HomeFeaturesDailyBriefingsRapidReconGlobal Crisis WatchSpecial ReportsAbout Us

« March 2006 | Return to RapidRecon | May 2006 »

April 30, 2006

Soon...Cuba

Eighty year old Castro is ailing. His named successor, his brother (74), is worse. And at the Strategy Page, a glimpse into the near future is offered, taking particular note of the younger generation of Cubans who will almost certainly lead a charge to supplant communist rule with a democratic system and the free-market economy that accompanies it.

But a new generation of Cubans have been exposed to many embarrassing truths. Most awkward was the fact that, half a century ago, Cuba was the most prosperous and socially advanced island in the Caribbean. Communist rule has changed all that. While the communist increased literacy, and trained a lot of doctors, Cuban reading habits are heavily censored, and the medical system is primitive because the feeble economy cannot afford medicine or equipment to deliver effective care. Cuba has become an economic basket case, when, without Castro and his communists, it could have become an economic powerhouse.

Young Cubans also know what happened in Eastern Europe in 1989, and what has happened there, politically and economically, since. Just to rub it in, the new tourism enterprises in Cuba are sometimes visited by newly affluent East Europeans, and the money earned tends to go to members and associates of the Castro family. There is growing anger and unrest. For half a century, the American invasion never came, and the scare story is wearing thin.

Surely there are young thinkers in Cuba writing amongst themselves and concluding nearly every effort with a trademark “Más rápidamente satisfaga.”

Subterfuge over Iran's centrifuges

In an excellent commentary, the Christian Science Monitor hits the nail on the head with regards to the contradiction between Iran’s stated peaceful intentions of their nuclear technology advances and Iran’s agressive language regarding the regional security environment, including direct threats to Israel and strong-arm intimidation of its Gulf neighbors. The editors get there by examining the similarities between the UN-centric run-up to the war in Iraq and the current wrangling over Iran.

Parallels with the Bush administration’s diplomatic build-up to the Iraq war cannot be ignored. But such a comparison is weakened by two other examples: the West persuading Libya to give up its nuclear program, and a patient three-year effort by the US and four Asian nations to talk North Korea out of its atomic bombs.

Both those examples suggest to some that the US talk directly to Iran. With Libya, such talks worked because it wanted economic benefits for its people. Talks with North Korea are failing because it prefers to brandish nuclear weapons as a way to wield power over its neighbors.

Iran, too, appears more interested in extending its regional and global power rather than lifting its people out of massive joblessness. If it wants nuclear weapons, then that goal doesn’t appear to be defensive.

Indeed, Iran has a funny way of taking care of its people and conveying peace to its neighbors.

CEO Observations From Iraq

Have you ever heard of Business Executives for National Security (BENS)? One of those executives, Joseph E. Robert Jr., recently traveled to Iraq to see the situation for himself. His column in the Washington Post, Dedication and Danger in Iraq, is an important non-media observation. (Thanks Smash.)

I’ve had the opportunity to travel to Iraq three times, most recently last month, courtesy of the nonpartisan Business Executives for National Security. On every trip I’m struck by the difference between the Iraq I hear and read about back home and the Iraq I see in person. Iraq defies expectations and easy definition.

For me as a business executive, these visits provide a firsthand look at the largest U.S. reconstruction effort since the Marshall Plan. As the father of a Marine who recently returned from a tour in Iraq, I find that these trips also offer a glimpse of our frontline troops that few military families ever see. Among my general impressions:

Read them here.

BENS is an incredible organization, offering leadership by example on how Americans can become involved and contribute to an ultimate victory in prosecuting the Global War on Terror. It is a generational war, requiring patience, steadfastness and perseverance. Many openly wonder where the ‘Rosie the Riveter’ spirit is today. That spirit is alive and well at BENS.

We at ThreatsWatch salute the members of Business Executives for National Security.

Closing in on Zarqawi?

The Marine Corps Times had an article noting that special forces units had come close to nabbing the bloodthirsty terrorist in mid-April.

Just nine days before al-Qaida in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi released his latest video, a special operations raid killed five of his men, captured five others and apparently came within a couple of city blocks of nabbing Zarqawi himself.

Then, the day Zarqawi’s video debuted, special ops forces killed 12 more of his troops in a second raid in the same town.

The raids in Yusufiyah, 20 miles southwest of Baghdad in the heart of the Sunni Triangle, were the latest battles in a small, vicious war being waged largely in the shadows of the wider counterinsurgency effort.

The recent video release with Zarqawi was assuring all the he was alive and well & still on the warpath against Iraqis and Americans alike.

Today, consider the following from Reuters: US, Iraqi troops kill more than 20 foreign rebels

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - U.S. and Iraqi forces killed more than 20 foreign insurgents, several of them wearing suicide vests, during raids south of Baghdad in the past few weeks, the U.S. military said on Sunday.

The raids took place in and around Yusifiya, a village 15 km (9 miles) south of Baghdad, which insurgents have used as a staging area for suicide attacks in Baghdad, the military said in a statement. [snip]

U.S. and Iraqi forces captured seven wanted insurgents and detained more than 50 other suspects on Saturday during raids on locations believed to be safe houses for foreign fighters and al Qaeda-linked leaders, the military said.

Mixed Humor of Security Watchtower sent a heads up to that story this morning, forwarding a press release from Multi-National Force Iraq citing the same and almost certainly the source of the Reuters story. He normally has a quick reaction time, so be sure to add Security Watchtower to your list of monitored sites today (and going forward).

Also, see the Counterterrorism Blog for more on Zarqawi and Task Force 145, the Task Force hunting down the biggest and most dangerous enemy to the fledgling democracy that is Iraq.

One thing is for certain, if Zarqawi is not among the captured or killed on this day, the noose is tightening and that day may be close at hand.

France Chooses Wrong Side Of History

France’s recent history regarding its foreign relations with the Middle East is stark indeed, and its continuing policies of appeasement have not given France the open-arm welcome it expected. In 2003, although France condemned Saddam’s actions, France would not support military action against Iraq. As was later proven, France was actively violating UN sanctions by maintaining lucrative financial contacts with Saddam’s regime. The fall of Iraq would highlight France’s complicity in continuing to keep Saddam armed in the lead up to the war, which also put them on the wrong side of the war.

France’s open immigration policy resulted in extensive unemployment for Muslim immigrants and first generation youth born to immigrants. They rioted extensively last fall - torching significant parts of France. The French government seemed surprised that the immigrants were not content with just being in France - they actually wanted much more. Standing as a beacon to the naive, France continues its resistance to history’s lessons.

Why would France promote funding for the Palestinian Authority?

Standing aside Chirac was PLO chairman Mahmoud Abbas, who is on a European tour playing the role of the Palestinian moderate. “The international community should give this new government the opportunity to express itself, to adapt, to harmonize itself with international law,” Abbas said. “Hamas is adapting. Hamas is today a government, a responsible government with ministers who are working with neighbors, with the Israelis and the world.”

Excuse me? Hamas has expressed itself very clearly - the ultimate goal of Hamas is the complete removal of Israel. The only concession it has made to date has been to begin negotiations regarding Israel’s surrender and a complete Jewish withdrawal, only if Israel withdraws to the 1967 borders. As for complying with international law, the government has to do that from inception - there is no grace period. Hamas has been in the big chair now for exactly one month. In that time, there’s been two suicide bombings, thirteen murdered Israeli civilians. And now nearly complete anarchy in Gaza.

Yes, there have been plenty of Palestinians killed in the past month, too. Violence begets violence - with Hamas declarations in open support of terrorism, Israel has no choice but to act against any perceived impending terrorist acts. The Palestinians will continue to die as long as their so-called legitimate government incites them to act against Israel. If Hamas renounced violence and began controlling its people, then it would be acting as a government should. Its current course is destructive, not only for itself, but for its people.

If France chooses this course of action, then Hamas would use the donations from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and Russia for other purposes. France cannot see this? The U.S. and its allies who refuse to fund Hamas are using a UN-approved method of taking a peaceful approach in getting a rogue government to act within the boundaries of the civilized world. The funding that we’re talking about is aid - we simply give it and expect a minimal level of gratitude in response. We have no contractual requirement to give away our money and morally, we cannot give it to one country so that it can be used against one of our allies. Is France so myopic?

And Hamas, for their part, appreciate France’s efforts.

Hamas, which is not asked to make any compromise to its position in order to have the PA salaries paid – including those of tens of thousands of Hamas members and terrorists – did not object to the plan. “Any means that will maintain the authority of the government and the preservation of money and at the same time help the Palestinian people we will study and think about thoroughly,” Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh said of the proposal.

It is considerate on the part of Hamas to study and think about free money from France so that it can continue its war against Israel. French foreign policy defies logic and will continue to put France on the wrong side of history..

April 29, 2006

Proud Crusaders: Zawahiri Transcript

Evan Kohlmann has published the transcript of Zawahiri’s latest message at the Counterterrorism Blog. Perhaps the most interesting tidbit is below:

“As for the second thing I wish to talk to you about, it is the dark fate towards which the traitor Musharraf is pushing Pakistan. Without a doubt, Pakistan is one of the most important of the countries targeted by this new colonialist Crusade which seeks to weaken Pakistan and fragment it into entities under the control of India, which is allied with the Americans and Jews.”

al-Qaeda is calling for the overthrow of Musharraf. Not exactly news. We’ve been one bullet away from one less ally in the War on Terror since late 2001.

One thought echoed persistent while reading through Zawahiri’s latest pearls of wisdom.

Why do Western analysts and media give any credence to or even repeat the folly put forth that America has declared War on Islam? Is there ever a communiqué, tape, video or text posting from our adversaries that does not mention, defame or threaten the evil ‘Jews’?

Zawahiri names Americans, people of a specific nationality. He also names Jews…a people of a specific faith.

Often, the hatred and open warfare against this religious group is not even veiled thinly as to be referred to as ‘Israel’.

And we are the crusaders?

Not hardly.

Russia Continues Daily Anti-American Propaganda

What will Pravda come up with next? The evil multi-culturalism of America is today’s topic to attack America. And as I begin all commentary regarding a Pravda article, Pravda is the mouthpiece of the Russian government. Also note that Pravda is Russian for “truth.” An oxymoron to minimize all other oxymorons within this world. I’ll let quotes from the article speak for themselves - they are actually quite humorous:)

Not much logic to history. Big names in civilizations come and go, at the whim of unpredictable trends and processes. One of the ugly realities of modernity is that the world has become a junkyard of failed ideologies. To live in the present is like trying to relax on the comfortable porch of a home surrounded by unsightly putrid piles of garbage. (The upside of this situation is that the thinking person can identify the values which are worth cultivating, simply by noting what is missing in the failed ideologies). One ugly ideology of the present is what I call Americanism: the politics, culture, and morality of the United States since the mid-twentieth century.

The crude propaganda of the Soviet Union pales in comparison with the spin which America has produced. Clintons excelled at it (though to the point, finally, that no one believed Bill at all), but George W. is perhaps as good (thanks to his speechwriters and neoconservative mentors). A prime reserve of America’s current dishonesty, on the war, for example, is the mouth of W., rancher and former baseball magnate, who prides himself on his aloofness from world history, geography, and reality. W. claims publicly to be guided by his identification with American-style Christianity. (The Bush dynasty is diplomatically areligious. W. is a “born-again” Evangelical, though recently I saw an internet photo of W. toting a large Talmud. George Sr. attends Anglican worship. Jeb claims he’s Catholic. One envisions a scenario in which future Bushes enthusiastically embrace victorious Islam).

The American experiment now has been taken to its logical conclusion. America functioned well under the system of the melting pot, according to which my ancestors in America were required to sacrifice their language and culture. America once had some sort of common system of values, but lost it after the 1960s, when America embraced moral and cultural relativism, political correctness, and sham multiculturalism. It’s true that periodically W. and other Americans publicly thump a leather-bound Bible, or even display tablets inscribed with the Ten Commandments, but that’s mainly for show and no longer signifies the deepest convictions of the majority of Americans.

True human multiculturalism is a marvelous thing. America’s multiculti is a lie, outrageous as the grossest piece of Soviet propaganda. The Soviet Union, ultimately, was consigned to the trash heap of human history. Without the Soviet threat, Americanism is now irrelevant. As with other once great civilizations, America and Americanism are perishing.

Interesting view of things and this author’s diatribe contains just enough truthful elements to be convincing to the uninformed. The good news is that although Russians read Pravda, they are like American readers of the World Weekly News (this week’s headline - Titanic never sank!) - they read it for entertainment value, not information. The new Socialist, yet Capitalist, Russian, yet Soviet, Communist, yet Democratic Republic continues its efforts to take over the world (visualize if you will, a cat, paws raised, an evil grin on its furry face)!

Terror Tax - Maybe Some Hope

Although gasoline prices would not normally be a topic for these pages, high oil prices benefit countries that we would prefer were not benefitted (Iran and Venezuela , for example). With Venezuela’s diplomatic support of Iran (the enemy of my enemy) and Iran’s open support for the likes of Hezbullah, Hamas, and Al Qaeda in Iraq, profits for Iran translate into the terror tax, direct funding for terrorism against Israel, the West, and surprisingly (or not to those who have studied the history of the Middle East) other Muslims!

The Republicans in the Senate actually wrote a bill that attempts to placate current concerns regarding high energy prices, without penalizing capitalism (no new taxes on oil profits), and recognizing that we must take full advantage of our own natural resources (proposed drilling in ANWR), and then address a longer term concern, vehicle fuel economy until alternatives can be engineered (like hydrogen fuel). Although market capitalism won’t really be affected by this bill, the key element is recognizing that we must limit our foreign dependence.

Despite the jockeying for political advantage, economists and energy experts generally agreed that the government has few, if any, immediate powers to drive pump prices down from their $3-plus perch.

But the political wrangling, the back and forth gotcha-game that is defining 2006 continues.

“It’s a bold package to help consumers … to help ease the pain,” said Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn. He promised a vote on the measures by Tuesday.

“We are going to ease the burden,” said Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

Democrats criticized the GOP proposal because it linked attempts at short-term relief with oil drilling in an Alaskan wildlife refuge; the exploration idea has divided the Senate for decades.

“It’s designed to protect Big Oil while mistakenly believing that drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge will solve America’s energy problems,” said Reid’s spokesman, Jim Manley.

I personally don’t see how exploiting our own available resources is a mistake. The unspoken end of Reid’s position is that “by not drilling in ANWR, we continue our dependence on foreign oil, which means we continue to pay the terror tax.” I understand that the long-term solution is less dependence on oil - that much we all agree on. Oil is a limited commodity, but like all things, it can be replaced when there is sufficient need. Right now, the technology is not up to speed on delivering a technical alternative. Hydrogen may be the way, but then again, there might be something else - there are smart people working on this all over the world - we need to support and laud their efforts, encouraging those with promise (and not simply throwing money at the problem, which encourages sensationalism and corruption). Nuclear power for domestic electricity may be an answer. All alternatives need to be looked into. But in the very short term, we need to limit our dependence from overseas suppliers. The Democrats offer no near-term alternatives besides continued payment of the Terror Tax. This is the most unacceptable of all options.

Against Iran Conflict? Start Supporting Iraq

If one speaks to an anti-Iraq War activist (or inactivist complainer) and asks about conflict with Iran, the response is almost guaranteed to be anti-Iran Conflict as well. Yet, it has always amazed me that the so-called peace-loving leftists not only had no problem sentencing Iraqis to a dictatorship of torture, rape and oppression (nor have no problem with the same for Iranians), but that they somehow seemingly make a connection between the lack of US action of any type and a sudden outbreak of peace and harmony throughout the region. If an individual is of the position that American action on Iran is to be avoided, then that individual had better start supporting the government attempting to stand and hold together in Iraq.

So obsessed, it seems, with proving themselves right, they would sentence entire peoples to brutal dictatorships. So obsessed, it seems, with opposing their own president, they gain satisfaction with every bad news report from Iraq (essentially meaning nearly every dominant media assessment).

Driving to work today (and every day), the radio news opened with a one sentence report. “In Iraq, an American soldier was killed by an IED today.” That was it. Just wanted to let you know that a man died. That Iraq is bad. No mention of his unit nor what they may have been doing. No mention of where the attack had taken place. No mention of where he was from or why he joined the military service he had chosen. No mention of anything other than Iraq = Dead. The media often claims that they cannot announce the name because it had not been released at the time.

Is there an off chance that tomorrow, for the first time, that same station will revisit the story and inform me of the man behind the sacrifice? Of course not.

That’s Matt’s job, not theirs.

Perhaps those who read, hear, see or make such reports to confirm their self-righteous correctness rather than mourn and/or respect the sacrifice made should consider the words of Victor Davis Hanson [Thanks, Bruce Kesler] from an interview with Hugh Hewitt Thursday (transcript courtesy Radio Blogger):

HH: Now Victor Davis Hanson, then, how significant are the days in which we are living? Because the alternative to doing that, and you make it sound remote, and I have to agree if it was a different president, I would think it was remote. The prospect of a nuclear Iran is really extraordinary.

VDH: I think it is, and more importantly, this is a man who says that he’s the biggest supporter of Hamas, and yet from his rhetoric, you understand he’s willing, probably, to send a missile into East Jerusalem as if 50 kilotons can tell the difference between East and West Jerusalem. I mean, that’s how he treats his friends like the Palestinians. He says I’ll help you by nuking the people right next to you. I mean, it’s crazy. He listens to a voice in a well. He thinks people can’t blink, and we don’t know to what degree this is staged or real. So we don’t have a lot of options. It’s bad and worse. Oddly enough, the people who don’t want to use military force under any circumstances in Iran should be the biggest supporters of what’s going on in Iraq. Because with this recent presidential change, there’s a good chance that we could end up with a government that would prove very destabilizing to the theocracy in Iran. But to say you can’t use force in Iran, and yet you’re not for what we’re doing in Iraq, then you really don’t have any options that are peaceful.

But their point is not that they disagree with the Iraq War or even conflict with Iran as much as it is that they disagree with the man who defeated their candidates twice. Do not forget that even when Afghanistan was invaded, the opposition was one founded on quagmire and the Russian experience, which we were doomed to repeat at the hands of the invincible Islamic warriors. They predicted massive casualties…as if they cared about any one of them.

And that says a lot about what is wrong today with the Land of Happy Meals and the K-Mart Shoppers who inhabit it. They would rather lose a war and ignore a tyrannical state sponsor of terrorism racing toward nuclear weapons than be wrong in public.

Is there a Harry Truman alive today?

April 28, 2006

Sunnis, Shias & Soviets

Over at OPFOR, Charlie takes a look at a new Mid East Order comprised of a rising Shia Crescent, a rising Sunni Crescent and old Soviet client states (Syria, Egypt and Algeria).

We all know main story of what’s going on in the Middle East, but I want analyze a possible new direction: a Shia Crescent rising, a Sunni Crescent rising, and the secular, Soviet client state’s desperate fight against a)America, b)Extremism, and c)Israel. Things are (have been/will be/always have been) getting worse, and things are reaching a boiling point. Countries are arming themselves to the teeth for what they see as a coming war, Imams are preaching, nuclear weapons are being pursued, and in the middle of it all, the US military, along with the national interest and any hope for peace in the region hangs precariously. Let’s break down what we know:

For that, you’ll have to go read.

Sneak Peek at IAEA Iran Report

With excellent sources, the good people at Vital Perspective are able to provide a sneak peek at the IAEA report on Iran, and it appears to be rather damning for Iran. [Note: This decidedly does not mean that anything concrete will come as a result.]

Vital Perspective noted an important segment of text which can be used to support the note above.

The report states that “gaps remain in the Agency’s [IAEA] knowledge with respect to the scope and content of Iran’s centrifuge programme. Because of this, and other gaps in the Agency’s knowledge, including the role of the military in Iran’s nuclear programme, the Agency is unable to make progress in its efforts to provide assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.”

This is nothing new from the IAEA. They have maintained this throughout the crisis. It should be noted that the IAEA solution has always been more talks on more inspections. Expect this ‘solution’ to reappear as the answer again, ultimately with the same result.

At some point, it must be publicly (or even privately?) acknowledged that the IAEA - or anyone else for that matter - will see precisely what Iran wants to show them. No more and no less.

Ultimately, this futile process must be abandoned.

Denial of Service Attack

As you might have noticed, many sites - including ThreatsWatch - have been down this morning due to a denial of service attack on Hosting Matters.

At the moment, ThreatsWatch’s dedicated server is available again - and the other sites hosted on it are up and running.

We apologize for the inconvenience.

Annual Terrorism Report

A real short note here - expect a highly politicized attack on the Bush Administration starting at just after noon today. The State Department’s annual terrorism report will show that terror attacks have risen sharply. My G-d! That’s terrible! How could that have happened?

Because Congressional legislation changed how we count. So the rise is not attributable to a rise in attacks, but that man other types of violence are now included in the report. When you see the Democratic news conferences after noon today, expect that the rise in the number will be the primary talking point, with a follow-on that the Republicans are not stopping terrorism. Be prepared because it is coming.

Refer to the preview report from CNN. The key section that makes this year’s number an apple and orange comparison to last year’s number is as follows.

The official said the incidence of terrorist acts tallied in this year’s report will be up significantly because of new congressional legislation mandating that domestic acts of terrorism be counted as well. For example, deaths as a result of sectarian attacks among Iraq’s ethnic groups will be counted, as will around 30,000 kidnappings by Maoists in Nepal.

The important points for the warfighters in this report are that the terrorist groups are more decentralized and more lethal. Refer to my previous posts regarding the Global Jihad (here and here). The train is heading down the tracks and neither bin Laden, Zawahiri, or al Zarqawi can control it. Glick’s article describes how the groups have expanded the war. Like a black hole of evil, everything nearby gets sucked in. The clash of civilizations is underway and this report will show that extremist Islam is everywhere.

Unfortunately, what I predict that you will hear on the news after the report is made official today is that Bush is failing - “Just look at the numbers!” “Look how bad the other guy is - vote for me!” And politics is the last thing we need if we are serious about fighting a war to keep civilization free.

Global Jihad Update

Refer to our primary article in the PrincipleAnalysis section, for the background and overview of the ongoing clash of civilizations. In today’s Jewish World Review comes an analysis by Caroline Glick, who breaks down the links between the key terrorist personalities and groups, showing a tapestry of evil that includes Israel, Jordan, Egypt and others who had been on the outside of the Global Jihad.

The face of the enemy has changed. If in the past it was possible to say that the war being waged against Israel was unique and distinct from the global jihad, after the events of the past week, it is no longer possible to credibly make such a claim. Four events that occurred this week — the attacks in the Sinai; the release of Osama bin Laden’s audiotape; the release of Abu Musab Zarqawi’s videotape; and the arrest of Hamas terrorists by Jordan — all proved clearly that today it is impossible to separate the wars. The new situation has critical consequences for the character of the campaign that the IDF must fight to defend Israel and for the nature of the policies that the incoming government of Israel must adopt and advance.

The unsettling conclusion of Glick’s article is the consensus we’ve reached at Threats Watch - the Islamist cause has united groups that have only one thing in common - hatred. The enemy of my enemy…

While al Qaida today is setting its sights on Israel and its neighbors, the arrests of Hamas terrorists this week in Jordan shows that for their part, the Palestinians are working to advance the global jihad. The Hamas attempt to carry out attacks in Jordan points to a change in Hamas’s self-perception. They have gone from being local terrorists to being members of the Islamist axis, which is led by Iran and includes Syria, al Qaida and Hizbullah.

As the attacks in Egypt, the arrests in Jordan and the bin Laden and Zarqawi messages this week all indicated, we find ourselves today in a world war. The Palestinians are no longer the ones waging the war against us. The Islamist axis now wages the war against us through the Palestinians. The center of gravity, like the campaign rationale of the enemy, has moved away. Today, the decision-makers who determine the character and timing of the terror offensives are not sitting in Gaza and or Judea and Samaria. They are sitting in Tehran, Waziristan, Damascus, Beirut, Amman and Falujah. The considerations that guide those that order the trigger pulled are not local considerations, but regional considerations at best and considerations wholly cut off from local events at worst.

Take a look at the entire article - a lot of names, groups, and undeniable coordination. She makes her case so that the new Israeli government will refine its approach to dealing with terrorism and stop the plan for withdrawal from Judea and Samaria.

April 27, 2006

Counterterrorism in African Failed States

The US Army’s Strategic Studies Institute has published a new monograph by Colonel Thomas Dempsey that is well worth your time: Counterterrorism in African Failed States: Challenges and Potential Solutions. The monograph focuses on Sub-Saharan Africa, principally the failed states of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Somalia.

Al Qaeda established terrorist hubs in Liberia and Sierra Leone to exploit the illegal diamond trade, laundering money, and building connections with organized crime and the illegal arms trade. In Somalia, Al Qaeda and Al Ittihad Al Islami established terrorist hubs that supported terrorist operations throughout East Africa. A new organization led by Aden Hashi ’Ayro recruited terrorist nodes that executed a series of attacks on Western nongovernment organization (NGO) employees and journalists within Somalia.

Analysis of these groups suggests that while the terrorist nodes in failed states pose little threat to the interests of the United States or its GWOT partners, terrorist hubs operating in the same states may be highly dangerous. The hubs observed in these three failed states were able to operate without attracting the attention or effective sanction of the United States or its allies. They funneled substantial financial resources, as well as sophisticated weaponry, to terrorist nodes operating outside the failed states in which the hubs were located. The threat posed by these hubs to U.S. national interests and to the interests of its partners is significant, and is made much more immediate by the growing risk that nuclear Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) will fall into terrorist hands.

The burgeoning proliferation of nuclear weapons and the poor security of some existing nuclear stockpiles make it more likely that terrorist groups like Al Qaeda will gain access to nuclear weapons. The accelerating Iranian covert nuclear weapons program, estimated to produce a nuclear capability within as little as one year, is especially disturbing in this context. A failed state terrorist hub that secures access to a nuclear weapon could very conceivably place that weapon in the hands of a terrorist node in a position to threaten vital American national interests.

Dempsey brings into the fold the loss of control over WMD assets in the former Soviet Union and the employment of their WMD scientists abroad in states such as Iran, North Korea and Syria.

More recent reporting on the situation is hardly more encouraging. A survey in 2002 of 602 Russian scientists working in the Russian WMD sector revealed that roughly 20 percent of the Russian scientists interviewed expressed a willingness to work for nations identified as WMD proliferators: Iran, North Korea or Syria. Most recently, Busch and Holmes have catalogued the efforts of rogue states and of Al Qaeda to acquire nuclear weapons capability from the inadequately controlled Russian nuclear sector, and have identified the human element of that sector as being especially vulnerable. When viewed in combination with the growing influence and reach of Russian organized crime, the lack of security in the Russian weaponized nuclear technology sector represents a significant risk of nuclear capability finding its way into the hands of terrorist hubs. Exacerbating this risk are the efforts of non-nuclear states that are seeking to develop a nuclear strike capability.

An excellent monograph and a pretty good primer on what may become the next major visible theater in the GWoT.

Demise of America

According to this editorial in Pravda, America’s vices are now Russia’s problems, thanks to America.

“That country is drowning in vices directly linked to the West’s concept of inherent rights and liberties: abortion; homosexuality; dissolution of traditional marriage; pornography; slavery, prostitution, and exploitation of the oppressed, etc.”

Pravda remains the propaganda organ of the Russian Government. Who would this article be pandering to? Would it be a liberal expose, telling Russian society that its problems are not its fault? Or would it be a payback to Iran - this editorial seems eerily reminiscent of Extremist Islam’s view of the West.

I focus here on similarities between America and the Soviet Union, two rival systems which have collapsed. Both systems boasted some admirable ideals. There was a period of several decades in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century when America offered immigrants numerous opportunities, which many citizens took advantage of. The Soviet record is more spotted. It took me some time to understand the Soviets’ rabid anti-religiousness. Why did the Soviets work so tirelessly to destroy traditional Russian culture, much of which is, in fact, oriented towards biblical Christian socialism?

I don’t even know where to begin in commenting on that last paragraph. Biblical Christian socialism? The Soviet Union? I must have missed something in a byline somewhere. The Soviets destroyed thousands of churches. The only thing “biblical” about the Soyuz was its attempt to enact Armageddon upon anyone professing faith in a higher being than the Chairman of the Central Committee.

Democracy for several generations now has not existed in America. The large corporations continue to increase their power, irregardless of the red or blue façade of the regime. The moral pedigree of a Clinton is as nasty as that of a Bush. As identified by a recent controversial study ignored by the American media, it is, indeed, a cabal of pro-Israeli groups which controls America’s purse-strings and foreign policy.

And now it becomes clear - yes, this is a payback to Iran. Mention the Jews and climb right into bed with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. At least since the author is a man, he can look upon another man’s body, without shame or fear of reprisal. And here’s the winning non-emotional, well-reasoned conclusion from Mr. O’Donnell (although I would say that he has a couple points in there).

It is the twenty-first century. America is rat-infested history. America will fall, overrun by fatwah-inspired Muslims; wild, dispossessed, self-identified Apache or Aztec guerillas; looting, reparations-deluded African-Americans; indignant Eskimos; flaming cross-dressers and advocates of every sort of politically correct nonsense. History doesn’t last forever, and anyway, America had a couple of good centuries before it turned to cr*p.

Free Speech Abused

Another attack on an institution that has kept this country strong - UNC Chapel Hill’s ROTC Armory was violated by those who are obviously under a misperception that there is both a draft and a war where we send cannon fodder (conscripts) - h/t Michelle Malkin. A few points for the perpetrator(s).

Assuming that it is our war - so what? We’re fighting it clearly without your help and without needing your help. You are free to go on about your life as you wish, without any interference from the military.

Your right to free speech is defended by the very souls behind these doors. And you have your rights to speak out in protest for any issue of your choice. But that right does not extend to breaking the law. Painting graffiti is a crime - a misdemeanor, mind you, but still a crime. And since this is ostensibly a federal facility (rent paid by federal funds), then you may have committed a federal crime. If that’s how you want your curriculum vitae to read, more power to you. Generally, convicted criminals don’t do to well in the job market. Maybe you intend to join the Peace Mom’s hug-a-thugathon and you would be welcomed with open arms.

You also have the right to choose in North Carolina - you can choose any course of action you deem best for yourself. But then you must be willing to accept the consequences of your actions, the result of your decision. The men and women in ROTC will risk their lives at some point during their careers - they’ve been informed of this on the way in. And they agreed to it - they exercised their freedom to choose. If they have to kill people in the line of their future duty, they’ll also have to live with that for the rest of their lives. And they are willing to do this because they believe in the freedom and liberty that Americans enjoy. And you also believe this, otherwise you would not freely protest your point of view that a world without war would be a great world indeed.

If only you could guarantee that all others would so readily accept peace, but you cannot. The argument that peace starts at home is fallacious. What did some 2700 civilians who worked in the Twin Towers have to do with Al Qaeda out of Afghanistan? Governments are bad - not people. The international cast working in the World Trade Centers on 9/11 did not deserve their fate. The argument over Iraq is a wash at this point - we are there. A reasonable debate is what is best for the people of Iraq, the Middle East, and the world as a whole.

What is the real issue that causes you to paint such things on the ROTC building? Did you lose your girlfriend to a ROTC guy because he was more manly? Or are you jealous? Not everyone is cut out for the military - many are in who should not be. That’s really okay. You can make the world a better place in your own way, without resotring to trying to tear down those who are comfortable with themselves and their decisions. In order to maintain the very high standard of officers - those who will take responsibility for the lives of those in their charge, the government needs to continue recruiting. If you don’t like the recruiting, ignore it. Don’t talk with recruiters or military people. That’s the free choice these folks have given you. Enjoy it without breaking the law, though.

I was enlisted for eight years. I was selected for the Marine Enlisted Commissioning Education Program and attended the University of Arizona as an active duty USMC Sergeant. We wore our uniforms every Wednesday. We were attached to the Naval ROTC unit. They wore their midshipmen uniforms. I was assailed on more than one occasion by anti-war students. One called me a baby killer. I retorted without thinking, “Too bad it wasn’t you.” I regretted it the second I said it. I confirmed his opinion of me and lost the intellectual battle. Later, I was spit on, in my USMC Charlie uniform. My response to this individual was much more thoroughly contemplated. “And I’ll die for your right to do that.” My personal experiences with these individuals was that they were not brave enough to be in the military, so they wanted to show how tough they were. The difference in maturity is that I knew who the enemy was - not these fresh-out-of-the-parent’s home kids, but the enemies of America. At the time, it was still the Soviet Union, but the Soyuz was crumbling before our eyes. Saddam quickly rose to fill the void…

Recently at the University of Pittsburgh, I observed socialist youth preparing to march in support of Venezuela and Cuba. No problem - this is the way peaceful, law-abiding Americans demonstrate. But around the Pitt campus, there were also stickers dropping the F-bomb on the military recruiters. The gist was to keep the recruiters off “our” campuses. Excuse me, but these campuses receive significant funds from the U.S. Government - for those funds, the campuses agree to support Affirmative Action, Equal Opportunity, non-discrimination, etc. and to allow military recruiters on campus to ply their trade. The USG bought and paid for this right and the Supreme Court recently supported it. If you don’t want to see military recruiters, go to a completely private school. If you can’t afford that, then you have to deal with what the USG has paid to help you with. Most disconcerting was an organization titled “Militant Labor” that seemed to be a bit more than just a socialist youth group. Another group supported the militaryfreezone.com (won’t link to these folks - communist socialists. Their ignorance doesn’t deserve a hit on their web page).

And a final note - the folks who love war the least are the ones who have to fight in it. But the bravery and yes, honor of this next generation of officers deserves your tolerance at the very least, if not your respect.

The Colonel Hunt Welcome Mat

There is likely not much doubt that Colonel David Hunt’s welcome mat on his front doorstep says “Go Away”. But, as Murdoc notes, this is precisely why we like him. It’s his job and he’s a master at it.

There was a lot of griping going on after the ultimate alpha male, Colonel David Hunt, challenged the panelists during the Blogging from Theater session at the MilBlog Conference. To be sure, he seemed even antagonizing, eliciting spirited responses from both panel and audience alike. But, there was a method to his madness that needs to be acknowledged, and has been quite well by Murdoc Online with ‘Tainted’ Embeds and the role of MilBloggers

Murdoc doesn’t think that MilBlogs are ever going to replace Legacy Media or DoD press releases. Though a valuable fact-checking service will be provided, and little glimpses into things otherwise unseen will be available, the majority of Americans are not going to be getting their news from MilBlogs any time soon. And if they were, you can bet that anti-war MilBlog-ish sites would be popping up like weeds to counteract the perception of “good news” offered by a substantial number of MilBlogs.

This, Murdoc thinks, is part of what Col. Hunt was getting at. He wanted to know if we thought the American public was ready to get their news from unfiltered blogs. If the military should bypass Legacy Media and just stream the goodies down to those in pajamas.

Murdoc makes outstanding points, including the following:

Even most of the sites that aspire to more than general diary-like personal reporting do not have the means and resources to get across what needs to be communicated. Not in a way that’s understandable by John Q Public. “An Army of Davids” MilBloggers might be, but no one is going to be able to keep up with enough of the Davids to really be able to understand what they need to understand about Iraq and the military. And don’t kid yourself that, even if some of the MilBlogs get “big” enough to actually do this, they won’t be facing some of the same issues (pressure from advertisers and other sources of funding, for instance) currently faced by Legacy Media. Are MilBloggers valuable? Yes. Very. But they’re not a full-on replacement for traditional journalism.

Craig and I agree that Murdoc makes great points, and Craig notes further that he wishes Murdoc would have concluded stronger, reasserting the importance of MilBlogs. I think we probably agree for the most part there, too.

Regardless, Col. Hunt challenged the panel and evoked at times heated discussion. What he was getting at, in pure Hunt fashion, cannot be overlooked. Murdoc does well to point that out.

Colonel Hunt is a Marine’s Marine, and might well eat tree bark and kittens. Get over it. But what was he trying to drive towards (or stick our noses into) while we were busy patting ourselves on the back, as Murdoc aptly notes?

Pro Cuba/Venezuela Rally Planning Meeting

On my Strategic Outlook Institute blog (in the before-time), I published a piece on a pro Cuba/Venezuela march to be conducted in D.C. on May 20th. Somebody at the University of Pittsburgh had posted many flyers conspicuously, inviting anyone interested to a planning meeting on April 27th. I surreptitiously observed the planning meeting that happened last night. Here’s what I found.

These kids are harmless. There were six of them - three men and three women. They were individually unremarkable, probably not in the “popular” circles at their high schools, continuing this trend into college. I was never a fan of those circles myself, by the way. However, these youth are “socialists” only because it is a group they can relate to and be accepted whole-heartedly into. I will boldly state - we need kids like these, but please, allow me to explain.

The best lessons are ones learned first hand. How much do you really learn from a lecture? These kids are undoubtedly intelligent, but idealists. The freedoms that support their right to protest for a system that would not give them that freedom seems self explanatory. Yet it is not. Their only argument in support of socialism and Stalinist communism is that if they were under that utopian system, then there would be no need to protest. Reality says that no one ever agrees 100% with another. Without the right to protest, how could the chosen government understand what policies or programs are not acceptable to the people?

Sidenote: They used the Cartman (South Park) school of thought regarding getting people to attend the meeting - “free punch and pie.” Although the pie was lacking, there were jugs of some beverage available for the attendees.

This group from the University of Pittsburgh will learn that lesson at some point in life. They will become born-again capitalists as they see the strength in the economic system and that a democratic government gave the economy the foundation from which to thrive. I understand that socialism is an economic system and communism is a political system, but this group is going to D.C. on May 20th to march in support of Venezuela and Cuba - they have chosen politics. The head of the planning committee, Ryan on the flyer, is also as I’ve discovered, is the leader of the Young Socialists. So the two are intertwined in this case.

The rights to free speech and to assemble are critical for our democracy to remain strong. This group is a testament to the strength of our system of liberties. They will not change anything with their protest, but they will also not be arrested for protesting peacefully or harassed in any way. Welcome to the free and protected society that you are not fully supporting. But if you feel there is an injustice, let your voice be heard!

And as the Geico commercial points out (from a caveman’s perspective) - “Next time, do a little research.” Venezuela has been hijacked by Hugo Chavez under the guise of a better life. He has taken power, limited democracy, and removed freedoms from the people. He is in power to stay. The people are gaining a new level of equality - they are all becoming equally poor, but above the poverty line (for Venezuela). That is the real-world result of Stalinist communism. Visit what was East Germany, go to Russia and get outside of Moscow - what you’ll see is gray. Gray buildings and seemingly lifeless people. More than 15 years after the fall of Communism in Russia, they are still trying to dig themselves out of the gray lives that were created for them. Go to Cuba - you’ll see much of the same.

This socialist students group needs to search for the truth. The U.S. has a responsibility to the world to keep everything working smoothly. If Venezuela halts oil sales to the U.S., it would affect the entire world. Yes, we like our lifestyles, but the rest of the world likes theirs, too. This group will eventually learn the right lessons the hard way and they will be harshly welcomed into the real world. We need these kids - they will be our strongest advocates once they have learned the truth.

April 26, 2006

Kinder, Gentler Marines

Between Craig’s Chernobyl Remembered and my own Stolen Honor Reclaimed, has anyone ever heard of more Marines crying? I mean really, this is not good for our image or testosterone levels, though former President George H. W. Bush may be proud of the kinder, gentler Marines.

So long as no one tells Captain B or Taco, I think we’ll be alright. B’s a man’s man and Taco is like his alter ego. Taco lacks for nothing manly, mind you. But, after sitting with them for lunch Saturday, it occurred to me that these two friends have different approaches to problem solving. Captain B’s likely to unscrew your head while Taco is likely to negotiate a ‘fair’ settlement (Marine style of course), both arriving at the same ultimate final resolution.

I think it’s time to refocus on Iran ASAP. All of this commentary is devastating to our image and my own ego. I prefer to keep the knuckle-dragging illiterate persona astutely noted by John of OpFor. This introspective sensitivity nonsense just has to stop.

United 93 Follow-Up

Steve posted on this a week ago, but as more reviews come out, I’d like to offer an update from Michael Smerconish on his review of the movie.

United 93 is a must. And nothing you hear or read about it, including this, will fully prepare you for the experience. Go see this movie. It’s two hours that will strengthen our constitution as a nation at any crossroads that we may confront in the war on terror. And exactly what we all need to watch on a regular basis to stay focused on eradicating those who threaten our freedom.

I was in D.C., not far from the Pentagon on 9/11 - as nearly all of you, I remember exactly where I was and exactly what I was doing when reports of the attack came. We were quickly ushered out of work - to minimize the profile of congregated military personnel at vulnerable facilities. On the way home, that fateful day, I not only saw the oily smoke rising from the Pentagon, and smelled the burning of jet fuel, an unmistakable odor to a Marine aviation Weapons and Tactics Instructor. There was an eery silence as no aircraft flew overhead - strange for the nation’s capitol. I retired after Afghanistan was liberated from evil and moved to the eastern suburbs of Pittsburgh, not far from Shanksville.

In arguably the most politically charged environment in our nation’s history, he made a movie about a historical event in a manner devoid of politics. This is not a movie for only red or blue state America, nor a picture for either Fox News or CNN viewers, but for all Americans. That is not to say that issues of ineptitude or un-preparedness are swept under the rug. While the movie does not point fingers, it documents plenty of ill-equipped government actors and an abundance of chaos. United 93 is incredibly well filmed and scored. The jerky nature of the footage befits the events, and the sound that accompanies the imagery is just right. The reality that comes from the replica aircraft and actual locations used in filming is simply awesome.

The United 93 memorial has had some rocky times, but is finally gelling into something that America will be proud to stand and say that this is where America first fought back in the War on Terror. This is your average American, gave his life for the lives of others - the highest honor that one can bestow upon another. This is not from the Marine Corps handbook, but from the bible (Greater love has no one than this, that one lay down his life for his friends. - John 15:13).

This is a movie where we all know the ending. And yet, the climax is still a suspenseful moment. Nothing can prepare you for actually seeing the events… Go watch this weekend, while a portion of your admission will go to the Flight 93 memorial in Shanksville. And prepare for an unusual movie experience. In my case it was a surreal moment when I realized that in my theatre was a local woman who bears the emotional scars of what happened that day. Ellen Saracini, the widow of UA Flight 175 pilot Victor Saracini, whose flight was referenced time and again by the traffic controllers in United 93, screened the movie the same night as me.

This is a must-see. Perspective must be maintained. Take pride in your America and understand clearly that the freedoms we enjoy were bought by the sacrifices of others.

Craig Martelle Joins ThreatsWatch

Please welcome the newest member to ThreatsWatch, Craig Martelle. Craig comes to ThreatsWatch from The Strategic Outlook Institute and is a retired Marine Corps intel officer (and a mustang, which is just how we like our officers).

Craig’s career has had quite an interesting path. After 7 months at the Air Force Academy, the high school valedictorian left because he says he “was not there for the right reasons.” Still in his AFA uniform, Craig wasted no time enlisting in the Marine Corps, where he attended the Defense Language Institute to learn Russian. As a Russian linguist, he was selected for the Marine Enlisted Commission Education Program and later graduated Phi Beta Kappa, Summa Cum Laude from the University of Arizona with a BA in Russian Language in 1990.

In 2002, Craig retired as a Major in Military Intelligence and served tours in Russia at the US Embassy supporting arms control, in Japan and Korea as an intelligence officer and three years at CENTCOM working Middle East issues.

Upon retirement, Craig took a management post at the Transportation Security Administration focusing on airport screening operations. He left the TSA in 2005 and has been a law student at William Howard Taft since.

Readers will surely appreciate the rich background, broad experience and intelligent, reasoned approach to issues and events that Craig Martelle will bring to the table. We find those qualities to be self-evident in his work and believe his analytical skills to be superb.

His first ‘official’ offering at ThreatsWatch, PrincipalAnalysis: Constitutionally Protected Blogging, takes a look at the legal aspects of blogging and at the responsibility that must be embraced by ‘bloggers and policy analysts’ if credibility is to be established and maintained. While somewhat outside the traditional scope of ThreatsWatch content, on the heels of the MilBlog Conference 2006 and considering the important issues confronted there, it is quite pertinent and timely considering ThreatsWatch’s primary medium.

Craig’s coverage at ThreatsWatch will have a primary focus on Russia and the former Soviet Republics, but will certainly not be limited to them. Readers can expect him to provide contextualized news coverage and analysis on other areas as well.

Craig shares our vision, core values, and belief in the ThreatsWatch mission. We proudly welcome him as a teammate and hope you will too.

April 25, 2006

Is the Press Covering Iraq On the Cheap?

Bruce Kesler of Democracy Project thinks so, and has a timely article published by Editor & Publisher. Just days after the MilBlog Conference 2006, the Vietnam veteran offers Is the Press Covering Iraq On the Cheap?

“I hope we keep out of the post-Vietnam thing that the press lost the war,” Joe Galloway, soon to retire military editor for Knight Ridder, recently told me in an interview. But discrepancies in what’s reported, or an imbalance, are daily highlighted by military bloggers in Iraq and conservative commentators here at home.

If truth is journalism’s goal, cheapness within journalism undermines it. Embedded reporter Paul McLeary wrote in Columbia Journalism Review not long ago, “In Iraq, the untold stories pile up, one by one by one,” because “there just aren’t enough of them [journalists] to give the conflict its due.”

Galloway also notes a resistance toward journalists ‘unfriendly’ to the military and the war, something military officials have routinely denied. In fact, when the question has arisen regarding journalists’ lack of embedding outside the ‘Thin Green Line’ of Baghdad, this reasoning has never been offered.

Rather, most often either increased danger or costs associated with increased numbers of reporters is cited (apparently suggesting that the media companies cannot function with smaller numbers of journalists within Baghdad and would thus have to increase numbers to directly embed).

For what it’s worth, at a 5April06 Reuters event in New York City called Iraq: Is the media telling the real story?, I asked the esteemed panel directly about the lack of embedding outside the ‘Thin Green Line’, suggesting it is far safer to be among armed Marines and soldiers in the field rather than on the streets amidst frequent and unpredictable car bombings in Baghdad.

Panelists from that event who may be reading this, you may remember the question. It was ignored and went unanswered. Feel free to chime in any time.

The event barely touched upon the self-titled theme, though some finally took it on. But for the most part it was a self-congratulatory media event praising their collective performances under the duress of war.

Forgive a Marine for being rather unimpressed.

Now, go finish reading Bruce Kesler’s article.

Archie and Jughead, U.S. Envoys

We’re beginning to get caught up at ThreatsWatch from a ‘72’ that turned into a ‘96’ by pure medical (or dental) necessity. Thanks go to John Batchelor for the text of the normally firewalled text and the WSJ article, Archie and Jughead, U.S. Envoys. I found it interesting enough to share in the sprint to become current in other developments.

Zealots do not laugh. The closest they come is to grin while they stand in profile staring into the distance. Laughter undermines zealotry. Hitler smiled early on, but rarely after he became Der Fuhrer. Ayatollah Khomeini smiled, but since he never made eye contact with his audience, his sinister smiles alluded to a wisdom too great to be shared with mere disciples. Laughter could unhinge a person, loosening him into defiance against submission. It’s no wonder why all things stern — flags, weapons, uniforms and street marches — abound in a zealot’s universe. He may promote seriousness as prime virtue, but to the perpetuation of his rule it is dire necessity.

This is why the impending release of Archie Comics in the Arab world is quite revolutionary, albeit the only revolution Archie Andrews has ever known is that of a lovely girl’s hips. By 2007, Archie and friends will be available in Arabic. ….

We’ll be back to normal visible operations by sunrise, including an exciting announcement that ThreatsWatch readers will definitely appreciate.

April 23, 2006

A 72 for ThreatsWatch

The Army calls it a ‘Three Day Pass’. The Marines call it a ‘72’. Regardless…

Apologies to readers for 3 days of radio silence. The past 72 hours have been away from a PC. Participation in and travel to and from the MilBlog Conference 2006 in Washington, DC consumed most of it. A long procrastinated root canal reared its ugly head in waves Saturday, got progressively more acute, and I could not stay past the early afternoon, unfortunately. No final session and no pub crawl…though at times I did feel like crawling.

The experience of the MilBlog Conference 2006 was simply outstanding. The pleasure of meeting and speaking to so many people you have read and respected for several years cannot be overstated. More on that later.

There are many events and developments to catch up on and attempt to put into proper context. That process will begin shortly.

In the meantime, follow a direct order from Sgt. Hook and Meet the Persians.