Osama bin Laden’s awaited speech, titled “Message to the European Peoples,” was released on the Internet this evening. It was first delivered to al Jazeera approximately 9 hours before its public distribution on the Internet and was also the second new as-Sahab product disseminated on November 29. This is bin Laden’s fifth appearance in 2007 and since September alone.

“Message to the European Peoples” is the 90th video product produced by as-Sahab, al-Qaeda’s central media wing, this year and actually comprises of three videos and a stand-alone audio file. The three videos are individually subtitled in German, English and Pashtu.

The videos were posted by “Ekhlaas Correspondent” on behalf of al-Fajr Media, which regularly posts communiques and messaging products on behalf of frontline al-Qaeda nodes. Al-Fajr, however, normally does not distribute as-Sahab materials, which represent al-Qaeda Senior Leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and is best known for distributing content recorded in Iraq, Somalia, the Philippines and other theaters.

Interestingly, the method of distribution for the latest message also varies from normal practice for as-Sahab products and resembles methods used by the Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF), which is considered the media wing for al-Qaeda in Europe. GIMF products are frequently produced in or subtitled in German.

“Message to the European Peoples” is the second bin Laden message that has been delivered to al Jazeera before its public release on the Internet. The previous bin Laden product, “To Our People in Iraq” on October 22, was also released to al Jazeera ahead of its Internet distribution. Since the intercept of a working draft of bin Laden’s September 7 video by the private SITE Institute, al-Qaeda has varied its channels and methods of delivery and distribution, especially for products containing new material from bin Laden. As-Sahab features have been assigned longer and randomly generated passwords and have also been posted by different Jihadi forum users, which suggests that al-Qaeda has hardened its operational security.

[Editor’s Note: We have begun posting the propaganda from al-Qaeda and others for the primary purpose of informing and educating both the general public and policy makers about the level to which the enemy has actively engaged in Information Warfare. Some of the messages contain graphic content. We at ThreatsWatch post these videos as evidence of the brutal nature of the enemy we face and the clear intent they have to kill those not aligned with them. Making the public aware of the nature of the enemy - as well as the often forgotten virtues of our own nation - is one of the primary missions of ThreatsWatch and the Center for Threat Awareness.]

By Nick Grace at 1:23 AM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

As-Sahab, al-Qaeda’s central media wing, released its 89th video this year and the fifth installment of “American Holocaust/Hell for the Americans in the Land of Khorasan (Islamic Emirate)” today on the main al-Qaeda message forums. The video, which is billed as “Ambushing a Convoy of Apostates in Khost,” lasts a total of 29 seconds and features footage of tactical operations in Afghanistan.

It was posted in 3 video formats and 3 different file sizes and seeded across a total of 298 free file transfer sites on November 28, including cocoshare.cc, filefactory.com, hostupload.net, files.to, savefile.info, youuploadit.com, megaupload.com, rapidshare.com and archive.org.

The video itself, however, was last modified on November 6th. Following standard operational security, the files are zipped in the RAR format and protected with the randomly-generated password “a*m76nk,ihr08dVy)h!#5Z&^#3m5kedfa.”

[Editor’s Note: We have begun posting the propaganda from al-Qaeda and others for the primary purpose of informing and educating both the general public and policy makers about the level to which the enemy has actively engaged in Information Warfare. Some of the messages contain graphic content. We at ThreatsWatch post these videos as evidence of the brutal nature of the enemy we face and the clear intent they have to kill those not aligned with them. Making the public aware of the nature of the enemy - as well as the often forgotten virtues of our own nation - is one of the primary missions of ThreatsWatch and the Center for Threat Awareness.]

By Nick Grace at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Vice Admiral Robert Moeller, AFRICOM’s Deputy to the Commander for Military Operations, and Ambassador Mary Carlin Yates, the Deputy to the Commander for Civil-Military Activities, toured Nigeria’s capital of Abuja in an effort to garner support for AFRICOM’s establishment among Nigerian government officials. Moeller and Yates, General William Ward’s two deputies in the AFRICOM command structure, visited with the chief of defense staff, the foreign affairs minister, and the national security adviser. Nigeria is a crucial state to get on the AFRICOM bandwagon due to its status as a major power in West Africa. At a press conference held in the US embassy in Abuja, Vice Admiral Moeller, with whom I previously spoke via a Department of Defense Blogger’s Roundtable, offered a quote addressing some of the concerns surrounding basing on the continent:

“AFRICOM does not intend to station large operational units in Africa,” said Moeller, adding that if invited by African countries, small forces could come in for specific tasks and then leave.

“It has nothing to do [with] oil resources in the Gulf of Guinea. The resources there are Nigerian. They belong to Nigeria and to the countries of the region. What we do is work with partner nations to make sure that the resources are available for the global community, and for what they are intended for.”

Prior to arriving in Nigeria, the duo stopped in Burkina Faso and will now travel to Djibouti, the small nation in the Horn of Africa where a contingent of American forces is based. Though the larger campaign of establishing support for AFRICOM is vital for its effective operation, bringing Nigeria into the fold is especially crucial due to its special position in the region. Nigeria has come out in opposition to the command in recent days. As reported by the BBC:

The Nigerian government has said it would not allow its country to be used as a base for the US-African military command, Africom. At a meeting of the National Council of State, President Umaru Yar’Adua said that Nigeria was also opposed to any such bases in West Africa.

Though no word is yet forthcoming on the Nigerian reception to the visit of Yates and Moeller, the mere occurrence of such a meeting is encouraging. The United States and Nigeria may find themselves forced into cooperation out of necessity, especially concerning operations of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, an insurgent organization in Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta region. This organization presents a significant threat to Nigeria’s control of its own resources and the availability of these resources for the global community.

By Clay Varney at 1:17 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Top Taliban commander Mullah Dadullah was known for many things. The grizzled one-legged fighter loved attention and frequently reached out to the international press, including al Jazeera and ABC News, and also ensured that his activities - including beheadings where he personally wielded the knife - were captured on film. One such display that the “Butcher of Kandahar” organized was the distribution of “ticket to heaven” vouchers for would-be suicide bombers.

Courtesy of the LEE Media Network, an Internet group that is known for producing and distributing Taliban propaganda, a short seven minute clip of Dadullah and his “tickets to heaven” has appeared on the Web. The video features Dadullah greeting four suicide bombers and asking their name and family affiliation while a masked clerk dutifully registers their information into a ledger. He then personally handwrites a “ticket to heaven” on a small piece of paper and passes it to each smiling mujahid. The video then transitions to a farewell ceremony for the four would-be martyrs and then is followed by four minutes of their individual martyrdom statements. A voiceover in Pashtu hails each bomber as text scrolls that displays the alleged dates of their suicides.

The video appears to have been recorded in January or February 2006 and produced in October 2006. Dadullah, himself, was killed during an Afghan and NATO raid in Afghanistan on May 12, 2007, and it is not clear who signed his “ticket to heaven.”

[Editor’s Note: We have begun posting the propaganda from al-Qaeda and others for the primary purpose of informing and educating both the general public and policy makers about the level to which the enemy has actively engaged in Information Warfare. Some of the messages contain graphic content. We at ThreatsWatch post these videos as evidence of the brutal nature of the enemy we face and the clear intent they have to kill those not aligned with them. Making the public aware of the nature of the enemy - as well as the often forgotten virtues of our own nation - is one of the primary missions of ThreatsWatch and the Center for Threat Awareness.]

By Nick Grace at 12:01 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Leading Shiite cleric in Iraq Ali Sistani Tuesday banned the killing of Iraqis, particularly the Sunnis, and urged the Shiites to protect their brother Sunnis.

Sistani bans the Iraqi blood in general the blood of Sunnis in particular. His announcement came during a meeting with a delegation from Sunni clerics from southern and northern Iraq. The clerics are visiting Najaf to participate in the first national conference for Ulemaa of Shiites and Sunnis.

Sistani called on the Shiites to protect their Sunni brothers, according to Sheikh Khaled Al-Mulla, head of the authority of Ulemaa of Southern Iraq, noting that the Fatwa of Sistani would have positive impacts nationwide.

“I am a servant of all Iraqis, there is no difference between a Sunni, a Shitte or a Kurd or a Christian,” Al-Mulla quoted Sistani as saying during the meeting.

Sistani warned the Sunni clerics from the plans of the enemies to plant seeds of discord among the Iraqis.

The visiting delegation voiced relief for the meeting and said they backed Sistani’s stance.

In fact, what exists is a deep rivalry between the revolutionary Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini and the traditionalist Grand Ayatollah Sistani, both claiming authority over the Shi’a faith. While the Khomeinist revolutionary Khameini clearly believes in Shi’a theocracy, the Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani believes that the faith can exist within a democracy without theological conflict. And while the Iranians work to spin the growing Sunni tribal rejection of al-Qaeda as Americans “negotiating with terrorists,” Sistani himself has always had open channels of communication with American forces and the Iraqi government.

Iran Evidence Turned SCIRI, Sistani Popular In Iran
It was through those open channels that the United States clearly shared evidence of Iranian material support for specific Sunni groups engaged in targeting Shi’a Iraqis in attacks. And it was clearly compelling enough to cause Iraq’ largest Shi’a political party to seek guidance from the traditionalist (and pro-democracy) al-Sistani instead of the revolutionary Iranian leaders….

….Sistani’s appeal does not end at the Iraqi border, as Iranians increasingly observe his leadership with interest and fondness. Some are “intrigued by the more freewheeling experiment in Shi’ite empowerment taking place across the border in Iraq,” which is fundamentally different in approach than the Iranian theocratic brand of dictated observance and obedience. The Boston Globe’s Anne Barnard reports that within Tehran’s own central bazaar, “an increasing number of merchants are sending their religious donations, a 20 percent tithe expected from all who can spare it, to Iraq’s most senior Shi’ite cleric.”

Again, the significance of this development from Sistani is difficult to overstate, especially once one appreciates Ayatollah Sistani’s position of leadership atop the Shi’a faith…not to mention his moderation and pragmatism.

By Steve Schippert at 4:18 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The BBC reports that Ethiopian-backed Somali government forces have responded militarily against attacks on Ethiopian bases by the Shabaab, the armed wing and youth movement of the Islamic Courts Union. (_Shabaab_ translates to ‘youth,’ and al-Shabaab is a common name for jihadi youth movements.) A minimum of six bases were targeted by the Shabaab in simultaneous attacks in Somalia’s capital of Mogadishu.1 This violence further highlights the escalating violence in Mogadishu which has caused a reported 60% of the city’s population to flee in recent days. According to the report:

Our correspondent says the insurgents say they have been encouraged by the admission by Mr Meles [Ethiopia’s Prime Minister] that his forces were becoming bogged down in Somalia.

In an effort damper some of the violence 1,600 Ugandan troops have deployed in Mogadishu as part of a slow to materialize promised 8,000-man African Union force. At this juncture, this unit is much more likely to become a party to violence rather than a referee of the violence. The founder of the Shabaab, Adan Hashi Ayro, has declared that the Ugandans will be fair game. According to Voice of America:

On [November 14], the elusive founder and leader of the Shabbab, Adan Hashi Ayro, is believed to have posted an audio recording on a Somali Web site, urging his fighters not to differentiate between Ugandan soldiers and Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu and to destroy the peacekeeping force.

Ayro, who was trained by al-Qaida in Afghanistan and is on a U.S. list of terror suspects, was a top military commander in the Islamic Courts Union before the Islamists lost power in an Ethiopia-led offensive last December.

Since then, Shabbab fighters have led a fierce insurgency against tens of thousands of remaining Ethiopian troops in Somalia, and against the secular Somali interim government supported by the government in Addis Ababa and the United States.

With Zenawi saying his forces cannot withdraw under the current circumstances due to divisions in the Somali government and the lack of peacekeeping units, the violence will continue in Mogadishu, particularly in light of Ayro’s pledge to target such units.

By Clay Varney at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Despite the recent loss of numerous cells across Iraq, the media wing of al-Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq (ISI) has produced a second video product, which the al-Fajr Media Center posted Tuesday night on the main Jihadi message boards. The one minute video, called “Destruction Of An-American Hummer Vehicle,” is the latest in the ongoing ISI media series “Roman and Apostate Hell in al-Rafedain Land” and, according to the accompanying Web statement, shows an IED attack on a hummer in the az-Zobayer bin al-Awaam region of Diyala Province.

Al-Furqan, al-Qaeda’s media network inside Iraq, has been heavily targeted by coalition forces since the surge peaked in June. Its operations in Mosul were dismantled over the Summer and in the past week nearly 30 of its operatives in Samarra have been killed and captured by coalition forces. Al-Furqan perviously maintained a large output of propaganda products but it practically went silent between September and late November. The sudden appearance of video releases suggests a renewed effort by al-Qaeda to produce.

“These videos are especially crucial at this point in time,” said military analyst Bill Roggio of the Long War Journal. “We’ve seen a drop in attacks and al-Qaeda needs to show it can still conduct operations and is relevant. With the targeting of these media cells they need to show that their capacity to conduct and record ops is still in place. In 2 months one of the most sophisticated insurgencies on the planet from both a military and propaganda standpoint hasn’t been able to produce videos. That alone speaks volumes on where al-Qaeda in Iraq currently stands.”

With competing videos produced almost on a daily basis from militias and militant groups that are members of the ISI umbrella, it is even more critical for al-Furqan to show that it can produce. “They’re vital for fundraising, recruiting and also morale for the guys in theater,” Roggio continued. “They pull the videos up on their cell phones. They want to see results of operations.”

[Editor’s Note: We have begun posting the propaganda from al-Qaeda and others for the primary purpose of informing and educating both the general public and policy makers about the level to which the enemy has actively engaged in Information Warfare. Some of the messages, such as this one, contain graphic content. We at ThreatsWatch post these videos as evidence of the brutal nature of the enemy we face and the clear intent they have to kill those not aligned with them. Making the public aware of the nature of the enemy - as well as the often forgotten virtues of our own nation - is one of the primary missions of ThreatsWatch and the Center for Threat Awareness.]

By Nick Grace at 2:25 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The old saying was publish or perish. Scientists or academic researchers knew that peer review of their work was critical to gaining acceptance. But since September 11th, serious questions have arisen as to the appropriateness of certain types of research in general, and then the publication of sensitive but not classified information. This first became an issue for discussion when Dr. Mark Buller of St. Louis University and his team developed a vaccine resistant strain of mousepox in 2003 with funding from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

Back then the question was whether the benefits of doing the research, especially when it came to especiallyparticularly virulent and new bio-terror agents, was prudent, and whether the publication of the results outweighed the potential for educated terrorists having the information and potentially being able to duplicate it.

This was discussed in the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) book, Biotechnology Research In An Age of Terrorism: Confronting the Dual Use Dilemma (note that this is the pre-publication proof of the book).

This book confronted the dual-use dilemma; there is a public good served by performing certain types of high-risk research in biotechnology while there is also the possibility that publication of the results of this research might “be subverted for misuse by hostile individuals or nations.” Without getting into the greater detail of this 100+ page report that I read preparing for a presentation I made in May 2004 on “Bioterrorism and Homeland Security,” the question was whether the publication of federally-funded research should be filtered through a review process to determine which sensitive information should not be published.

This issue was discussed in greater detail at a symposium of the New York Academy of Sciences (NYAS), National Security and Biological Research: What Are the Boundaries? held on November 11, 2003 in which the balance between scientific integrity and law enforcement (national security) issues were discussed and debated.

In my opinion, it is worth the time to listen to and to follow the slides of the kick-off presentation by Ron Atlas, the dean of the graduate school and co-director for the Center for Deterrence of Biowarfare and Bioterrorism at the University of Louisville, Kentucky. Atlas was one of the architects of the NAS report touched on above.

At its core, Atlas’ presentation addresses the question about proposed bio-technological research, “Is it safe for human safety, and is it safe for potential misuse?”

• “This not about censorship or saying to scientists, ‘don’t do this research,’ or to the editors of scientific journals, ‘don’t publish this research.”
• “We need a dialogue among people who normally will not and do not speak to each other— in the national security community and on the front pages of Science, Nature, and beyond.”
• “This is not a problem that the United States can or should face alone.”

A subsequent example of the “publish or not publish” issue arose in June 2005 when the federal government asked the National Academy of Sciences not to publish a research paper that feds describe as a “road map for terrorists” on how to contaminate the nation’s milk supply.

It was initially posted on a password protected website designed to give journalists access to advance copies of articles slated for publication in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. However, some people who downloaded the paper asked the Food and Drug Administration for comment. The FDA in turn, addressed the issue with the Department of Health and Human Services, which asked the academy to stop the article’s publication.

The paper “is a road map for terrorists and publication is not in the interests of the United States,” HHS Assistant Secretary Stewart Simonson wrote in a letter to the science academy chief Dr. Bruce Alberts.

The paper gives “very detailed information on vulnerability nodes” in the milk supply chain and “includes … very precise information on the dosage of botulinum toxin needed to contaminate the milk supply to kill or injure large numbers of people,” Simonson wrote.

“It seems clear on its face that publication of this manuscript could have very serious public health and national security consequences.”

So this brings us to the current timeframe. Of course, it is only five years since the NAS and NYAS reports. On October 18, 2007 a new report, Science and Security in a Post 9/11 World: A Report Based on Regional Discussions Between the Science and Security Communities was released.

This report addresses the question of how we reconcile heightened security measures adopted in the wake of 9/11 with the open and free international exchange of scientific experts and ideas.

The tragedy of September 11, 2001, the subsequent anthrax attacks, and ongoing terror threats internationally have markedly changed national and international security. As concerns about threats and terrorist activities have become global, so have the rapid transfer of information and communication. The confluence of the globalization of business and the revolution in information storage and transmittal has changed the landscape upon which to build national and international security. This requires a re-examination of the security measures developed during the days of the Cold War to assess whether those tools are still appropriate and to determine how they are affecting the current science and technology enterprises.

Among the key issues discussed in this report are:

• The United States’ porous borders could allow terrorists to enter the country and attack U.S. citizens. Some of these terrorists might pose as (or in fact be) students in order to gain entry and find cover in a university community.
• there is concern that terrorists might use U.S. advanced technology against us. The presence of dangerous pathogens or other research materials that could be used as weapons pose a potential vulnerability at some universities. Moreover, there is concern that terrorists aspiring to apply advanced technology to the development of weapons might develop the technical capability to do so through a university education.
• a more generalized concern is present about state actors and their access to advanced technologies of military significance. That is, because the U.S. military edge is built on the skillful application of advanced technology, there is concern that other countries might benefit militarily from access to scientific or technical information available in the university environment.
• concerns are present arising from the reality that America’s economic well-being is founded on the maintenance of its scientific and technological edge and that foreign countries could seek to penetrate U.S. universities (as well as U.S. businesses) for the purpose of obtaining early access to technology in order to supplant U.S. capabilities and reap the economic gains for themselves.

This is another audio file well worth the time to listen to for those concerned about the policy debates over sharing of sensitive scientific knowledge.

To strengthen the essential role that science and technology play in maintaining national and economic security, the United States should ensure the open exchange of unclassified research despite the small risk that it could be misused for harm by terrorists or rogue nations, says a new report by the National Research Council.

Again, the question is “sensitive but not classified information,” and how or whether to share it around the world. Congress wanted to re-look at the question of balancing science and security. The report is discussed in greater detail in a recent issue of the Homeland Security Daily Wire.

According to an article written by John Timmer of ArsTechnica, National Academies tackles international science in the age of terrorism, the report:

1) views the continued exchange of scientific expertise as an essential component of national security;

2) calls for efforts to smooth and simplify the handling of research-related security concerns;

3) strongly supports a continuation of an environment within the US that promotes the international exchange of science, arguing that it’s essential for continued US leadership in science:

“Foreign-born scientists and engineers come to the United States, stay in large numbers, and make significant contributions to America’s ability to achieve and maintain technological and economic leadership. Given the current diminishing rates of new scientific and engineering talent in the United States—the subject of other reports and a topic of national concern—the size of the US research and development effort cannot be sustained without a significant and steady infusion of foreign nationals.”

Further, the NAS report argues that the United States relies on technological and financial superiority for much of its military and security activities, and a reduction of scientific activity would adversely affect both of these. Examined by the committee were clauses in federal contracts and grants that restrict the use of foreign researchers, decisions to limit scientific publications on sensitive topics, the restrictions imposed by “sensitive but unclassified” designations, and the management of biological information and agents.

One of the more interesting observations made in the current NAS report is that many of the potentially dangerous biological technologies are either developed or spread internationally. And further, given that a basic education in molecular biology is sufficient for someone to develop dangerous biological materials, although not a specific purpose of the Report, it suggested that the United States adopt more generous and liberal immigration policies (“free movement of human capital”). Essentially, rather than keeping foreign scientists out of the country, make it easier for them to enter, all as a means of increasing security.

All of this is placed against the backdrop of the 2008 report by the Battelle Memorial Institute that makes it clear that the U.S. is losing its global R&D dominance; in a decade or so, global R&D will be roughly equally divided among the U.S., Europe, and India-China; U.S. benefits from European, Asian companies outsourcing their R&D to U.S. labs.

There is growing equalization of R&D activity occurring in parallel with declining U.S. dominance, with outsourcing and offshoring growing in significance. “The U.S. will continue to dominate for up to the next 10 years or so, but after that decade activity is likely to be split into thirds with North America, the European Union and Asia — dominated by China and India — holding approximately equal shares,” the report concluded. In addition, outsourcing and offshoring of R&D is increasing, with the U.S. leading the trend. Conversely, the EU and Asia are increasingly offshoring R&D to the United States in order to be in a better position to enhance their market shares. Indeed, the United States is benefiting from the continued in-sourcing of R&D. “The globalization of R&D will continue to grow, and competition for research funds will become more intense,” said Jules Duga, a senior researcher at Battelle and an expert on R&D trends.

The issue is no longer the simplistic “publish or perish.” Dealing with scientific discoveries and advancements at a time when the free flow of information and access to reports, even perhaps those reports contained in this entry, is open to almost anyone with a computer and an Internet connection is problematic. Allowing sensitive information on new discoveries to travel free around the World in a matter of seconds leads to the very real question of National security versus freedom of speech issues (or at least issues of extreme censorship).

By Jay Fraser at 10:07 AM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

A new banner appeared on several Jihadist message boards this evening to advance a forthcoming as-Sahab product featuring Osama bin Laden called “A Message to the European People.” The accompanying forum thread, written in Arabic by a user with the name “Terrorism Lover” who regularly posts as-Sahab announcements, urges readers to cross-post the announcement on English-language Web sites in order to “give (Westerners) the unseen truth of their failed war.” The message and news wire stories it has generated have been cross-posted on dozens of other forums and blogs, including leading English-language Jihadi propaganda message boards.

The upcoming statement will mark bin Laden’s fifth appearance in 2007, all of which have been disseminated since September, suggesting to counterterrorism analysts that the head of al-Qaeda is comfortable with his current security. According to former Indian intelligence chief B. Raman, “The sudden increase in the frequency of his messages reflected his confidence that he was now in a safe position where the American intelligence agencies and security forces would not be able to reach him and where there would be little likelihood of his being betrayed by those tempted by the American offer of huge cash rewards for anyone helping in having him killed or captured.”

While the product is likely to be in video form it is unclear whether it will feature new footage of bin Laden or recently recorded audio. The photo used in as-Sahab’s promotional banner appears to be an old stock photo.

The previous as-Sahab product featuring bin Laden, “To Our People in Iraq,” was delivered to al Jazeera before its distribution on the Internet and led to Jihadist outrage at the Qatar-based news channel for not airing the speech in full. The appearance of the advance banner on the main forums suggests that the new message will be an Internet release.

By Nick Grace at 7:15 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

As noted in Brits Spin Basra Surrender as Victory, it is reasonable to see the British spin on their withdrawal from the fight and the ensuing drop in attacks on their forces as a significantly flawed bit of analysis. That said, Basra is not lost or surrendered.

The Iraqi Army has continued to expand its presence in the province and currently maintains elements of the Iraqi Army’s 10th Infantry Division and 14th Mechanized Division. In addition, the 9th Armored Division’s 3d Brigade is deployed to Basra. The 10th IA Division includes 4 Special Troops Battalions.

There is little news of late regarding any IA operations in the region, and we have little to gauge progress on border enforcement - aside from a recent briefing which stressed the training center and Basra’s role as one of the regional centers for the Department of Border Enforcement.

The good news is that when the push in Basra comes it is likely to be Iraqi led.

By Marvin Hutchens at 6:15 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

In a land already lacking in many basic freedoms, Burma took a turn for the worst when the military government imposed draconian restrictions on citizens with access to the Internet. While access to the Internet itself may not be a right, the key role it plays in communication means that precluding access restricts free speech. The will to overcome such restrictions however, triumphed to a degree:

Savvy young bloggers in Myanmar are breaking through the military junta’s tight Internet controls to post photos and videos of swelling anti-government protests, experts said Tuesday.

The government blocks almost every website that carries news or information about the Southeast Asian country, and even bars access to web-based email.

But an army of young techies in Yangon works around the clock to circumvent the censors, posting pictures and videos on blogs almost as soon as the protests happen.

Many of these images have been picked up by mainstream news organisations, because bloggers have managed to capture images that no one else can get.

The development and employment mechanisms to overcome state-sponsored repression of this nature are not new, but the importance of such efforts is reinforced during contentious world events. For a more comprehensive review of related events read the OpenNet Initiative report Pulling the Plug.

By Michael Tanji at 5:50 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The Christian Science Monitor report is headlined Syria’s role at US talks may help Lebanon. Within it, analysts are cited noting the likely inclusion of talks on the Golan Heights - captured 1967 after Syria invaded Israel - and ongoing speculation that Israel may ultimately return the land to Syria.

Syria, which exerts powerful influence over the Lebanese opposition to the Western-backed government in Beirut, is attending the Annapolis conference after US officials agreed that the fate of the Golan Heights – Syrian territory occupied by Israel since 1967 – could be discussed.

The presence at Annapolis of Syria, a close ally of Iran and a staunch foe of Israel, may herald the beginning of a thaw in the icy relations between Damascus and Washington, which some analysts believe could help stabilize Lebanon and weaken Syria’s relationship with Iran.

“There’s been a very clear link in the past two weeks between the Lebanon crisis and Annapolis,” says Ibrahim Hamidi, the influential Damascus correspondent of the pan-Arab Al-Hayat daily. “It’s part of a process that focuses again on the Arab-Israeli struggle. Definitely, it will have a positive impact on Lebanon.”

Here is how this article should be properly digested:

Of course there is a link between the crisis in Lebanon and Syrian interests in the Golan as well as others. Please recall with clarity that Hizballah sparked the 2006 Summer War with Israel at a time precisely when the UN investigation into Syrian involvement in the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was coming to a head and Syrian reference to the UN Security Council seemed imminent.

Please also recall with clarity that Hizballah sparked the 2006 Summer War with Israel at a time precisely when Iran was about to be referred to the UN Security Council (again) for consideration of sanctions regarding their non-cooperation with the IAEA on its clandestine nuclear program.

In short: The Lebanon crisis is now and always has been about Syrian and Iranian interests. No matter what Hassan Nassrallah or anyone else says. Lebanon has the regrettable fortune of location - at the crossroads of regional interests greater than her own ability to stand.

So while Lebanon dances on the precipice of disaster once more, the music is conducted by Syrian and Iranian composers yet again. Or, more properly, still. The sheet music has long been written and changes little with time.

By Steve Schippert at 1:50 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

“We thought, ‘If 90% of the violence is directed at us, what would happen if we stepped back?’,” Gen Binns said.

About 500 British troops moved out of one of Saddam Hussein’s palaces in the heart of Basra in early September, joining some 4,500 at a garrison at an airport on the city’s edge.

Since then there has been a “remarkable and dramatic drop in attacks,” Gen Binns said in an interview in Baghdad on Thursday.

“The motivation for attacking us was gone, because we’re no longer patrolling the streets,” he said.

As Herschel Smith notes at The Captain’s Journal, Iranian Militias Continue to Conduct Operations in Iraq, and they are based largely in southern Iraq - and pervasive in Basra. Disengaging from them seeking the safety of Zero Loss is a sad commentary on the state of the political direction ultimately guiding the British Military.

I cannot believe the nerve of the British leadership. What a ridiculously convoluted and euphemistic way of saying “We surrendered the city to JAM [Jaish Al Mahdi] rather than engage them with effective force, all for the sake of avoiding further attacks on us.” I am sure you are already aware of the Brits’ spinning of their retreat and surrender of the city, as well as their persistent defense of their “softly, softly” approach to losing. I simply could not resist pointing out yet another example of their shameless rationalization of a self-imposed defeat here. They haven’t the desire to carry out the mission.

By Steve Schippert at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

I posted a very brief farewell to Australian Prime Minister John Howard at The Tank on National Review Online Saturday after he lost the election to Kevin Rudd. He is an ally that will be sorely missed. In Australia Drifts From America, I introduced Prime Minister-elect Kevin Rudd for those who may not be familiar with him.

Incoming Prime Minister-elect Kevin Rudd has two key items on his agenda as it relates to the existing relationship with the United States.

First is his intent to pull out Australian troops from Iraq. This means less on the ground than it does in the general direction of the new Australian leadership going forward. The United States has not lost an ally, but the degree to which it has enjoyed support will be at an immediate ebb.

This will be exemplified by the second item on his agenda with respect to relations with the United States: Pushing for Australian ratification of the Kyoto Accord and isolating America in dissent.

The Kyoto Accord is an uneven, unfair and unbalanced economically disastrous ambition that - if enacted - would severely impair American industry and damage our economy. This, of course, is the reason so many nations - such as China - fervently support its implementation, not the environmental reasons it is said to address. The environmental aspects are merely the tool used to generate emotionally-based Western support for the measures.

The Mandarin-speaking Rudd is also expected to move toward closer ties with China as he leads a slow drift away from America. How his intended policies are - or are not - carried out will be important to follow.

Rudd has a majority parliament on his side to enable the actions he says he seeks.

John Howard, like Tony Blair, will be sorely missed.

Take Blackfive’s advice and read also Jules Crittenden on Howard’s defeat and Rudd’s victory.

By Steve Schippert at 1:09 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Al-Furqan, the official media wing of al-Qaeda’s Islamic State of Iraq (ISI), posted a new video on Saturday - its first since September - called “Implementing Allah’s Rule On Nine Elements Of Interior Commandos.” The video lasts 3 minutes and 14 seconds and shows the gruesome assassination of nine Iraqi men by masked mujahideen with a bullet to the back of the head. It is included in the group’s ongoing series of video releases called “Roman and Apostate Hell in al-Rafedain Land.”

The murders appear to be recent. Although the video and accompanying Web posting do not state when the men were killed, the New York Times reported the discovery of four dead bodies in Salahuddin, including three floating in the Tigris River, on November 20.

Al-Furqan represents the “Information Ministry” of the ISI and, until recently, maintained a large output of propaganda products, including short videos and occasional PDF magazines. Its network of media cells across Iraq, each manned by a media emir, cameramen and digital video editors, suffered tremendous setbacks over the Summer and was practically dismantled by U.S. forces. A total of eight cells have been disrupted and 24 propaganda operatives captured and killed between July and October. The head of al-Furqan, Khalid Abdul Fatah Da’ud Mahmud Al Mashadani, was captured on July 4 and, according to The Long War Journal, revealed that not only is the ISI a notional group created by al-Qaeda but that its head, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, is a character performed by a local actor.

The appearance of the new release by al-Furqan has been heavily promoted on Jihadi Web sites and message boards across the world. With nearly one or two new videos produced by militant Sunni and Shiite groups inside Iraq every day, al-Furqan is at risk of losing its preeminent position in the war’s cyber threater. This video is not only a signal to jihadis that the ISI’s media teams are still “in the game” but also creates the perception that the ISI continues to control territory inside Iraq - critical issues for fundraising and recruitment.

A Note from ThreatsWatch Editors:
We have begun posting the propaganda from al-Qaeda and others for the primary purpose of informing and educating both the general public and policy makers about the level to which the enemy has actively engaged in Information Warfare. Some of the messages, such as this one, contain graphic content. We at ThreatsWatch post these videos as evidence of the brutal nature of the enemy we face and the clear intent they have to kill those not aligned with them. Making the public aware of the nature of the enemy - as well as the often forgotten virtues of our own nation - is one of the primary missions of ThreatsWatch and the Center for Threat Awareness.

By Nick Grace at 12:43 AM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

As-Sahab, al-Qaeda’s central media wing, released its 88th video this year and the fourth installment of “American Holocaust/Hell for the Americans in the Land of Khorasan (Islamic Emirate)” Wednesday, November 21, on the main al-Qaeda message forums. The video, which is billed as “Ambushing a Convoy of Crusaders near Kandahar,” lasts a total of 10 minutes and 21 seconds and features an interview with a Taliban commander in Pashtu, footage of tactical operations and the burial of dead mujahideen in Afghanistan.

It was posted in 3 video formats and 4 different file sizes and seeded across a total of 308 free file transfer sites on November 20, including uploaded.to, load.to, cocoshare.cc, depositfiles.com, filefactory.com, sendspace.com, megaupload.com, uploadpalace.com and archive.org.

Following standard operational security, the files are zipped in the RAR format and protected with the randomly-generated password “Rm*B3m4^nbIdtgVyh!#5Zgtfd#nc,m)fR.”

By Nick Grace at 11:06 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

On November 20, I participated in a Department of Defense Blogger’s Roundtable with Vice Admiral Robert Moeller, Deputy to the Commander for Military Operations, US Africa Command. A transcript of the question and answer session is available here as well as audio here.

Concentrating on the formation of AFRICOM and its mission, Vice Admiral Moeller answered questions on topics regarding maritime security, counterterrorism, and inter-agency relations among others. The most notable aspect of Vice Admiral Moeller’s remarks was his heavy use of the phrase “our African partners.”

Clearly, you know, working with our African partners — I mean, the challenge — and we will look to support, again, where it makes sense to do so and the best of our ability some of the issues with regard to the many medical challenges that confront many of our African partners in terms of HIV/AIDS, the challenges of malaria and those kinds of things; because clearly to be able to develop capacity in the forces of our African partners requires a force that is physically capable of, you know, our being able to work with and support them, to have the capacity to do the kinds of things that we want to do with them and we believe that they would want to do — but that requires a relatively healthy armed force to be able to do those kinds of things.

By Clay Varney at 11:25 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The battle lines are drawn and the clock ticks in the crisis in Lebanon, where a bitterly and evenly split parliament cannot agree on a compromise president.

The impasse has created a tense standoff between the US-supported March 14 block, which forms the backbone of the Government, and the pro-Syrian opposition, each waiting for the other to make the first move.

The March 14 block, which holds a wafer-thin majority in parliament, has threatened to elect a president drawn from its own ranks if no consensus candidate was found. The move could spur the Opposition to form a rival government and take public action such as seizing government buildings.

Wiam Wahhab, a senior member of the Opposition, told The Times that the election of a March 14 president would be “answered on the ground”.

“Which ever side is the strongest will win,” he said.

The “Opposition” is, of course, Hizballah, backed monetarily and militarily by Iran and Syria. The March 14 Cedar Revolution has no such military backers in any tangible sense.

And as the clock ticks toward midnight, tension is high.

With Hizballah and their Syrian and Iranian life lines anxious to decide things according to their strength (armed conflict in the streets), the situation could be grim in relatively short order.

The next 48 hours will be crucial.

Also see from the Washington Post: From Hopeful To Helpless At a Protest In Lebanon.

By Steve Schippert at 4:00 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Nur Hassan Hussein has been appointed as Somalia’s new Prime Minister.

The VOA report reflects optimism from some inside Somalia regarding his ability to function as a leader.

A senior advisor to President Yusuf, Abdirizak Adam Hassan, tells VOA he is optimistic about the choice of Nur Adde.

“I think he is going to be a good manager,” Hassan said. “He is going to be a man of accountability, transparency, and overall good governance.”

Western diplomats have expressed hope that with his humanitarian background Nur Adde will be effective in his new role.

Hassan says he believes the main tasks for Nur Adde will be restoring security and building up Somalia’s government institutions.

“The major assignment of this prime minister is going to be in my view security,” he said. “He has to pacify the country, he has to work towards the stabilization of Somalia. The second priority is going to be executing the mandate of the government - drafting the constitution of the country, the census-taking, the referendum, the restructure of Somalia into federal Somalia, the multi-party system, making free and fair elections at the end of the mandate of the government.”

By Steve Schippert at 1:42 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

The Global Islamic Media Front (GIMF), a well-known Jihadist media collective based in Austria, posted a 4-minute video on the Internet Tuesday demanding that German and Austrian troops withdraw from Afghanistan and also calls for the release of two GIMF suspects arrested in Vienna earlier this year.

The video, “A Call to the German and Austrian Governments,” features stock news photos and terrorism-related video clips on top of moving background textures and special effects produced with Adobe After Effects. The logo of the “Caliphate Voice Channel,” GIMF’s network of multimedia Web sites, appears in the top right corner.

A male voice, digitally altered to disguise his identity, reads the communique in accented German. He begins by stating that the “hundreds of billions of dollars and Euros, which the crusaders and enemies of Islam in America, Europe and especially Germany have invested” in the fight against al-Qaeda have only hardened GIMF’s resolve, and proceeds to moderate Islamic groups and organizations that “poison ones mind and destroy Islam from within so that the crusaders won’t even have to pull arms.”

He then calls for Germany and Austria to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and warns of an upcoming Taliban Winter offensive. “The mujahadeen has spared you up until now,” he warns the Austrian government. “(T)hat’s why your number of dead soldiers is not very high but this will change soon.” He then concludes with a warning that if the “brothers and sisters who were arrested in Vienna” are not released that the Austrians will regret ever having Muslims in their prisons.

Both German and Austrian authorities, according to wire reports, are aware of the video and the Austrian interior ministry has called it “an abstract threat.” Nevertheless, authorities are taking the threats seriously.

GIMF is widely considered to be the media arm of al-Qaeda’s European network and, based on its frequent outreach to the German and Austrian media, is suspected to be centered currently in Austria. It appeared on the Internet in 2002 and was one of the major early distributors for al-Qaeda messaging products. It expanded into English-language content between 2003 and 2004, and then expanded heavily into the French and German languages in 2006.

Long known for its bravado, the group has often posted recruitment advertisements on well-known Jihadi message boards for volunteers. The GIMF has even described its mission as the “Al-Qaeda University of Jihad Studies.” Indeed, according to a senior U.S. intelligence official, GIMF served as recruitment and training ground for al-Qaeda’s corps of media specialists. With the right skills, proven loyalty and operational security, GIMF experience could open doors to paid frontline assignments in Iraq with al-Furqan Media and in Afghanistan and Pakistan with as-Sahab Media. GIMF video products, including this latest release, however, are typically of poorer quality than videos produced by al-Furqan and as-Sahab.

The group has posted a wide variety of materials, including videos for al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, a Flash-based combat video game called “The Night of Bush Capturing,” e-Books and mujahideen magazines, hacking and encryption software, and a long commentary about a fictitious American al-Qaeda operative named “Rakan Ben Williams.” It produced a weekly news vodcast called “Voice of the Caliphate” that ultimately morphed into a redundant network of Jihadist video archive sites called the “Caliphate Voice Channel.” In August 2006, the group also posted the hostage videos of Fox News journalists Steve Centanni and Olaf Wiig, who were captured in Gaza, raising fears of al-Qaeda involvement in the kidnapping.

In September, two suspected members of GIMF were arrested in Austria during investigations of a March 2007 GIMF video that threatened the government of Germany and Austria. The release of these two individuals is one of the group’s demands in this latest video.

Video and transcripts in German and English follow.

[ThreatsWatch thanks Bruce Kesler of the Democracy Project and Jon Ham of the John Locke Foundation for translation assistance.]

By Nick Grace and Steve Schippert at 2:12 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)