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The Coming Transition and Tangles in Afghanistan

In New Attacks Foment Fear in Afghanistan, Pamela Constable of the Washington Post includes two key paragraphs that spell out a simple reality for the spring and summer in Afghanistan, aside from the Taliban's repeated threats of a new offensive and great carnage.

Over the next several months, more than 6,000 troops from Britain and other NATO countries are slated to take over security in the southern region, and analysts are predicting a bloody debut.

"Transitions are a time of testing, and both sides will have something to prove -- the NATO forces to show they are tough, their opponents to show they won't run," said Joanna Nathan, who heads the Kabul office of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, a nonprofit advocacy and research group. "There will be more troops and more targets. It will be a pretty messy summer." [Emphasis added.]

Joanna Nathan just nailed it.