At OPFOR, John Noonan makes some good observations about why Israel decided to give a 48-hour reprieve from all-out aerial attacks on Hizballah targets.

Not that Hizballah (et al) need concern themselves with the Geneva Convention, but John’s observation in regards to how the 48-window relates to Qana likely hits the nail squarely on the head.

Critical that the incident in Qana appear isolated and accidental, despite the fact that the Law of Armed Conflict and Geneva Convention place blame for the incident squarely on Hezbollah’s shoulders. This move on Israel’s part is as much of a language as it is a strategy, and the message to the Lebanese people is: “if you see Hezbollah fighters in your backyard, get out of Dodge. You’ve got two days.”

…preferably to the north, for whatever that’s worth.

By Steve Schippert at 10:17 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Virtue or fault, I watch very little broadcast/cable news. However, about three days per week, 4 minutes or so will be watched in the early morning while inhaling some semblance of a breakfast before work. This morning was an on the ground report from Bint Jbail, most likely from Fox News, noting the absolute decimation of the village.

First to mind was a recollection of Israeli pamphlets dropped incessantly warning residents all over south Lebanon to head north of the Litani River.

What the scene showed was astonishing to these eyes. After the leaflets, after Qana, and hours after the IDF pulled back to their side of the border and left the rubble behind, mothers were walking up the streets and back into town - with their children in tow.

Women bringing their children back to Bint Jbail. Again, one day after Qana. Hours removed from fighting in the same town.

Maybe it’s just me, but that stopped me in my tracks thinking what I would be doing with my own children…and watching other parents bringing theirs back.

Speaking of Qana, there appear to be at least some inconsistencies regarding the Qana site recovery, most compelling being the apparent unnatural rapid onset of rigor mortis.

By Steve Schippert at 10:09 PM | Permalink | Feedback (3) | Referenced By (0)

Radio Free Europe reports that Iranian volunteers have left for Hizballah assistance in Lebanon.

Groups of Iranian volunteers left Tehran for Lebanon recently, despite government discouragement and denials of responsibility. The country’s top clerics, meanwhile, have been unanimous in their support for Hizballah and in encouraging financial contributions and other forms of support for the organization.

It should be noted that no one leaves Iran under media spotlight without the mullahcracy’s consent.

The Iranian government discourages their jihad like NAMBLA discourages degenerate behavior.

By Steve Schippert at 1:03 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

From CNN comes word that the Lebanese government, weak as it is, and Hizballah, clearly battered as it is, have agreed to a cease fire plan.

The Lebanese cease-fire plan, reached at a meeting on Friday night, calls for an immediate cease-fire, the release of Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails and the return of two Israeli soldiers held by Hezbollah.

[Commentary: No cease fire plan should include a prisoner swap that ammounts to rewarding terrorism, regardless of the toll exacted by Israeli strikes on Hizballah.]

The plan also calls for the return of displaced Lebanese to their homes, negotiations between Israel and Lebanon concerning the disputed Shebaa farms now under Israeli control, the disclosure of maps showing Israeli minefields near the Lebanese border, the deployment and strengthening of the Lebanese army and the expansion of the U.N. force in the south.

While Hezbollah agreed to a cease-fire with Israel and an increased international presence in southern Lebanon, the group objected to “a robust force” of international peacekeepers in the region, the sources said.

Perhaps a map of Hizballah minefields would be in order as well?

While Condoleezza Rice said that there needs to be ‘some give and take’ on this agreement, the one piece of the puzzle missing from this plan is Israel. Expect Israel to possibly put a nice public face on it but reject it out of hand.

Consider the points:

• No disarming of Hizballah.
• A weak and deeply segregated Lebanese army in the south w/o NATO force behind it.
• Hapless UN forces remain with a paper mission w/o tangible desire.
• Prisoner swap reward for terrorism.
• Land Reward - Shebaa Farms, regardless of whether Israel really wants it or not.

It appears that what Israel gets in return are their two soldiers (not unimportant by any means) and a healing period for Hizballah similar to that employed by Hamas during the unofficial ceasefire that was in place for just over one year.

It will take more than ‘give and take’ to make this plan a lasting solution. Otherwise, the fight is merely put off for another day.

When an attacked terrorist group wants a cease fire, press forward with determination.

For what it’s worth, it should be noted that Israel has chosen to maintain the tougher fight thus far, that being against Hizballah. Removing Syria from the equation militarily is far easier to achieve than taking on Hizballah. Cutting off the oxygen line from neighboring Assad would cripple Hizballah in short order, making their defeat far easier than without doing so.

Hizballah’s Nasrallah said that he wanted a war of attrition. He should be given his desires.

The above, of course, assumes that the true goal is to defeat Hizballah and reduce them to a non-threat in Lebanon. So long as Syria remains a Hizballah life-line of military and logistical support - ensuring Iran’s flow of treasure and weaponry - Hizballah will continue to breathe and fight on.

To truly defeat Hizballah, Israel needs to ‘give’ it the language it understands in the form of an iron fist and ‘take’ away its oxygen supply to the east.

That’s just the way it is. Otherwise, the terrorists are being managed, not defeated.

And therein lay the choice.

By Steve Schippert at 12:05 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

To begin to understand Lebanon is to begin to appreciate the latest from Michael Totten, the consummate inside outsider.

If one is not inclined to read Lebanon’s Premature Liberalism in its entirety, the last paragraph excerpted here is key (preceding four for at least minimal context).

Another Lebanese blogger quotes a radical Christian war criminal from the bad old days who says the civil war will resume a month after Israel cools its guns: “Christians, Sunnis and Druze will fight the ‘****er Shia’, with arms from the US and France.”

Israeli partisans may think this is terrific. The Lebanese may take care of Hezbollah at last! But democratic Lebanon cannot win a war against Hezbollah, not even after Hezbollah is weakened by IAF raids. Hezbollah is the most effective Arab fighting force in the world, and the Lebanese army is the weakest and most divided. The Israelis beat three Arab armies in six days in 1967, but a decade was not enough for the IDF to take down Hezbollah.

The majority of Lebanon’s people were wise and civilized enough to take the gun out of politics after the fifteen year war. Lebanon was the only Arab country to do this, the only Arab country that preferred dialogue, elections, compromise, and debate to the rule of the boot and the rifle. But Hezbollah remained outside that mainstream consensus and did everything it could, with backing from the Syrian Baath and the Iranian Jihad, to strangle Lebanon’s democracy in its cradle.

Disarming Hezbollah through persuasion and consensus was not possible in the first year of Lebanon’s independence. Disarming Hezbollah by force wasn’t possible either. The Lebanese people have been called irresponsible and cowardly by some of their friends in America for refusing to resume the civil war. Unlike Hezbollah, though, most Lebanese know better than to start unwinnable wars. This is wisdom, not cowardice, and it’s sadly rare in the Arab world now. They are being punished entirely too much for what they have done and for what they can’t do.

Israel and Lebanon (especially Lebanon) will continue to burn as long as Hezbollah exists as a terror miltia freed from the leash of the state. The punishment for taking on Hezbollah is war. The punishment for not taking on Hezbollah is war. Lebanese were doomed to suffer war no matter what. Their liberal democratic project could not withstand the threat from within and the assaults from the east, and it could not stave off another assault from the south. War, as it turned out, was inevitable even if the actual shape of it wasn’t. Peace was not in the cards for Lebanon. Its democracy turned out to be neither a strength nor a weakness. It was irrelevant.

For those who continue to deride Lebanon, pause once more to consider that “Hizballah is the most effective Arab fighting force in the world, and the Lebanese army is the weakest and most divided.”

Divided is key, thanks to the religious segregation at the scheming hand of occupying Syria. Consider this important fact when reading news of the IAF bombing the “Lebanese Army.” The Shia units of the Lebanese army are rife with Hizballah collaborators and surely host to more than a few full fledged members.

The IDF/IAF are almost certainly following a trail of crumbs from the battlefield…a trail that democratic Lebanon beyond Hizballistan has been left largely incapable of dealing with.

War, to be sure, was inevitable inside Lebanon’s borders, though the Cedar Revolution gave a comforting verneer of hope.

The exit of Hizballah’s power will be the real entrance of hope. Ya Libnan.

By Steve Schippert at 10:37 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The al-Jazeera clip of al-Zawahiri’s statement has been archived and made available for download by Laura Mansfield today. Her analysis is ongoing (check for updates) and she summarizes:

In the message, Al Qaeda second-in-command Ayman al Zawahiri threatens the Israelis and the west in retaliation for the war in Lebanon.

Zawahiri’s key points are:

* The world is a battle field open in front of us.

* This war with Israel cannot be ended by ceasefires or treaties.

* This is a jihad and will continue until the religion of Allah rules the world.

* Everyone taking part in these attacks will pay the price.

Lest we forget who our enemies are, the al-Qaeda / al-Zawahiri message should restore any clarity lost.

It should also be noted that Zawahiri condemned Arab regimes who criticized Hizballah, effectively renewing calls for grassroots jihad against them as well.

With calls for jihad against Israel, the United States, Arab regimes, and the whole of the West, the hatred for the ‘apostate’ Shi’ites is seemingly shelved for the moment. But it cannot last forever. The Salafist al-Qaeda is truly in a war against the world.

By Steve Schippert at 12:13 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

While speculation on the whereabouts of Hizballah political leader Hassan Nasrallah continues, news of the whereabouts of its elusive operational leader, Imad Mugniyeh, would surely be of infinitely more value. That said, according to a Kuwaiti newspaper “known for its opposition to the Syrian regime,” Nasrallah is in Damascus.

A top Iranian envoy was in Syria on Thursday for talks on the Israeli-Hizballah conflict in a meeting that brought together the guerrilla organization’s two key sponsors, according to Iranian news reports. A Kuwaiti newspaper reported that Hizballah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah was taking part in the session.

…Kuwait’s Al-Siyassah newspaper said it learned of the meeting from “well-informed Syrian sources” it did not identify. According to the newspaper, Nasrallah was moving through Damascus with Syrian guards in an intelligence agency car. He was dressed in civilian clothes, not his normal clerical garb.

While unconfirmed and no less (or more) speculative than earlier reports that he had been holed up at the Iranian embassy in Beirut, it is worth noting that both reports could be true. Or not. Both are plausible.

Nasrallah’s voice is easily replaceable. Mugniyeh’s mind, on the other hand, is not.

By Steve Schippert at 11:21 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

In a Multi-National Force - Iraq report, General John Abizaid makes a very apt comparison between the militia situation in Iraq and Lebanon (more precisely between al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army and Hizballah) that is worth noting.

“The sectarian violence that’s taking place in the Baghdad area and up north towards Diyala province is probably the gravest threat to stability that there is in the country right now,” Abizaid said.

Officials in Baghdad said there is a tit-for-tat response going on in Baghdad and its environs now, with several revenge killings taking place each day.

Abizaid said the government must demobilize militias.

“If you don’t do this, you end up with a situation like you have in Lebanon, where the militia becomes a state within a state,” Abizaid said. “It makes the state impotent to be able to deal with security challenges.”

By Steve Schippert at 10:16 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

At Family Security Matters, Dr. J. Peter Pham reminds us that, while current attention spans are dominated by conflict in the Levant between Israel and Hizballah, al-Qaeda is making significant efforts (with some clear success) on the continent of Africa. As he clearly points out, these efforts extend well beyond Somalia.

For the purposes of brevity, consider his conclusion:

In short, even if some analysts inside the Beltway cannot or will not see it, our jihadi foes are already setting their sights on Africa as the venue of choice for future operational bases, especially as they continue to be rooted out of Afghanistan, Iraq, the Arabian peninsula, and now, Gaza and Lebanon.

Over the long term, a terrorist foothold in Africa—whether among the Islamists in the Horn of Africa or in West Africa or both—may well prove to be an even greater threat to the interests of the United States and its allies than those in the current arenas of conflict.

We have been warned: al-Qaeda itself has served us notice.

No longer than many newspaper articles, Dr. Pham’s writing should be read in full. That al-Qaeda is taking a page from Wee Willie Keeler to “hit ‘em where they ain’t” should not come as a surprise…nor go unnoticed.

By Steve Schippert at 9:32 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

In The Age’s recent column Neighbourhood bombing ‘against humanitarian law’, the UN’s Jan Egeland seems to have dismissed his earlier principle when he said of Hizballah’s deep embedding among civilians, “Consistently, from the Hizballah heartland, my message was that Hizballah must stop this cowardly blending … among women and children. I heard they were proud because they lost very few fighters and that it was the civilians bearing the brunt of this. I don’t think anyone should be proud of having many more women and children dead than armed men.”

Now, however, after seeing the destruction Hizballah has truly wrought upon its own civilians, he appears to have changed course. From The Age:

Israel’s bombing of a crowded Beirut neighbourhood where Hezbollah had its headquarters has breached humanitarian law, a senior UN official has said, as reports emerged of heavy fighting on Lebanon’s southern border.

“It is horrific. I did not know it was block after block of houses,” Jan Egeland, the UN emergency relief co-ordinator, told reporters as he toured the shattered Haret Hreik district. “It makes it a violation of humanitarian law.”

Mr Egeland was visibly shocked by the devastation in the Shiite Muslim quarter where air raids have flattened a Hezbollah compound. He said it was hard to distinguish between military and civilian targets. [Emphasis added]

One wonders if it crosses Mr. Egeland’s mind how the Israelis might feel observing precisely the same frustrating circumstance. It appears Mr. Egeland’s view – as well as others’ view – that it is the Israelis who are responsible. This view irresponsibly dismisses the fact that this reaction is the precise reason that Hizballah has embedded itself among its own civilians, sacrificing them knowingly and readily.

Tyre neighborhoods, for instance, are where many of the missiles striking Haifa daily are launched. From among its own civilians and intentionally targeting Israeli civilians with bearing-laden warheads. Is this not ‘against humanitarian law’?

Is Israel to cede Hizballah a Tyre (or Beirut) free-to-fire zone from which to rain unguided missiles purposely down upon Israeli cities and civilians?

Who is going to stop the launches within these civilian neighborhoods, UNIFIL? How does one propose any potential ‘international peacekeeping force’ effectively put an end to these apparent untouchable launch districts?

According to the rationale put forth, fighting them is clearly not possible in their perfect ‘humanitarian’ defensive firing positions. What is the UN going to do, impose sanctions on Hizballah?

Yet one more time, please consider:

The IDF is not in force in Haifa. The aim is clear: Kill Israeli civilians.

This intent is what separates the Israelis (and the West) from the terrorist enemy. Civilian casualties from Israeli attacks are because the enemy embeds himself among them.

To not engage him, even with as much precision as possible, is to cede him victory and condemn one’s own civilians to undefended slaughter.

This is unacceptable.

As the rockets rain on the general population of Israel, there is no free ‘Home Base’ safety zone for Hizballah to hide them in. The Israeli Defense Force is not playing tag.

By Steve Schippert at 2:15 AM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

The use of biometrics is rapidly taking on an increasingly important role in national and international security. In an article published in the Asia Times, Fred Stakelbeck takes a look at the technology and at how Asia is actually leading the way in its development and implementation.

Looking ahead, the main driver for the adoption of biometric solutions in Asia will continue to be the government sector, specifically in the areas of immigration and security.

“Now that the concept has been proven in the public context, this will pave the way for the adoption of biometrics,” noted Terry Hartmann, director of secure identification and biometrics at Unisys Corporation. “Government departments that need to verify identify will consider the technology initially, after which the private sector will be prompted to investigate how it can solve existing problems, such as building access control.”

Starting next month, all passport holders in Singapore will be able to apply for new travel documents with additional security features designed in accordance with international standards. BioPass is a tamper-resistant biometric passport with an embedded Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) chip, carrying the passport holder’s facial and fingerprint biometric identifiers.

By Steve Schippert at 4:57 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

The recent coordinated train bombings in India have put the al-Qaeda-linked terror group Lashkar-e-Tayyiba in the spotlight. Mark Eichenlaub has written an article published by The Washington Times’ Insight Magazine that serves as a good introduction for the average American who may not be familiar with the LeT. Following his owm personal focus, mark details the links between the LeT and the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq.

Why should the average American even care about a terrorist group operating primarily in Kashmir and India?

In fact, LET agents have been captured in the United States. In 2003, operatives were arrested in Maryland, Virginia and Pennsylvania for conspiring to “[P]repare for and engage in violent jihad on behalf of Muslims in Kashmir, Chechnya, the Philippines and other countries.”

The terror web is tangled and complex until reduced to a common denominator: Hatred for America< Israel, Jews and the West in general.

In that simple context, there are no groups Americans should be unconcerned about. They’re quite concerned about us.

By Steve Schippert at 2:19 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

From CENTCOM:

BALAD – Iraqi Army forces conducted a pre-dawn raid in Baghdad on July 25, capturing six targeted insurgents, all of whom are believed to be involved in ‘death squad’ activities.

As coalition force advisers looked on, Iraqi forces raided an objective in southwest Baghdad consisting of four separate buildings and captured the cell leader and five other key members of an insurgent ‘punishment committee.’

Iraqi forces also seized two AK-47 assault rifles, one pistol, and one set of body armor.

The operation occurred without incident; there were no Iraqi or coalition force casualties.

An AP report in today’s Chicago Tribune notes an important unknown, reporting “The six death squad suspects, including a cell leader, were detained during a predawn raid on four buildings in Baghdad, a U.S. military statement said. It was not clear whether those detained Tuesday were Sunnis or Shiites.”

By Steve Schippert at 11:39 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

In A Knife-Thrower at the Carnival, a closer look at events that led up to the UNIFIL post being struck in southern Lebanon puts the incident in proper perspective. Wretchard details other incidents since open hostilities began in an excellent day-by-day chart. His commentary is spot on in conclusion.

To recapitulate, the UNIFIL is running a kind of ambulance service on the Lebanese side of the border. That is not its official mission; it has failed in its official mission but its men are obviously performing with considerable perseverance and bravery. UNIFIL are able to run convoys in an area where the Hezbollah are shifting squads around while the IDF doing its best to kill the Hezbollah. Yet until July 26 the UNIFIL had not suffered any fatalities from IDF fire. Their sole serious injury to that date had actually been caused by the Hezbollah, and the injured UN trooper was evacuated by the IDF to an Israeli hospital.

The IDF has for its part avoided hitting UNIFIL or their civilian convoys despite its widely publicized use of artillery and air. Far from being random, the IDF is apparently able to create safe corridors in active battle zones through which UNIFIL can pass until the recent incident in Kiyam. There are probably very few military organizations in the world which can accomplish this. Nevertheless, the danger of friendly fire naturally remains.

The following sentence asks the proper question:

Considering the fact that UNIFIL peacekeeping mission was a dead-letter it should naturally be asked why Kofi Annan, as their ultimate commander, has seen fit to keep them in a position of danger where their only chance of safety actually depends on accurate targeting by the IDF.

By Steve Schippert at 10:21 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

In Tuesday’s Chicago Tribune, Alan Dershowitz takes aim at the harm done by the display of moral equivalence on the part of Kofi Annan in his commentary How the UN legitimizes terrorists. It should be considered required reading.

If anyone wonders why the UN has rendered itself worse than irrelevant in the Arab-Israeli conflict, all he or she need do is read UN Secretary General Kofi Annan’s July 20 statement. Annan goes to great pains to suggest equal fault and moral equivalence between the rockets of Hezbollah and Hamas that specifically target innocent civilians and the self-defense efforts by Israel, which tries desperately, though not always successfully, to avoid causing civilian casualties. In his statement, Annan never condemns, or even mentions, terrorism, which is a root cause and precipitator of the conflict.

Even Annan was forced to acknowledge that “Hezbollah’s provocative attack on July 12 was the trigger of this particular crisis”; that Hezbollah is “deliberate[ly] targeting … Israeli population centers with hundreds of indiscriminate weapons”; and that Israel has the “right to defend itself under Article 51 of the UN charter.” But he doesn’t stop there. He goes out of his way to insist on equating Hezbollah’s terrorists with Israeli military response, which he labels “disproportionate” and “collective punishment.” He condemns both Hezbollah and Israel. He also criticizes Israel for its efforts at preventing Qassam rocket attacks against its civilian populations, noting that the Hamas rockets have produced no “casualties in the past month.” (This, of course, is not for lack of trying.) He ignores Hamas’ long history of terrorism against innocent civilians.

The key phrase is “This, of course, is not for lack of trying.”

The difference between the two sides is intent and target selection. Their rockets and suicide bombers seek out civilians - the former by the cities, the latter by the busloads.

We ask yet one more time:

What if Hizballah or Hamas had Merkavas?

By Steve Schippert at 10:05 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The word out of Baghdad is that Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army appears ready to join fight, recruiting and training Iraqi men to fight alongside Hizballah in southern Lebanon.

“We are choosing the men right now,” said Abu Mujtaba, who works in the loosely organized following of radical Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. “We are preparing the right men for the job.”

Mr. Mujtaba, who was interviewed in Baghdad, said some of the men have had special training but did not specify what kind.

Sheik al-Sadr’s black-clad armed militia numbers in the thousands, operates throughout central and southern Iraq and is thought to be responsible for numerous killings of Sunnis.

But it appears that it is not only the Iranian-backed Shi’ite radical al-Sadr that is rushing to help fight Israel. His own Sunni competition in Iraq appears loathe to be outdone in that arena.

A rival Sunni cleric, Abdul Rahman al-Duleimi, said he knew about the militia’s recruiting effort and that he had appealed to his own followers to fight Israel.

“We know that the Mahdi militia is on this issue since the Lebanon-Israeli crisis started,” said Sheik al-Duleimi, whose house in Baghdad contains a large portrait of former ruler Saddam Hussein. The cleric is not related to Adnan al-Dulaimi, also a Sunni cleric and leader of a major faction in parliament.

A sign that the war is already widening beyond Israel, Hizballah, Iran and Syria, the hatred of Israel runs deep and wide.

By Steve Schippert at 5:30 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

At first glance it appeared - in a manner - confirming the report that Hizballah sleeper cells have been activated around the world when a Hizballah leader at a conference in Tehran said bluntly that Hizballah will leave ‘no place’ safe for Israelis, in or out of Israel.

But upon closer inspection (and without more context from him) it appears that Hossein Safiadeen is referring to Israel proper.

“We are going to make Israel not safe for Israelis. There will be no place they are safe,” Hossein Safiadeen told a conference that included the Tehran-based representative of the Palestinian group Hamas and the ambassadors from Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian Authority.

“You will see a new Middle East in the way of Hezbollah and Islam, not in the way of Rice and Israel,” Safiadeen said.

Hizballah is not likely to infiltrate Israel with any regular success for bombing missions. Based upon such an assumption, the success of such a vision would either entail even longer-range weapons and/or the direct cooperation of terrorists firing from both Gaza and the West Bank.

The intent is to once and for all rid Israel of Jews.

“We will expand attacks,” he said. “The people who came to Israel, (they) moved there to live, not to die. If we continue to attack, they will leave.”

Echoing Ahmadinejad’s threats in recent days, where he said that Israel had “reached its finishing line,” Safiadeen added that “This war will be remembered as the beginning of the end for Israel.”

Is there possibly any question about Iranian direction of Hizballah, including the attack that sparked the current hot conflict?

By Steve Schippert at 3:54 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

About that impending message from bin Laden, Andy Cochran says ‘not so fast’. He notes Evan Kohlmann’s experienced view on the word of a new message at the Counterterrorism Blog:

However, there has been no confirmation of an upcoming message from as-Sahab itself, and Evan Kohlmann warns, “The indicators that would suggest a new Bin Laden audio is coming out are more or less flat. There was one random message on the Internet posted by one random person, that’s it. At least in my book, that’s what you call an interesting but unsubstantiated rumor.”

So perhaps the world’s people can resume their normal daily lives again.

Andy also notes this possible significance of the Saudi Wahhabi cleric’s fatwa against Shi’ite Hizballah. We noted at the time:

al-Qaeda has trained many men in Hizballah’s Bekaa Valley. Perhaps Sheik Abdullah bin Jabreen did not consult fellow Saudi Wahhabi, Osama bin Laden.

If word of a bin Laden message on Lebanon, Hizballah & Israel proves false, then perhaps he did consult our al-Qaeda friend.

By Steve Schippert at 11:25 AM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

Continuing his unending Maritime Security vigilance, EagleSpeak has another roundup of security events and concerns, including piracy in the Indian Ocean and ‘fishermen’ with a submarine full of cocaine. If it happens on the seas (or even the rivers of Romania), Eagle1 is on it.

By Steve Schippert at 10:41 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Iran’s former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani praised Hizballah for the “great job” they are doing lobbing their anti-personnel projectile laden Iranian-made rockets and missiles into Israeli cities. Quotes abound from Mr. Rafsanjani in the Khaleej Times, but none more eye-catching than the following condemnation of Israel’s counter-attack on Hizballah:

“Destroying a country is not proportionate to capturing two hostages.”

Interesting sound bite coming from a government that prefers to see Israel “wiped off the map.” What might be proportionate to wiping Israel off the map, one wonders?

Come now, Mr. President. You can’t have it both ways.

By Steve Schippert at 1:38 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

In today’s InBrief, Ground Push Imminent as Hizballah Rockets Fly, we noted Hizballah’s system of tunnels and use of villages as guerrilla defenses. As well, DNA cites Jane’s Defense Weekly’s article noting that Hizballah is using Viet Cong-style defenses, including tunnels and trenches near the Israeli border. From it, consider this quote from an ‘unnamed senior [Israeli] defence source’:

“We should consider that what we are facing in Lebanon is not a militia but rather a special forces brigade of the Iranian Army. They are extremely well trained and equipped and charged with high motivation to continue fighting.”

And that they are indeed.

By Steve Schippert at 4:22 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

Word has it that another message from Osama bin Laden is coming soon, this time addressing the fighting in Lebanon in what surely will be an attempt to rally followers to take arms against Israel along with threats once more to the US and the West. From ABC News’ The Blotter:

In his message, bin Laden will reportedly address events in Gaza and Lebanon. This message has been expected and is consistent with new efforts in 2006 by al Qaeda’s senior leadership to be responsive in their messages to current developments.

By Steve Schippert at 2:34 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Appearing on al-Jazeera, Nasrallah finally confirmed that he has survived the Israeli airstrike that saw 23 tons of ordnance dropped on what IDF intelligence believed was a Hizballah command bunker.

Nasrallah said, “I can confirm without exaggerating or using psychological warfare, that we have not been harmed.” The IDF believed that much of Hizballah leadership was in the bunker at the time.

Nasrallah continued, “Hizballah has so far stood fast, absorbed the strike and has retaken the initiative and made the surprises that it had promised, and there are more surprises.”

One thing that has been surprising thus far is the apparent silence of Hizballah’s shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. The Bekaa Valley has been called by some the most heavily defended air corridor on the planet, with the mountainsides teeming with shoulder-fires SAMs.

Perhaps one of Nasrallah’s surprises is the repositioning of those assets and their introduction in waves to the battlefield.

With that in mind, there is word now that an Israeli helicopter has gone down with the crew of two dead and no word yet on the cause.

By Steve Schippert at 5:35 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

This PowerPoint slide show hosted by our friends at Vital Perspective gives a very revealing look at the nature of Hizballah’s missile attacks on Haifa, as the warheads are packed with ball bearings and other anti-personnel projectiles. The IDF is not in force in Haifa. The aim is clear: Kill Israeli civilians.

This intent is what separates the Israelis (and the West) from the terrorist enemy. Civilian casualties from Israeli attacks are because the enemy embeds himself among them.

To not engage him, even with as much precision as possible, is to cede him victory and condemn one’s own civilians to undefended slaughter.

This is unacceptable.

This recognition is also why so many of us have so little patience with the many screaming for cease-fire due to civilian losses. While we are branded warmongers and callous, the enemy relishes in his neighbor’s home, launching rockets from another’s backyard.

If the equipment and weapons available were to magically switch sides, finding the Israelis with AK’s and Katyushas and the Hizballah with Merkava tanks, F-16’s and 2000lb bombs, can there be any doubt - any - that hundreds of thousands of Israeli civilians would be eclipsed, buried beneath the rubble that once was Haifa, Tel Aviv and Ashkelon?

Hold that image and take a closer look at Beirut today after over a week of fighting. Check that civilian number once more while at it.

This is certainly not to dismiss the losses as inconsequential. But consider the nature of civilian embedding Hizballah practices and a week of attacks from the Middle East’s most fearsome military power. How is it not more?

Answer: Hizballah targets civilians while the IDF goes to great lengths to avoid them without ceding victory to a murderous enemy who employs his own as human shields.

Civilians are defended by Israel, while Hizballah and their Iranian masters employ their usefulness as both targets and shields.

Remember…If Hizballah had Merkavas and F-16’s…

By Steve Schippert at 4:28 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

Unfortunately, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hizbullah, seems to have survied the airstrike yesterday evening of a Hizbullah bunker. Watching Al-Jazeera just now, they showed a video clipping of an interview with Nasrallah and a live discussion with the journalist who conducted the interview. As usual, I cut in about in the middle of the show, so I didn’t get the full context, but it certainly appeared that this interview was after yesterday’s strike. The journalist was wearing the same shirt in the live interview as the video, suggesting that there wasn’t too much time between them. I note that the Jerusalem Post has just now posted an article with a photo from the same video but limited information. Al-Jazeera’s website does not as of right now have anything on this in either the Arabic or English version.

We will update as more information is available, but it looks like Nasrallah is alive.

By Kirk H. Sowell at 4:22 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Vital Perspective has an extensive entry covering Kofi Annan’s designs for a cease-fire in southern Lebanon. Said Annan, “Israel’s disproportionate use of force and collective punishment of the Lebanese people must stop.” It is at least arguable that Hizballah itself is responsible for any “collective punishment,” launching missiles from Christian, Druze and Sunni neighborhoods in an attempt to draw Israeli fire on them which, in turn, lends propaganda value to support claims like those of Annan.

Points from Annan’s plan:

1. The captured Israeli soldiers must be transferred to the legitimate Lebanese authorities under the auspices of the ICRC with a view to their repatriation to Israel and a cease-fire.

2. On the Lebanese side of the Blue Line, an expanded peacekeeping force would help stabilize the situation, working with the Lebanese government to help strengthen its army and deployed fully throughout the area.

3. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government would fully implement Security Council Resolution 1559 and 1680 to establish Lebanese sovereignty and control.

4. The prime minister of Lebanon would unequivocally confirm to the secretary general and the Security Council that the government of Lebanon will respect the Blue Line in its entirety until agreement on Lebanon’s final international boundaries is reached.

5. A donor conference would be established with immediate effect — sorry, a donor framework — a donor framework would be established with immediate effect to secure funding for an urgent package of aid, reconstruction and development of Lebanon.

6. A mechanism would be established composed of key regional and international actors to monitor and guarantee the implementation of all aspects of the agreements.

7. An international conference should be organized with broad Lebanese and international participation to develop precise time lines for a speedy and full implementation of the Taif Agreement and further measures needed for Lebanon to comply with its international obligations under Security Council Resolution 1559 and 1680.

8. The conference would also endorse a delineation of Lebanon’s international borders, including a final resolution on all disputed areas, especially the Shebaa Farms.

And there you have it. The Lebanese army will disarm and disband Hizballah with the aid of UNIFIL+. Defining the “+” will be key, but if under Blue Hats, little is likely to change.

The key here is the repeated reference to defining borders and Sheeba Farms. Expect Israel, regardless of the fate of this plan, to be pressured into ceding the Sheeba Farms.

Interesting math. Hizballah attacks the IDF, kills eight and abducts two. Israel responds in self defense and, in the end, will be painted as the aggressor and strong-armed into giving Lebanon Sheeba Farms.

By Steve Schippert at 2:12 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

Via Captain’s Quarters, ever vigilant, comes word that a leading Saudi sheik’s fatwa against Hizballah, forbidding any measure of support for Hizballah, including joining, funding or even prayers.

al-Qaeda has trained many men in Hizballah’s Bekaa Valley. Perhaps Sheik Abdullah bin Jabreen did not consult fellow Saudi Wahhabi, Osama bin Laden.

Page two offers some interesting background on the Wahhabi fatwa against the Shi’ite terrorist group.

The division between Sunnis and Shiites goes back to the Koran. Mohammed’s son in law, Ali, claimed that he had been chosen as his successor, and to this day Shiites believe that Ali held the true claim to the Caliphate. Sunnis believe the prophet made no such choice and recognize the line of Caliphs that began with Abu Bakr, the choice of the prophet’s companions after his death.

One can pick up some of this history in Mr. Jebreen’s fatwa. In it he refers to Shiite Hezbollah as “rafidhis,” meaning rejecters. In his religious edict, Mr. Jebreen writes, “Our advice to the Sunnis is to denounce them and shun those who join them to show their hostility to Islam and to the Muslims.”

“Three years ago, I have not been seeing chatter along such lines.This became more prevalent following [the dead Al Qaeda leader in Iraq] Zarqawi’s declarations against Shia. Iraq has a lot to do with this,” Ms. Katz said yesterday. A week before Zarqawi was killed in June, he gave a four hour sermon entitled, “Did you get the message of the Shiites,” where Ms. Katz says he portrayed the Shiites as the enemies of Sunni Muslims.

Evidence that, absent a US or Israeli target, certain sects of both the Sunni and Shia would likely simply redirect and consume each other instead.

Will there ever be an end?

By Steve Schippert at 12:28 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

While so many clamor for a cease-fire and the de facto preservation of Iran’s Hizballah terror proxies, Michael Ledeen recognizes this as A Window of Opportunity:

And so they struck, first in Gaza, then in northern Israel, and, as always, in Iraq and Afghanistan and India. They imagined, just as Osama had prophesied five years earlier (almost to the Muslim day; according to their calendar Wednesday the 19th was the anniversary of our 9/11), that the regional assault would bring our allies and us to our knees. We would lose our will to fight, and abandon the battlefield to the army of Allah, and Hamas, and Moqtada, and the Badr brigades, and all the others.

It’s the same misunderestimation as before, for tyrants have always been unable to imagine the remarkable ability of free people to respond to challenge, and to organize quickly, voluntarily, and effectively to fight their enemies. Hizballah now risks rout, and Assad, sensing his peril, is whispering promises of betrayal in order to ensure his own survival. The Iranians still threaten Armageddon, but, so far at least, have been unable to demonstrate the capacity to provoke it….

When dealing with the epicenter of global terrorism, letting up just as the beast shows signs of squirming defies the logic of victory.

…Now is the time to tell our soldiers in Iraq that “hot pursuit” is okay, that the terrorist training camps on both sides of Iraq are legitimate targets, to be attacked in self-defense. Now is the time to tell the Iraqi government to come forward with the abundant evidence of Iranian evil-doing, and that we will support a fight against the mullahs’ foot soldiers in Iraq. These actions will signal the next stage of the war against the terror masters, which is the vigorous support of the pro-democracy forces in Syria and Iran…

It is a wondrous window of opportunity. As so often in our history, it was opened by our enemies. Let’s go for it.

Now, please. It may not open again for quite a while.

It is a war neither declared nor started by us, executed at the initiative of the Islamist terrorists. We cannot continue to ignore the terror masters and refuse to annihilate their Hizballah terror machine. Enacting a cease-fire and ignoring Iran is to force Israel and the entire West to accept the wolf’s menacing bite today, only to wake up another more frightful day with the wolf consuming its prey.

By Steve Schippert at 10:19 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Olivier Guitta offers more important missed facts on the Hezbollah/Iran/Syria-Israel war, including how Syria maintains a presence via Lebanese appointments, the three month planning of the Hizballah abduction operation, and perhaps most significantly, the following:

But the Arabic version of the piece is, as usual, much more detailed: the 200 Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been stationed in Lebanon since 1990. They have married Shia Lebanese women, mostly “Hezbollah widows” and have changed their names to Lebanese names. They installed over twenty fixed rocket bases in the Bekaa Valley and provided Hezbollah with mobile bases to launch rockets. Furthermore a secret elite force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard composed of about twenty men is watching the Israel Defense Forces’ every move with very sophisticated high-tech material and then deciding on the targets to hit inside Israel.

5- Hezbollah is purposefully using Christian, Sunni and Druze villages to fire rockets at Israel. In fact, they count on Israel retaliating in these places, killing non-Shia civilians who then in turn might become hostile to Israel and side with Hezbollah.

Again, the use of civilians as shields and sacrificial propaganda tools, post-mortem. Now, in addition to embedding themselves among their own civilian population (Hizballah’s Shia in the south), but now clearly look to sacrifice their Christian, Sunni and Druze Lebanese internal competitors. This clearly defines the line of moral demarcation between us and our Islamist terrorist enemies.

By Steve Schippert at 8:38 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The headline reads: UN working on new deal between Israel and Lebanon. It opens:

The United Nations is working toward a new diplomatic arrangement between Israel and Lebanon that will be based on implementation of Security Council Resolution 1559, calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah, the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty, and the deployment of the Lebanese army to southern Lebanon.

No diplomatic deal between Israel and the Lebanese government is going to disarm Hizballah. Period.

The “restoration of Lebanese sovereignty” would necessarily include the defeat of Hizballah - in place - and the return of the land of Hizballistan to the Lebanese people.

There is no way that the Lebanese Army is going to deploy and disarm Hizballah. Quite the opposite would be the more likely outcome.

If it is truly desired by the UN that Hizballah be disarmed, they would abandon designs on a ceasefire and move their reams of paper from the path of IDF Merkavas.

Even then, without a blocking force, much of Hizballah would merely be pushed from the south into Syria only to await another day, re-armed.

That’s just the way it is. There are no easy answers.

By Steve Schippert at 9:52 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The Jerusalem Post reports that, in “an impassioned speech to the Knesset” today, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert leveled Israel’s three demands for a cease fire:

1) Hizballah’s return of kidnapped soldiers.
2) Cessation of rocket attacks on Israeli cities.
3) Deployment of Lebanese Army along its southern border.

The third is clearly the most difficult to achieve, for a multitude of reasons. It is, however, not an unreasonable demand. This clearly displays that, while Israel ‘holds the Lebanese government responsible’ for Hizballah’s actions in southern Lebanon, Israel is clearly not at war with the State of Lebanon. Clearly, they want the Lebanese government to be in control vice Hizballah, whom they are at war with.

“When missiles are launched at our residents and our towns, our answer will be war waged at full strength, with all determination, courage and sacrifice,” he [PM Olmert] said.

“We are not looking for war or direct conflict, but if necessary we will not be frightened by it,” added the prime minister.

Lebanon is reluctant to deploy its army to the south for fear of rekindling a paused but yet-unsettled civil war, sparking a bloodbath between Shi’ite Hizballah in the south and Sunnis from northern Lebanon.

It appears quite necessary for the IDF to ‘soften’ Hizballah significantly before the Lebanese army would make such a move, with or without the 2004 UN Security Council Resolution 1559 (PDF: Resolution 1559 Text here), which called for the Lebanese Army to disarm the terrorist organization.

By Steve Schippert at 1:20 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)