Threat Perception and Risk Inversion
An analysis written by ThreatsWatch's Steve Schippert on the nuclear threat posed by Pakistan has been published by The Weekly Standard on their website. In Threat Perception and Risk Inversion, it is reasoned that the most pressing terrorist threat still emanates from Iran, as it always has been over the past 28 years. Likewise, with Musharraf's stability within Pakistan increasingly precarious, the risk of the established Pakistani nuclear arsenal falling into the hands of a murky cabal of Islamist terrorists must be considered the gravest nuclear threat before us today.
"In a conversation with this reporter in October 2001, Gen. Gul forecast a future [Pakistani] Islamist nuclear power that would form a greater Islamic state with a fundamentalist Saudi Arabia after the monarchy falls." --Arnaud de Borchgrave, August 2004THERE REMAINS an inversion of public discourse and policy direction with regard to two of the most significant threats we face. In particular, the most pressing nuclear threat is widely perceived to be from Iran while the more imminent terrorist threat is believed to be found in Pakistan. While both threats remain very real, few seem to understand that the most imminent nuclear threat is posed by Pakistan--the only current nuclear power considerably within reach of becoming an Islamist-run state aligned with al Qaeda, the Taliban, or other Islamists. Conversely, Iran's still-developing nuclear weapons program deceptively overshadows the significant state-sponsored international terrorism emanating from Tehran. This, while Pakistan's increasingly embattled--and internally challenged--President Pervez Musharraf stands as the primary buffer between Islamist forces of the ISI, the Taliban, and al Qaeda taking ownership of Pakistan's significant nuclear arsenal of 30 to 50 warheads.
We extend our gratitude to the people of The Weekly Standard, particularly Online Editor Jonathan Last and Senior Writer Stephen F. Hayes, for believing that the subject matter and our writing was worthy of their space.
You can read the rest of Threat Perception and Risk Inversion here.