of operations also serve as an effective morale booster for the rank and file.

The video was posted in 3 video formats and 4 different file sizes and seeded across a total of 389 free file transfer sites on December 22, including depositfiles.com, filefactory.com, badongo.com, cocoshare.cc, speedshare.org, files.to, megaupload.com, savefile.info, 4filehosting.com, heyupload.com, zshare.net, rapidshare.com, fastuploading.com, netload.in, archiv.to, egoshare.com, uploaded.to, sendspace.com, upitus.com, and l5s.net. Some of the seeds are stamped with “mirrorit.de,” a Web site that facilitates three uploads at once.

The 80 Meg video was last modified on November 5, however, the smaller files carry a December 21 timestamp. Following standard operational security, the files are zipped in the RAR format and protected with the randomly-generated password “mhf*($df893fymj9bfD@Jgg*(KDJm.”

[Editor’s Note: We have begun posting the propaganda from al-Qaeda and others for the primary purpose of informing and educating both the general public and policy makers about the level to which the enemy has actively engaged in Information Warfare. Some of the messages contain graphic content. We at ThreatsWatch post these videos as evidence of the brutal nature of the enemy we face and the clear intent they have to kill those not aligned with them. Making the public aware of the nature of the enemy - as well as the often forgotten virtues of our own nation - is one of the primary missions of ThreatsWatch and the Center for Threat Awareness.]

By Nick Grace at 11:57 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

It is difficult to imagine how there can be much argument that Gen. David Petraeus is 2007’s Man of the Year. For the reasons you stated and more, Bill Kristol, I personally concur.

By Steve Schippert at 1:53 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Putting aside for a moment whether an outbreak of Pandemic avian flu (H5N1) is on the horizon or not, the recent outbreaks in China (where no concrete connections have yet been proven) and in Pakistan (where a small chain of human to human transmission has occurred according to the World Health Organization) raise the concern level.

Keiji Fukuda, coordinator of the WHO’s global influenza program, told Reuters this week that the Pakistan cases probably represent a mix of poultry-to-human infections and human-to-human transmission resulting from close contact when people cared for infected relatives. “We don’t have any indication of a broader health threat, other than poultry outbreaks” in the area, WHO spokesman John Rainford told CIDRAP (Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy - University of Minnesota) news today. “Our risk assessment suggests no evidence of sustained transmission. All the close contacts and involved healthcare workers remain asymptomatic and have been released from close medical observation.”

At the same time, CIDRAP is also reporting that the origins of the more recent outbreak in Indonesia in which five members of one family have been infected are unknown (see also from CIDRAP: CIDRAP News story “Possible H5N1 family cluster probed in Pakistan” and CIDRAP News story “Reports suggest common source in family H5N1 cases”

Therefore, despite explanations, there is a possibility that in both Pakistan and China (and maybe Indonesia), we are seeing both human-to-human and bird-to-human transmission. The question of human-to-human transmission, and whether that jump can or will turn into a pandemic has to be considered. In fact, the World Health Organization, in its latest reports said that there is a possibility that the reported Bird Flu in Pakistan might be spreading both from person to person and from poultry to humans. Additionally, the U.S. State Department this week began a series of articles on the bird flu preparations in Vietnam

Vietnam’s Vaccination Effort Helps in Fight Against Avian Flu Vaccinating its highest-risk populations of chickens and ducks has been an expensive and logistically complex effort for Vietnam’s central government, but animal health officials say it has slowed deadly outbreaks of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza among birds in the Southeast Asian nation and, critically, among people. Also see: The State Department’s Bird Flu website is found here, Bird Flu (Avian Influenza) and National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza

Why make this point (over and over again)? It’s all about preparedness. Based on a report from Trust for America’s Health (tagged as a “watchdog” group by some local media), “Ready or Not? Protecting the Public’s Health from Disease, Disasters, and Bioterrorism,” we remain unprepared. The report indicates that a “number of critical areas of the nation’s emergency health preparedness effort still require attention.” More on point:

Thirteen states don’t have adequate plans to distribute vaccines and antidotes in the event of a flu pandemic or a bioterrorism attack. Among the findings outlined in the report:

● Flu vaccination rates decreased among the elderly in 11 states during the past year.
● Six states cut their public health budgets between fiscal 2005 and fiscal 2006.
● Thirteen states do not have adequate plans to distribute emergency vaccines, antidotes, and medical supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile
● Twenty-one states do not have statutes that allow for adequate liability protection for healthcare volunteers during emergencies
● Twelve states do not have a disease surveillance system compatible with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Electronic Disease Surveillance System
● Seven states have not purchased any portion of their federally-subsidized or unsubsidized antivirals to use during a pandemic flu
● Seven states and D.C. lack sufficient capabilities to test for biological threats

“There is little doubt that emergency health preparedness is on the national radar,” Levi added. “But until all states are equally well prepared, our country is not as safe as it can and should be.”

All fifty U.S. states and the District of Columbia (D.C.) were graded based on publicly available data. The results? Thirty-five states and D.C. scored eight or higher on the scale of ten indicators. Illinois, Kentucky, Nebraska, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Virginia scored the highest with 10 out of 10. Arkansas, Iowa, Mississippi, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Wyoming scored the lowest with six out of 10.

We are dealing with the potential onset of a naturally borne medical disaster. I believe that it is important to recognize that the question of the “jump” to human-to-human transmission is one that could be “only one mutation” (of the virus) away. This was discussed back in October in The “Next” Step in Bird Flu Mutations. While “some” people may argue that “human-to-human” transmission is not occuring (or at least not yet on a large scale), or even that if an outbreak of H5N1 occurs in the United States, it might not become a pandemic, I blieve that the saying that “a chain is only as strong as its weakest link” holds true here.

By Jay Fraser at 6:54 AM | Permalink | Feedback (3) | Referenced By (0)

Al-Furqan, the media wing of al-Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) and its “Ministry of Information,” released a new video on December 20 through the al-Fajr Media Center. The video, called “The Complete Destruction Of a U.S. Hummer And Killing All Its Passengers,” was recorded in Eastern Hasibah, Ramadi, Anbar Province, and is part of the ongoing ISI propaganda series “Hell of the Romans and Apostates in the Land of Mesopotamia.”

The video was released in three formats and file sizes across a total of 246 file transfer Web sites, including uploaded.to, datenklo.net, badongo.com, depositfiles.com, filefactory.com, files.to, cocoshare.cc, megaupload.com, zshare.net, savefile.info, rapidshare.com, archive.org, fastuploading.com, archiv.to, and netload.in. According to timestamps on some of the file transfer sites the videos were posted on December 19.

Al-Furqan, al-Qaeda’s media network inside Iraq, has been heavily targeted by coalition forces since the surge peaked in June. Its operations in Mosul were dismantled over the Summer and in the past week nearly 30 of its operatives in Samarra have been killed and captured by coalition forces. Al-Furqan perviously maintained a large output of propaganda products but it practically went silent between September and late November. The sudden appearance of video releases suggests a renewed effort by al-Qaeda to dominate the market of operations videos produced on a daily basis in Iraq.

[Editor’s Note: We have begun posting the propaganda from al-Qaeda and others for the primary purpose of informing and educating both the general public and policy makers about the level to which the enemy has actively engaged in Information Warfare. Some of the messages, such as this one, contain graphic content. We at ThreatsWatch post these videos as evidence of the brutal nature of the enemy we face and the clear intent they have to kill those not aligned with them. Making the public aware of the nature of the enemy - as well as the often forgotten virtues of our own nation - is one of the primary missions of ThreatsWatch and the Center for Threat Awareness.]

By Nick Grace at 4:45 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

When it comes to keeping an ear out for military and intelligence developments in China, there are few places in the world more important than the Kunia Regional SIGINT Operations Center. This makes today’s Washington Times story by Bill Gertz so disturbing:

China’s intelligence service gained access to a secret National Security Agency listening post in Hawaii through a Chinese-language translation service, according to U.S. intelligence officials.

The spy penetration was discovered several years ago as part of a major counterintelligence probe by the Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS) that revealed an extensive program by China’s spy service to steal codes and other electronic intelligence secrets, and to recruit military and civilian personnel with access to them.

… China’s Ministry of State Security, the main civilian spy service, carried out the operations by setting up a Chinese translation service in Hawaii that represented itself as a U.S.-origin company … The ruse led to classified contracts with the Navy and NSA to translate some of the hundreds of thousands of intercepted communications gathered by NSA’s network of listening posts, aircraft and ships.

Native Chinese speakers tend to occupy the top tier linguist positions in intelligence agencies; correcting and/or refining the work of those with lesser expertise. Over time a cadre of compromised ethnic Chinese linguists could significantly negatively impact on our understanding of Chinese activities and intentions.

Your author has talked about our counterintelligence problems before, but this case, with its apparent broad and deep penetration of an entire facility, stands alone amongst recent Chinese espionage cases. This is in effect an attempt to nullify an entire intelligence discipline and render this nation dumb to what many consider a near-peer adversary. China, you might recall, recently demonstrated it has real Star Wars-like capabilities. No matter where you fall out on the China-as-enemy/-friend spectrum you have to agree: having no reliable idea about what any nation is saying is generally a poor state if awareness.

Assuming a high degree of accuracy in what has been revealed so far, this is one collection and analysis capability that is close to being “combat ineffective” in the intelligence war. If congress is going to hold hearings on intelligence matters, it would do well to back-burner the political theater that is the CIA interrogation tape case and query the Director of National Intelligence, the Director of the National Security Agency, and the Director of Naval Intelligence about what appears to be a fantastic intelligence fiasco.

By Michael Tanji at 2:30 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), an insurgent organization operating in the southern oil-rich region of Nigeria’s Niger Delta, called for the resumption of hostilities against government forces and foreign oil companies operating in the area on December 17. Though MEND is the most well-known and effective group attacking oil production facilities and other targets in the volatile Niger Delta, other similarly orientated groups exist as well, such as the Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force. After reneging from a peace deal with the Nigerian government in September, MEND has now issued a call for all the disparate insurgent groups in the delta to unite and finish off all oil production in the region. In an e-mail sent to journalists, MEND issued a new call to arms:

“We call on all genuine militant groups to unite and cripple the oil industry in Nigeria once and for all,” the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) said.

“The time has come for all breakaway factions to come together and wage war of a different kind in 2008,” it said in an email.

[…]

“MEND has long suspected the insincerity of the Nigerian government, the military, and oil majors along with their collaborators,” it said.

The implications of this message reach far beyond Nigeria. The West African nation has emerged as a major producer of petroleum to the world at large and for the United States specifically. During previous bouts of MEND violence against oil company targets, including the kidnapping of foreign workers, Nigerian petroleum production dropped by a reported 20%. On December 19, the Niger Delta Vigilante, yet another insurgent organization of the Niger Delta region, attacked a number of oil and government-related targets in the town of Okrika. As reported by Reuters:

Nigerian gunmen attacked an oil industry barge, a jetty and a government building on Wednesday, briefly capturing 18 Filipino crew and fighting with troops, officials said on Thursday. Violence has been on the increase for the past month in the Niger Delta, where about 2.1 million barrels of crude are pumped every day. Armed rebels say they are losing patience with peace talks launched in June by Nigeria’s new government.

Though it was unclear if this attack was inspired by MEND’s call for greater action against the oil industry, this attack is likely a harbinger of things to come. With the stated aim of waging a new kind of war in 2008, MEND has the capacity to precipitate a drop in production further than the 20% it has already accomplished. In view of record oil prices on the world market, increased instability in the Niger Delta has the capacity to raise prices to even more painful levels. As such, it is surprising that international observers are not giving greater attention to MEND and the other groups of its ilk.

By Clay Varney at 12:32 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Just follow the links in the Iran section of today’s DailyBriefing and ask yourself how wise it is to watch Russia supply Iran with the enriched uranium nuclear fuel to run the Bushehr light water reactor plant expected online in 2008.

This frees Iran to stockpile whatever uranium it produces domestically - and to continue to enrich it to higher levels - even if the Russian fuel is recovered and returned to Russia.

Iran will continue to veil its clandestine nuclear weapons program behind a visible nuclear power program, and we play along at our own peril. It is patently unwise for the West to trust the world’s foremost state sponsor of international terrorism.

Do the math. It isn’t rocket science.

By Steve Schippert at 11:33 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The As-Sahab Foundation, which represents al-Qaeda’s media wing, released its 95th propaganda product in 2007 on December 18, a lecture by Abu Yahya al-Libi titled “Al-Nafeer,” which is the trumpet blown before a battle. The video, which lasts 41 minutes and 31 seconds, is al-Libi’s 11th appearance this year and is not subtitled.

“Al-Nafeer” was released in 3 different file formats and 5 file sizes, zipped as a compressed and password-protected RAR file, and seeded across 318 free file transfer sites. The system timestamp on the videos indicate that they were created on December 18. Following standard operational security, the RAR files are protected with the randomly-generated password “a65dVTSf#YKers)mh&qiuS)op2#KJ32J3a.”

Al-Libi, a Libyan al-Qaeda commander and member of al-Qaeda’s Shari’a Committee widely considered to be the group’s “Defense Minister,” speaks in a classroom to a group of mujahideen that are off-camera. The classroom appears to be the same location where his November 7 as-Sahab video, “Final Session of the Shari’a Course Held at a Mujahideen Center,” was filmed. Al-Libi uses the opportunity for a call to arms against “the soldiers of the devil” in the theaters that are attracting al-Qaeda’s most attention - Iraq, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Algeria and Egypt. Saying that “Islam, Hijra (migration) and Jihad” are “the most important for a Muslim,” he compels his audience to fight where needed most and that Jihad knows no borders or nationality. Secular and moderate Muslims who argue against fighting, he mocks as “tools of Satan.” Dying in Jihad, he says, “is a guaranteed route to heaven.”

Abu Yahya Al-Libi, alias Mohammad Hassan, is one of the most charismatic al-Qaeda leaders featured in as-Sahab products. As a member of the group’s Shari’a Committee, he frequently bases his arguments on the Qur’an and Hadith and his videos are mainly used for indoctrination of the rank and file. He is one of the Bagram Four who escaped from U.S. custody in Bagram in 2005. His visibility on as-Sahab messaging products, which is not necessarily an indication of his position in the network’s leadership hierarchy, is second only to Ayman al-Zawahiri.

[Editor’s Note: We have begun posting the propaganda from al-Qaeda and others for the primary purpose of informing and educating both the general public and policy makers about the level to which the enemy has actively engaged in Information Warfare. Some of the messages contain graphic content. We at ThreatsWatch post these videos as evidence of the brutal nature of the enemy we face and the clear intent they have to kill those not aligned with them. Making the public aware of the nature of the enemy - as well as the often forgotten virtues of our own nation - is one of the primary missions of ThreatsWatch and the Center for Threat Awareness.]

By Nick Grace at 11:45 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Investigators have discovered that Mr Rauf left court in his uncle’s car, accompanied by two police officers, and was allowed to stop at a fast-food restaurant for lunch before going on to a mosque to pray.

The two officers waited in the car while Mr Rauf and his uncle, Mohammed Rafiq, entered the prayer room, but when they failed to emerge, the officers discovered that the men had escaped through the back door.

Investigators believe that the police escorts must have unlocked the suspect’s handcuffs to allow him to pray.

The new revelations have raised questions about whether the escape was the result of police negligence – or something more sinister. Hashmat Habib, Mr Rauf’s lawyer, yesterday questioned his client’s “mysterious disappearance from the court premises”, and alleged that Pakistani authorities were against his extradition. “There was no need for him to flee as he was quite happy to be extradited to Britain,” Mr Habib told The Times.

Further, it is difficult to fathom any police in any country so lacking in security sense as to allow a prisoner to leave a vehicle unbound and unaccompanied to slip into a building and out of sight.

Rashid Rauf is wanted in connection with London’s investigation into his uncle’s 2002 murder and is suspected of assisting Britons traveling to Pakistan for al-Qaeda training.

By Steve Schippert at 10:36 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The complex simplicity of the conflict that surrounds and permeates the Palestinian Territories is laid before the reader once again by Caroline Glick in the Jerusalem Post. In her column, she brings up the renewed Russian effort to supply armored personnel carriers to the Palestinian Authority, an effort renewed since the popular means for opposing Hamas has been to support Fatah and the PLO.

A week before Zoldan was murdered by US-funded PA security forces, Olmert approved the shipment of two million bullets for AK-47 assault rifles and 50 advanced Russian armored personnel carriers to those forces in Judea and Samaria. The delivery of the APCs has been delayed because the Palestinians insist that they be deployed with roof mounted machine guns and Israel has refused to accept that demand so far. In the meantime however, the bullets have apparently arrived safe and sound.

Note that the rejection of the APC’s came from the Palestinians - and not the Israelis - because they demanded the armored personnel carriers include turret-mounted machine guns. Israelis are right to fear these weapons may one day be seen coming downrange at them.

The Russians began this effort immediately after Hamas was elected into power in January 2006. The original allotment of equipment and weaponry included the 50 armored personnel carriers and, in addition, two helicopters.

Further upsetting the perceived unity of the Quartet, if the meeting in March goes well in the eyes of the Russians, they may go forward with planned sales of 50 armored personnel carriers and two helicopters to the Hamas-led PA. This will amount to not only a terrorist organization in governance, but a terrorist organization being openly armed by another state, with governance as the alibi. Russia, no stranger to Islamic terror, has never recognized Hamas as a terrorist organization.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Tuesday that Russia has pledged $10 million for the Palestinians in 2008. “In order to enhance Palestinian security forces, we have prepared 50 armored personnel carriers, communication and special equipment for the PNA (PA), and we expect countries in the region to assist in the delivery of this aid,” he said.

The Gaza Strip has been isolated since it was seized by Hamas in June. Lavrov warned that the area could turn into “a kind of high security prison” for its 1.5 million population as “punishment for their free expression of will,” referring to the January 2006 elections, which brought Hamas to power.

This is disingenuous at best. The Gaza strip is isolated because a terrorist group was elected into power after its power base - the Gaza Strip - was handed to the Palestinians when Ariel Sharon withdrew all Israeli forces from the territory.

What did Israel get in return for this gesture, one largely opposed by the Israeli public? A dramatic increase in rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip, from 179 attacks in 2005 to 946 and 783 respectively in the two years since the Israeli ‘occupiers’ disengaged from Gaza and Hamas came to power.

And while the blame for the plight of the Palestinians is always placed at the doorstep of Israel, one wonders why the Iranian support for Hamas in Gaza, for instance, is never scrutinized to determine just how much food, medicine and economic development is provided in contrast to the amount of weapons, explosives, ammunition and other equipment and training.

And the West pledges &7.4 billion in aid to the Palestinian Authority to pay for salaries and services neglected by them in deference toward more weapons, explosives and ammunition.

Israel left Gaza to the Palestinians. Occupiers no more. Now, they are ostensibly derided as prison guards while the Palestinians’ elected representative group fires record numbers of rockets and mortars into Israeli towns. And we continue to push for an official Palestinian state where no governance of an informal state can be mustered. This makes sense how?

By Steve Schippert at 3:04 AM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

The As-Sahab Foundation, which represents al-Qaeda’s media wing, released its 94th video in 2007 on December 16, an interview with Ayman al-Zawahiri called “A Review of Events: As-Sahab’s Fourth Interview with Shaykh Ayman al-Zawahiri.” The video, which lasts one hour and 37 minutes, is Zawahiri’s 14th appearance this year and consists of a question and answer session between the group’s operations chief and an off-camera producer. Subtitled in English, the video is a strategic PSYOP product meant to frame recent global events into al-Qaeda’s narrative and ensure that the narrative carries down to the rank and file. Although Arabic remains the lingua franca of al-Qaeda, an effort is underway among its members to maintain English-language forums and to distribute propaganda products in English.

As-Sahab and its distribution network, al-Fajr Media Center, have also announced preparations for a virtual “town hall meeting” with Zawahiri and are inviting users of the five major jihadi Web forums to submit questions over the next month for him to answer.

“A Review of Events” was released in 3 different file formats and 5 file sizes, zipped as a compressed and password-protected RAR file, and seeded across 445 free file transfer sites. Timestamps on some of the sites indicate that the videos were uploaded on the morning of December 16 using a free service provided by mirrorit.de that facilitates 3 simultaneous uploads at once. Interestingly, the system timestamp on the videos indicate that they were created between 5:00 and 6:30 am EDT on December 16, which suggests that the files were outputted quickly from a single computer using a single master file.

Following standard operational security, the RAR files are protected with the randomly-generated password “T<xP>)5(Dp)Z2L}p5s^dD$1z)(&kFwe7Y3OI(*&ew343hT.”

The video features segments of narrated B-roll, including clips from Ansar al-Sunnah (now called Ansar al-Islam), al-Furqan Media, and Western documentaries and news programs. Based on an analysis of the video, the segues were produced after the original interview had been recorded and already subtitled.

Zawahiri hits a number of topics: Iraq, Israel/Palestine, Algeria, Egypt and Pakistan. He begins by calling the Mujahideen the “Muslim vanguard” of the Ummah and that it is leading to a “Jihadi awakening” and unification, which the recent merger between al-Qaeda and the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group shows. He spends a great deal of time discussing Iraq and the major controversies that have plagued the Web forums since October: success of the Sunni Awakening movements in Iraq, the Islamic State of Iraq’s loss of momentum, and al-Jazeera’s coverage of Usama bin Laden’s October message that criticized the Islamic State of Iraq (ISI). He says that ISI’s loss of momentum is “empty propaganda” and applauds at length the efforts of “the unknown soldiers of Jihadi media” for “demolishing the myths and fantasies” of the West. Nevertheless, he suggests that the ISI is indeed in trouble by discussing at length the reasons why Sunni militant groups in Iraq should cooperate with it.

“(A)ll the Mujahid brothers in Iraq, who are the hope and pride of the Ummah, must develop what their brothers arrived at an complete and finish it, and not allow it to be detracted from, criticized or mocked,” he states. “They know that the Islamic State of Iraq is the primary force involved in confronting the Crusader-Zionist aggression against Iraq, and this demands that they cooperate with it, guide it and be honest with it like a concerned and sympathetic brother. In the same way, our beloved brothers in the Islamic State of Iraq (may Allah help and protect it and grant it victory) must open their hearts to their brothers, and rush to them and be concerned for them, and everyone must humble themselves before their believing brothers.”

Most interestingly, he calls upon the Iraqi Sunni militia Ansar al-Sunnah, which changed its name to Ansar al-Islam on December 7, to join the ISI, calling Ansar members “the lions of Islam in Iraq.” Ansar al-Islam products, including a video and a communique, have recently appeared with top-billing on the major Jihadi Web sites - an honor reserved primarily for as-Sahab, al-Furqan and al-Fajr products.

[Editor’s Note: We have begun posting the propaganda from al-Qaeda and others for the primary purpose of informing and educating both the general public and policy makers about the level to which the enemy has actively engaged in Information Warfare. Some of the messages contain graphic content. We at ThreatsWatch post these videos as evidence of the brutal nature of the enemy we face and the clear intent they have to kill those not aligned with them. Making the public aware of the nature of the enemy - as well as the often forgotten virtues of our own nation - is one of the primary missions of ThreatsWatch and the Center for Threat Awareness.]

By Nick Grace at 1:46 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

It wasn’t the only incident of data (in)security this past year, but it was possibly one of the worst data breaches in history. The story of the TJ Max data breach is perhaps little known by the general population, except by those who were victimized. That’s reportedly near 100 million records of shoppers who used their credit cards last year at those stores. Even with its satirical tone, Chief Security Officer magazine rated this the worst of the worst of the 2007 data security breaches.

The TJX Companies, a large retailer that operates over 2,000 retail stores under brands such as Bob’s Stores, HomeGoods, Marshalls, T.J. Maxx and A.J. Wright said on Wednesday that it suffered a massive computer breach on a portion of its network that handles credit card, debit card, check, and merchandise transactions in the U.S. and abroad.

Certainly, at the time, the press was full of stories about the breach and its potential impact. But what is now being disclosed is that the TJ Max people may have known about the data breach as much as two months earlier than they’ve let on. Some reports now suggest that TJX learned of its massive data breach on Oct 3, 2006, more than two months earlier than it told the government it first learned of the breach, according to an attorney representing one of the banks suing the retail chain. The time lapse is attributed to the “planning” of the announcement and to the fixes that were to be put in place.

A presentation I attended on cyber security a few weeks ago emphasized the TJ Max data breach. But it’s not just TJ Max and credit card information that gets stolen. In 2007, there were numerous other reports of data breaches at federal agencies, at universities and at businesses. The FTC website, Dealing with a Data Breach - Deter, Detect, Defend - Avoid ID Theft gives a good overview of steps to be taken.

It is also reported that as many as a half a million database servers aren’t protected by firewalls, security experts contend the findings constitute a call to action for security pros and database administrators everywhere.

As we enter the final stages of the Holiday on-line purchasing season, cyber security is more important than ever. Cyber security starts right at home with your own computer. It starts with maintaining security on your own business computers. It’s not just having an anti-virus/anti-phishing software program on your systems. It’s not just having a firewall on your servers or personal computer. It also includes password security. Is your password a static and reusable one, or is it one-time and dynamic? Hopefully, you aren’t one of the people who use Post-It Notes to write your passwords. Even moreso, hopefully, you haven’t a file on your computer listing all of your key passwords.

One of your New Years resolutions should be evaluating your computer and data security and making changes and upgrades.

By Jay Fraser at 9:23 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Even though European voters overwhelmingly rejected the proposed EU Constitution two years ago, it simply doesn’t seem to matter. The Washington Post reports that E.U. leaders have endorsed a new Charter, one that bypasses referendum and institutes the changes rejected by the people essentially through governmental fiat.

European leaders on Thursday signed a new treaty intended to revitalize efforts to build a more united and powerful European Union, replacing a proposed constitution rejected by many voters two years ag