The unending panting over a claimed missile test we know nothing about is frustrating on many levels. Consider the following headline:

• CBS News: Iran’s Nuke Test Success Sparks Worry

This story, without further aid from the Iranians, has now progressed from a radar-evading rocket test to a stealth missile test to a MIRV ICBM test to, ultimately a ‘Nuke Test’.

This is getting out of hand.

From CBS’ own text:

State Department deputy spokesman Adam Ereli said he had no technical details on the test firing, but “I think it demonstrates that Iran has a very active and aggressive military program under way.”

Read that again:

Adam Ereli said he had no technical details on the test firing…

From this, the headline leads with “Iran’s Nuke Test”?

Enough.

We at ThreatsWatch have consistently been waving the Red Flag on Iran since we began just four short months ago. There is enough information available to make the case against the Iranian regime without the need to manufacture a story or even to embellish one.

There is absolutely no need for this panicked panting over phantom Iranian MIRV’s they can’t even properly arm to justify confronting the Epicenter of Terrorism that the Iranian mullah regime is. In fact, it is a gross disservice to those who work endless hours burning midnight oil, paid or on their own dime, to communicate the true nature of the Iranian regime’s threat – past, present and future.

Just to name a few:

• 1983 Marine barracks bombing, Beirut
• 1983 US Embassy Bombing, Beirut
• 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing, Argentina
• 1996 Khobar Towers
• 2002 Karine-A Iranian Arms Shipment to Gaza Strip

That’s hardly even a beginning. Needless to say, if one needs a phantom MIRV ICBM to be compelled to take note, then close enough attention is simply not being paid. This should be corrected.

Note: We missed EagleSpeak on the same subject earlier. You should not. We agree: “Let’s see the footage.”

By Steve Schippert at 10:04 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Commentary in Investor’s Business Daily nails the issue with an effective economy of words. From Tackling Tehran:

The U.N.’s toothless response to Iran’s defiance on nuclear weapons tells Iran it can do what it wants with no consequences. Once again, the U.S. is in the lonely position of telling a rogue state “no.”

The rest of the commentary is correct justification for that position, but the opening paragraph nails it without the need of further elaboration.

By Steve Schippert at 11:43 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (1)

In the first week of June, the US military will test a 700-ton explosive charge in a mine in another bunker-busting weapons development test, this one called ‘Divine Strake’.

“I don’t want to sound glib here but it is the first time in Nevada that you’ll see a mushroom cloud over Las Vegas since we stopped testing nuclear weapons,” said James Tegnelia, head of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency.

Tegnelia said the test was part of a US effort to develop weapons capable of destroying deeply buried bunkers housing nuclear, chemical or biological weapons.

“We have several very large penetrators we’re developing,” he told defense reporters.

“We also have — are you ready for this - a 700-tonne explosively formed charge that we’re going to be putting in a tunnel in Nevada,” he said.

The Russians have been notified, and they are in negotiations with…

Well, the Nevada desert looks a lot like this.

By Steve Schippert at 12:52 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Earlier in the week, it was reported that Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil was abducted, beaten and dumped on the side of the road outside Islamabad. The Acorn applies logic to determine that, simply by his survival, it was a message sent.

It is not hard to guess at who those attackers were. Debt collecters they certainly were not. Rival jihadis would not stop at simply knocking him out. That leaves the ISI — who may just have wanted to teach an uppity jihadi leader a lesson on who is boss.

And who is the Jihadi of the Week, Maulana Fazalur Rehman Khalil? None other than the jihadi who apparently ran the terrorist training camp attended by Umer Hayat of Lodi, California, infamy.

Interestingly, Maulana Fazalur Rehman, who according to Umer Hayat runs the Rawalpindi religious school, happens to be the opposition leader in the National Assembly of Pakistan besides being the head of a religio-political party, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI). However, well-informed government sources claimed the Rawalpindi training camp was being run by Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil, leader of a leading Pakistani jehadi outfit, Harkatul Mujahideen (HuM) and not by Maulana Fazalur Rehman. The HuM leader, Maulana Khalil has been closely aligned to Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency, the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI), since the days of the Afghan jehad and had been siding with the Taliban against the Northern Alliance troops even after the US-led Allied Forces attacked Afghanistan in October 2001, following the 9/11 terror attacks.

By Steve Schippert at 12:21 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The IAEA has no enforcement mechanism. While the IAEA has no teeth, the Security Council, at least at this point, also refuses to bark.

As noted earlier, the agreement ultimately reached by the Permanent Five members of the United Nations Security Council is one of no consequences (Permanent Five Agree on Iran: No Consequences, Please). The language is diluted sufficiently to the point of being wholly non-binding in nature. Iran’s dossier will be effectively kicked back to the IAEA for 30 days of Iranian tapdancing.

Vital Perspective has obtained the text of the seven-point statement that has reportedly been agreed to by the P-5 and will be formally voted on by the full Security Council later this week and presumably approved.

Of the eight points, items of immediate note:

3. The Security Council also notes with serious concern that the Director General’s report of 27 February 2006 (GOV/2006/15) list a number of outstanding issues and concerns, including topics which could have a military nuclear dimension, and that the IAEA is unable to conclude that there are no undeclared nuclear materials or activities in Iran.

See: InBrief: ‘Green Salt Project’: Iran Admits Another Nuclear Deception

5. The Security Council calls upon Iran to take the steps required by the IAEA Board of Governors, notably in the first operative paragraph of its resolution GOV/2006/14, which are essential to build confidence in the exclusively peaceful purpose of its nuclear programme and to resolve outstanding questions, and underlines, in this regard, the particular importance of re-establishing full and sustained suspension of all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development, to be verified by the IAEA.

See: InBrief: Iran Orders IAEA Cameras Out

7. The Security Council strongly supports the role of the IAEA Board of Governors and commends and encourages the Director General of the IAEA and its Secretariat for their ongoing professional and impartial efforts to resolve outstanding issues in Iran, and underlines the necessity of the IAEA continuing its work to clarify all outstanding issues relating to Iran’s nuclear programme.

8. The Security Council requests in 30 days a report from the Director General of the IAEA on the process of Iranian compliance with the steps required by the IAEA Board, to the IAEA Board of Governors and in parallel to the Security Council for its consideration.

See also as referenced: IAEA Resolution - GOV/2006/14

The statement points out the right issues, but the language has been watered down and carries no weight in its current form. Simply put, after three years of the IAEA investigating the Iranian nuclear program with regular deception revealed and secretive programs uncovered, there remains not a single consequence. All the while, Iran chugs forward undeterred.

If you are keeping score, it’s another in a string of Iranian victories.

By Steve Schippert at 9:16 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Has anyone noticed?

In early March, to take one recent example, several vehicles crossed from Iranian Kurdistan into Iraqi Kurdistan. The Iraqis stopped them. There was a firefight. The leader of the intruding group was captured and is now in prison, held by one of the Kurdish factions. The Kurds say that the vehicles contained poison gas, which they have in their possession. They say they informed the Turks, who said they did not want to know anything about it (the Turks don’t want anything to do with the Kurds, period, and they shrink from confrontation with the mullahs).

The Kurds holding this man say that he confessed to working for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Apparently they have his confession. They say they are willing to make him available to U.S. military personnel. But the Pentagon, which has all this information, has not pursued the matter. This is just one of many cases in which the Iranians believe they see the Americans running away from confrontation.

Read on.

By Steve Schippert at 10:03 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

An interesting post today at RedState on ‘al-Qaeda’s Next Jihad’.

Within days, al-Qaeda in Iraq ceased posting messages on the Internet. It was thought that Zarqawi would head the new council however, the local jihadi became confused, when on Jan. 20, the council named its new leader, Abdullah Rashid al-Baghdadi.

With the stage one seemingly under way, the expulsion of the United States from Iraq, and stage two also being put into place, that being establishing Iraqis in the government, including al-Baghdadi, it was time to initiate stage three.

More on this later, as time is very limitted today. In the mean time, be sure to read the first comment as well, Gordon Taylor’s addendum.

By Steve Schippert at 12:54 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

With more and more documents being made public by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, more and more people are combing over them. The value in the number are the varying skill sets and backgrounds. Indeed, one with a limited professional background offers value often purely in the form of the absence of biases, which should not be underestimated when an objective review is a goal.

But this also opens the possibility of inaccuracies and deficiencies. One such weakness is presented clearly by John Hinderaker of Powerline with What Does It Prove? Nothing, Yet, as he provides two vastly differing translations of an Iraqi intelligence document to illustrate a weakness.

Key section of Translation #1:

• 1. On 8/21/2002, the undertaking of an American delegation visiting the district of Afshariyya to visit the HQ of the Iraqi Communist Party to (the district of) Shaqlawa. A representative of the Communist Party urged that the Iraqi Government be prepared to conceal elements (‘anasir) of the organization al-Qa’ida in the district of Salman Pak, in addition to elements of the Turkish Workers’ Party and the Mujahidin Khalq Iraniyya, and that they are studying the use of chemical weapons. Iraq will (use them?) in case a military strike is directed toward them.

Same key section of Translation #2:

• 1. On 7/21/2002 an American delegation visited the _______ area headquarters of the Iraqi Communist Party in Shaqlauah. A representative of the Communist Party accused the Iraqi government of hiding elements of the organization of Al-Qaeda in the region of Salman Pak, plus elements of the Turkish Workers Party and the Iranian Mujahideen Khalq and that they were studying the use of chemical weapons and whether Iraq will use them in case of ___________________.

The difference between ‘urged’ and ‘accused’ can not be more significant.

Especially when dealing with translations, but also when dealing with hyper-focused individual pieces of data potentially without context, the ‘Army of Davids’ must exercise restraint and patience to avoid a reactionary error. Discipline is in high demand.

Those who fail in exercising discipline (by seeking a second translation or a second, third and fourth knowledgeable opinion on seemingly damning data) will contribute greatly to cheapening the effort to understand the facts as they exist(ed).

If one is looking to the documents to prove or disprove a position or perception, objectivity is lost and analysis seriously weakened. This is the challenge before the foot soldiers in this ‘Army of Davids’.

In a private conversation early on in the document release process, Marvin Hutchens made perhaps the most astute observation on this yet when he said, “I think that one of the problems of the ‘Army of Davids’ is that everyone is running to find something. Sometimes there is nothing.”

By Steve Schippert at 1:06 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

In full agreeance with Jack Kelly, this most certainly may be the best Charles Krauthammer has ever written. He opens by laying down the history that no nuclear power, not even Stalin’s agressive Soviet Union, used nuclear weapons since their first and only combat use in World War II.

But that’s the point. We’re now at the dawn of an era in which an extreme and fanatical religious ideology, undeterred by the usual calculations of prudence and self-preservation, is wielding state power and will soon be wielding nuclear power.

We have difficulty understanding the mentality of Iran’s newest rulers. Then again, we don’t understand the mentality of the men who flew into the World Trade Center or the mobs in Damascus and Tehran who chant “Death to America”—and Denmark(!)—and embrace the glory and romance of martyrdom.

This atavistic love of blood and death and, indeed, self-immolation in the name of God may not be new—medieval Europe had an abundance of millennial Christian sects—but until now it has never had the means to carry out its apocalyptic ends.

He clearly Understands Ahmadinejad. Too few do…or perhaps want to admit that they do.

By Steve Schippert at 5:02 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Curiously, in the ‘March For Free Expression’ demonstration intended in part to show solidarity with Denmark, the London police were out in force, overtly photographing participants (described as ‘a very intimidating presence’) and demanding that Danish and American flags be brought down. Michael Totten asks, ”What free expression?” He offers photographs and links to other on-site coverage in a follow-up, London Policing.

The display of foreign flags did not seem to be of much concern during the May 2004 Al-Nakba Demonstration in London.

Perhaps the standard is equally applied since the 2005 London bombings. To be fair to the London authorities, they did videotape the London Muhammed cartoon protesters, yet their signs with “Massacre those who insult Islam” and “Europe you will pay, your 9/11 will come” were not demanded taken down.

But the Danish flag is?

By Steve Schippert at 4:30 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

In an appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press, Condoleezza Rice said that she sees value in the recently released documents obtained during the invasion of Iraq. Stephen Hayes notes that this contradicts claims from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

“We’re going to find some important and surprising things in these documents,” Rice said.

Hayes uses various media sources’ analysis of some of the documents in question to illustrate how the Russians gave Hussein information on the Coalition invasion and advance toward Baghdad.

Rice also addressed revelations, important but not surprising, that former Russian ambassador to Iraq, Vladimir Teterenko, passed the U.S. war plan to Iraq shortly before the war began. The charges, based largely on two Iraqi documents captured in postwar Iraq, came in a report issued by the Joint Forces Command in Norfolk, Virginia, and released by the Pentagon late last week. Rice said she is not in a position to confirm or deny the claims but vowed to take “a hard look at the reports” of Russian betrayal.

Required Mopnday reading.

By Steve Schippert at 10:07 AM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

al-Iraqiya TV quickly aired images of the dead inside the al-Moustafa mosque. All of the dead appear to have been either Mahdi Army fighters or persons in the mosque killed in the crossfire. Zeyad shares a translation of part of what he saw on Iraqi television at Healing Iraq. al-Iraqiya and al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army appear quite chummy. The al-Iraqiya cameraman refers to the Madhi Army dead as “our guys”.

Someone in the background was asking the cameraman to film grenades lying around the corpses, to which the cameraman responded: “I can’t show our guys’ grenades.”

“No, these are American grenades,” the man in the background explained.

“Oh, okay I’ll film them.”

Al-Iraqiya TV was very critical of the attack, and is describing those killed as martyrs.

Unexploded American or American-supplied Iraqi ordnance left at the scene? A very curious detail, to say the least.

By Steve Schippert at 4:10 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

At current, it is being reported that possibly more than 20 have been killed after US and Iraqi troops opened fire at the al-Moustafa mosque in Baghdad.

The US and Iraqi military sources are not saying much yet about the incident, but from piecing together a few television reports and limited info from the web, it appears that US and Iraqi troops went to the Sadr City Shi’ite mosque to arrest the imam. Members of al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army resisted and opened fire. When the firing stopped, about 20 were dead. The US and Iraqi forces have yet to announce any casualties.

Muqtada al-Sadr’s people are claiming that the attack was unprovoked and are putting out numerous releases to that effect already. al-Sadr’s Najaf home was nearly struck by a mortar a few hours before the Baghdad incident.

The arrest of an Imam is significant, and likely the most important detail not yet reported is why the Imam was under arrest.

It is worthy of note that in September of 2005, an Imam of that mosque was shot and killed by gunmen.

UPDATE: Security Watchtower points out a new DoD release that clarifies that no mosque was raided and that the operation was conducted by Iraqi troops, killed 16, captured 15, freed a hostage and destroyed explosives caches.

Perhaps Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari would like to take back his open condemnation of the ‘attacks’ on Iraqis?

By Steve Schippert at 3:09 PM | Permalink | Feedback (2) | Referenced By (0)

Zeyad describes a very difficult day in Baghdad with Lynchings and Holy Wars from Healing Iraq.

Today it was all out war in Baghdad.

Please don’t ask me whether I believe Iraq is on the verge of civil war yet or not. I have never experienced a civil war before, only regular ones. All I see is that both sides are engaged in tit-for-tat lynchings and summary executions. I see governmental forces openly taking sides or stepping aside. I see an occupation force that is clueless about what is going on in the country. I see politicians that distrust each other and continue to flame the situation for their own personal interests. I see Islamic clerics delivering fiery sermons against each other, then smile and hug each other at the end of the day in staged PR stunts. I see the country breaking into pieces. The frontlines between different districts of Baghdad are already clearly demarked and ready for the battle. I was stopped in my own neighbourhood yesterday by a watch team and questioned where I live and what I was doing in that area. I see other people curiously staring in each other’s faces on the street. I see hundreds of people disappearing in the middle of the night and their corpses surfacing next day with electric drill holes in them. I see people blown up to smithereens because a brainwashed virgin seeker targeted a crowded market or cafe. I see all that and more.

Don’t you dare chastise me for writing about what I see in my country.

Read his entire post.

By Steve Schippert at 3:22 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

This morning, 220 new Iraqi Police recruits left the Ramadi Glass Factory for initial training in Baghdad just as 196 stepped off a bus returning from their successful completion of the same in the constant effort to bring security to their slice of the Sunni Triangle.

Says Capt. Roger Churchwell, “I receive a lot of self satisfaction in helping to rebuild the Iraqi Police Force in Al Anbar. We are securing the future of Ramadi and making history at the same time. We currently have over 900 Iraqi Policemen going through the IP Training Academies in Baghdad and Jordon, and this group will take us over 1,100. A few months ago achieving these numbers was just a dream, and the dream has become reality.” As more and more continue to cycle through at increasing rates, the Iraqi Police force continues to grow in both size and experienced effectiveness…as critical in Ramadi as anywhere in Iraq.

The following is the partial text of a press release on the newly graduated Ramadi IP’s return home to Ramadi. It is proof once again that, while often difficult, there is more to a day in Iraq than IED’s and suicide attacks.

RAMADI, Iraq – “We are the future of Iraq, each and everyone of us. We believe in our cause. The conditions we are living in now; with the insurgency and terrorist around us, is no way to live life. We will make a difference for our sons and daughters,” said a newly appointed Iraqi Policeman, as he stepped off the bus at the Ramadi Glass Factory, on the morning of March 24, 2006. […]

“There is no difference between Sunni and Shia, we are all Iraqis. One thing we learned at the police academy is that we must work as one family to win against the insurgency,” said a police graduate.

In the coming days, these IP graduates will be measured for their uniforms and will receive the following: work boots, individual body armor, and weapons. Additionally, they will receive additional training designed to introduce them to patrolling the neighborhoods of Ramadi.

“When the buses pulled in this morning I walked up to the first bus, opened the bus door and welcomed home the Sons of Al Anbar. To me, opening that bus door signified opening the door to their futures, and a new start for the Iraqi Police to create a stable and secure environment for their fellow citizens of Iraq,” said Capt. Roger Churchwell, a resident of Kansas City, and the Iraqi Police Liaison for the 2/28 BCT.

By Steve Schippert at 4:55 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (1)

Charles Krauthammer is on point again.

This whole debate about civil war is surreal. What is the insurgency if not a war supported by one (minority) part of Iraqi society fighting to prevent the birth of the new Iraqi state supported by another (majority) part of Iraqi society?

By definition that is civil war, and there’s nothing new about it. As I noted here in November 2004: “People keep warning about the danger of civil war. This is absurd. There already is a civil war. It is raging before our eyes. Problem is, only one side” — the Sunni insurgency — “is fighting it.”

Indeed, until very recently that has been the case: ex-Baathist insurgents (aided by the foreign jihadists) fighting on one side, with the United States fighting back in defense of a new Iraq dominated by Shiites and Kurds.

Now all of a sudden everyone is shocked to find Iraqis going after Iraqis. But is it not our entire counterinsurgency strategy to get Iraqis who believe in the new Iraq to fight Iraqis who want to restore Baathism or impose Taliban-like rule? Does not everyone who wishes us well support the strategy of standing up the Iraqis so we can stand down? And does that not mean getting the Iraqis to fight the civil war themselves?

Hence the gradual transfer of war-making responsibility. Hence the decline of American casualties. Hence the rise of Iraqi casualties.

He continues and notes that what we don’t need are the likes of al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army determining that they will be the deciding factor as well as the problems experienced within some of the Iraqi Police units. As he says, a decisive Sunni shift will only occur with a military stick and a political carrot.

By Steve Schippert at 4:50 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Two interesting subjects are discussed briefly at American Future. In looking back at the geopolitical landscape wrought by the World Wars of the 20th century, Marc Schulman first wonders, “What Century Is It?”

We now know that the spread of terrorism to our shores and to the countries of Western Europe is connected to the Balkan wars of the 1990s. Having booted the Soviets out of Afghanistan, the unemployed mujahadeen migrated to the Balkans to assist their Muslim brethren in their fight against the Serbs. So, long before 9/11 (and before the 1998 African embassy bombings), Al-Qaeda was in Europe, albeit in southeast Europe. That’s where the Clash of Civilizations began. At the time, we didn’t see it that way: it was in the Balkans (so who really cares), and the aggressors were the Serbs (not exactly the banner-carriers of Western civilization).

What, then, are we witnessing? Nothing less than the unraveling of the world created by the Treaty of Versailles. …

In Moving Forward, Dr. Demarche looks back at the not-so-distant past with deep regret at how the Dubai Ports World situation was (mis)handled.

The idea that any other foreign interest should not be involved in managing our infrastructure is probably the correct one (setting aside the fact that we currently lack the ability to manage our own ports). Our handling of this issue, however, was childish and dangerous. We singled out Dubai from among the many nations managing our ports because it is an Arab nation, plain and simple. What message do you think the average citizen on the “Arab street” took away from this? The fact that no rational voice arose from either side of the political aisle calling for a calm appraisal of the situation does not bode well for the future relationship between the United States and the Arab world. While I am well aware that Dubai is not a model of democracy or freedom, it is far and away one of the most liberal countries in the region, and our military presence in the Middle East depends in large part on our relationship with the government of the emirate. …

American Future is an especially apt name today. How can you possibly know where you’re going if you’ve know idea where you have been?

By Steve Schippert at 11:29 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

At a time when the Palestinian Economy needs Israel more than ever, it is on a path to get less and less on a collision course with economic abstinance on the part of Israeli employers. brought on primarily through the uncompromising boldness of a governing Hamas, Elizabeth Young brings this economic reality into clear view with Palestinian Economic Dependence on Israel.

According to the World Bank, in 2000 the Palestinian economy was one of the most remittance-dependent economies in the world, with income outside the territories comprising 21 percent of Palestinian Gross National Income (GNI). While the World Bank has noted that it is important that Palestinians move “away from a dependency on labor exports to Israel to a growth-path based on the export of goods and services to Israel and other countries,” it also acknowledges that in the interim period “a priority must be given to preserving employment.” It estimates that every additional 10,000 Palestinians allowed to work in Israel would generate $120 million for the Palestinian economy and increase the GNI by 2.5 percent. This would have significant effects on the Palestinian economy, where unemployment stands at 22 percent, poverty remains at 43 percent, and 15 percent of the population lives in “deep poverty” such that they cannot meet subsistence needs.

Israel has announced plans to decrease the overall number of foreign workers and to phase out all Palestinian work permits by the end of 2007. Present regulations require all workers to be older than thirty-five and married with children. The current political situation may accelerate this process. Due to heightened concerns of a terror attack during the Jewish holiday of Purim and the Israeli elections, no Palestinian workers have been allowed into Israel since March 11, and Mofaz indicates that this will continue until further notice.

It has always struck as ironic when groups like Hamas would, with a backdrop of a charter that calls for the Jewsih state’s destruction, attack Israel physically and verbally while, nearly in the same breath, also demand that it is their right to travel to and earn wages within their economy.

Perhaps they should choose one or the other. Israel has done just that for them.

By Steve Schippert at 4:36 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

From the House Committee on Appropriations comes word of the failure to fully fund the $75M requested by the administration to assist in broadcast/telecast/satellite communication efforts into the people of Iran.

• Promotion of Democracy in Iran - The committee did not fund the $75 million requested by the Administration for the promotion of democracy in Iran because it was poorly justified. Instead, $56 million was provided through proven, existing programs that will have an immediate, positive impact on the fostering of democratic ideals in Iran.

We aggree with Regime Change Iran and share mutual concern over the future of not only the above bill, but the sincerity of peaceful efforts to empower the people via information and peacefully attempt to change the current regime.

The $75M was not enough and, as it was, decades late in the game. To see Congress slash the belated efforts by nearly one-third out of the gate, in light of the current urgency, borders on disconcerting.

By Steve Schippert at 1:55 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

A ThreatsWatch reader and blogger has relocated from the East Coast to San Antonio, Texas and has undertaken covering US Border Security and the situation he is witnessing from his new vantage point. Recently, he took a look at the violence in Nuevo Loredo, Mexico, a city up against the US-Mexico border that is the scene of a major drug cartel turf battle that routinely spills north of the border. With that as a backdrop, the US Border Patrol Tactical Unit gets a look. His post Border Security - BORTAC and the “Zetas” is worth reading, as is closer inspection of HR-4437: The Immigration and Nationality Act Amendment (Library of Congress)

By Steve Schippert at 11:29 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The AP report got wide play: “Madrid train bombings probe finds no al-Qaeda link”. That thinking displays little more than Willful Ignorance and a fundamental (and dangerous) misunderstanding of the threat of global terrorism today.

Most importantly, the March 11 Commission identified former Egyptian army explosives expert Rabei Osman Sayed Ahmed as one of the planners of the Madrid bombings. According to an arrest warrant issued by Spanish judge Juan del Olmo, Ahmed is “a suspected member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad” who “took over leadership of a group of followers of extremist Islamist ideology, supporters of the Jihad and of Osama bin Laden” while living in Madrid. Now on trial in Milan for international terrorism, Ahmed was wiretapped by Italian authorities telling an associate that “The Madrid attack is my project and those who died as martyrs are my dearest friends.”

Given that Egyptian Islamic Jihad is currently headed by al Qaeda second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri, one would think that such a statement from one of its members, to say nothing of various statements from senior Spanish and Italian law enforcement and judicial officials, would settle the issue of al Qaeda involvement in the Madrid train bombings once and for all.

There simply are not a whole lot of dots to connect and, further, that they are not neatly arranged in hierarchical administrative unitary divisions should not be necessary.

By Steve Schippert at 4:01 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (1)

Though the crowd in the square may seem small, wisdom dictates that one consider the environment in Belarus before dismissing anything. Dismissal is precisely what Lukashenko is banking on, both domestically and internationally. Publius Pundit (Robert Mayer) nails it.

The reason there are only a few hundred people left on the square is because those are the most fearless, most adamant demonstrators who have vowed to hold the square. Milinkevich has announced that Saturday, March 25, will be the day when everyone will return to the square. No matter what the immediate result, it will not be a finale, but the beginning of Lukashenko’s end. While the press is pessimistic on the numbers, it doesn’t go into the reasons why this is so. I’m not sure if these writers assume that Belarus is a country where people can freely organize or what, but there are many strategic factors impeding the protest.

Lukashenko has taken up a strategy rather different than that of Ukraine’s Kuchma — where the crowds were actually allowed to gather — or Uzbekistan’s Karimov — where the crowd was massacred. Instead of breaking up the protestors, he is simply blockading them. Riot police were sent to all surrounding neighborhoods to prevent anyone from joining the protest or bring the current demonstrators food. Likewise, if anyone left the protest, they’d be arrested immediately and not allowed to return. Police were also stationed at the train terminals, searching anyone who might have a tent or other materials that would help the opposition. That’s why the protest never grew to more than 7000 at time — nobody was allowed to join!

However, something can be said about the number of people trying to join…

Bingo. Now…go finish reading.

By Steve Schippert at 3:36 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Syrian poet Adonis, in an interview with Dubai TV, addresses democracy and the Arab people. Watch the video or read the transcript - both available at MEMRI. Nouri offers an excellent commentary on the interview (via Terrorism Unveiled).

Adonis, Ali Ahmad Sa’id, is asked of his view of the “Greater Middle East” plan. In his response, he states that if “Arabs are so inept that they cannot be democratic by themselves, they can never be democratic through the intervention of others.” And goes on to state that the a precondition of that is the re-evaluation of religion so that it becomes “a personal and spiritual experience.” He also lays challenge to the Arab fear of personal freedom and to address Arab extinction - “We have become extinct. We have the quantity. We have the masses of people, but a people becomes extinct when it no longer has a creative capacity, and the capacity to change its world.”

And then the heart of the intellectual crisis behind the Arabs’ predicament - “The Muslims today - forgive me for saying this - with their accepted interpretation [of the religious text], are the first to destroy Islam, whereas those who criticize the Muslims - the non-believers, the infidels, as they call them - are the ones who perceive in Islam the vitality that could adapt it to life. These infidels serve Islam better than the believers.”

In the summer of 2004, when Shibley Telhami wrote in the LA Times about the “Growing Muslim Identity” (no longer available at the LATimes site but found here), it was apparent to me that the problem is not Muslims who identified more with their faith than their nationality or ethnicity. From my viewpoint, it was that so much of what it is to be Arab has become the what it is to be a Muslim.

As Adonis makes clear, being a Muslim should be a personal choice and further, it should not in any way limit the believer’s ability to support a free society - even if that society permits (or encourages) others live outside the bounds of his faith. Democracy in the Palestinian Territories or in Iraq is a good thing. Yet if it is abused to create a religious state or to subjugate those of another (or no) faith - it should be clear that the principles behind successful democratic societies are not yet shared by those people. And that must be addressed from within.

Muslims, not Arabs, must be at the forefront of rejecting intolerance in the name of their faith. They must find or reclaim the values and principles of their religion and, when necessary, build upon them in defense of personal responsibility before their god.

Being more Arab than Muslim didn’t happen overnight. And the fall and rebirth of an Arab society of Muslims and non-Muslims will not be delivered at the hands of a foreign nation. But as Nouri notes, our prompting, encouragement and support of those who’ve begun the long journey will serve a purpose. Even if it is only to spur the discussion.

By Marvin Hutchens at 1:58 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

ThreatsWatch’s Dan Darling has written Republic of Fear, published online by The Weekly Standard. He looks at some of the Iraqi documents recently released by DOCEX, including one ordering the use of Kuwaiti prisoners as human shields against US bombing and another drawing up plans for chemical attacks on the Kurds.

By Steve Schippert at 11:19 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

There are many reasons Iraq is not Vietnam, as has been chronicled in many places. Yet, the Vietnam parallels are tirelessly strewn about. In fact, the dreaded Vietnam-esque ‘quagmire’ meme breathed its first breath of life before the first American boot even hit soil in Afghanistan.

Yet, for those charged with prosecuting and winning the conflict of our time, they do so beyond the seemingly disinterested cameras and microphones. Such is the unglorious nature of warfighters, bound only by a sense of duty to secure victory from the jaws of perception. With regard to incessant Vietnam comparisons, they choose to draw perpendiculars when appropriate rather than accept parallels when self-defeating.

Greg Jaffe writes of one such group of men in The Wall Street Journal, and one in particular: The U.S. Army’s LTC John Nagl.

The embrace of these Vietnam histories reflects an emerging consensus in the Army that in order to move forward in Iraq, it must better understand the mistakes of Vietnam.

In the past, it was commonly held in military circles that the Army failed in Vietnam because civilian leaders forced it to fight a limited war instead of the all-out assault it longed to wage. That belief helped shape the doctrine espoused in the 1980s by Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Colin Powell. They argued that the military should fight only wars in which it could apply quick, overwhelming force to destroy the enemy.

The newer analyses of Vietnam are now supplanting that theory — and changing the way the Army fights. The argument that the military must exercise restraint is a central point of the Army’s new counterinsurgency doctrine. The doctrine, which runs about 120 pages and is still in draft form, is a handbook on how to wage guerrilla wars.

It offers Army and Marine Corps officers advice on everything from strategy development to intelligence gathering. Col. Nagl is among the four primary authors of the doctrine. Conrad Crane, a historian at the U.S. Army War College, is overseeing the effort.

LTC Nagl’s book can be found here:

• Learning to Eat Soup with a Knife: Counterinsurgency Lessons from Malaya and Vietnam

…and if he ever had time for a web presence, perhaps he would be well at home here:

• Small Wars Journal

By Steve Schippert at 8:53 PM | Permalink | Feedback (1) | Referenced By (0)

After the heated, passionate and sometimes even disingenuous port security debate last month…Define Irony:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Free trade talks between the United Arab Emirates and the United States should resume at the end of April, UAE Economy Minister Sheikha Lubna al-Qassimi and the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said on Monday.

By Steve Schippert at 6:39 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Julia Gorin introduces the idea of a Balkan stronghold for al-Qaeda to many who may be unsuspecting by writing A Balkan Base for Al Qaeda?

She offers a hard dose of reality, including the following:

But to perpetuate the version of events we were sold from the beginning, all these connections have gone purposefully unmade by our nation’s “journalists,” who were gung-ho supporters of our 1999 offensive against a historical ally and the culmination of our pro-terror policies in 1990s Yugoslavia. How many Americans know that the terrorists who carried out a spate of suicide attacks in Iraq in August 2004 were trained in Bosnia, or that al Qaeda’s top Balkans operative, al-Zawahiri’s brother Mohammed, had a high position with our terrorist KLA “allies”? And who wants to bring up what former Canadian ambassador to Yugoslavia James Bissett has—that in Bosnia we’d fought alongside at least two of the 9/11 hijackers. The American public certainly won’t hear that Bosnian charities have been raided for funding terrorism or that in 1992 Bosnia issued passports to Osama bin Laden and al-Zawahiri. We’ll never know that Bosnia today is the European “one-stop shop” for all the terrorism needs—weapons, money, shelter, documents—of Chechen and Afghani fighters passing through Europe before heading to Iraq. Or that at an al Qaeda training camp in Afghanistan, troops recovered one Albanian Kosovar’s application, reading, “I have Kosovo Liberation Army combat experience against Serb and American forces. …I recommend operations against parks like Disney.”

It is strongly suggested that readers consider visiting Global Terrorism Alert and not leave without attaining viewing this clip and attaining a copy of Kohlmann’s book, al-Qaida’s Jihad in Europe: The Afghan-Bosnian Network.

By Steve Schippert at 2:36 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

The Counterterrorism Blog’s Evan Kohlmann has produced another graphic chart, visually organizing the various Sunni terrorist & insurgent militant groups currently chewing dirt in Iraq.

A new analytical chart is available for download from Globalterroralert.com titled, “Major Sunni Militant Groups in Iraq: March 2006.” The document helps decipher the complex web of groups at the heart of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq and the larger role played by Al-Qaida and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The groups featured in this chart include Zarqawi’s Mujahideen Shura Council (MSC), the Iraqi Factions of Jihad, the Fatihin Army, the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI), the Rashideen Army, the Mujahideen Army, the Ansar al-Sunnah Army, the 1920 Revolution Brigades, the Iraqi Islamic Resistance Front (JAAMI), and more.

It’s an excellent visual. His chart can be downloaded here for viewing (pdf).

By Steve Schippert at 11:09 AM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

Michael Tanji, of one of our favorite new spots, GroupIntel, has written an excellent article for the Daily Standard called An Army of Analysts. It is definitely worth a few minutes of your day to read his words, especially if you have followed or contributed to the analysis and/or translation to the recent releases of Iraqi, al-Qaeda and Guantanamo Bay detainees documents.

And, as Michael says, let’s give credit to the man responsible for all the heavy lifting.

By Steve Schippert at 10:28 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (1)

This is definitely a true test of the newfound Afghani freedom, plain and simple. Call it Afghanistan’s own Dubai Ports World test.

By Steve Schippert at 10:13 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)

At The American Thinker, James Lewis thinks the West would be wise to take the threats tossed Europe’s way by Iran at the UN the other day rather seriously.

The story quotes a “Western diplomat” saying that the message “was difficult to interpret.” Oh, yeah? In recent days Ahmadinejad and his gang have threatened the flow of oil to the West (which means attacking tankers in the Persian Gulf). They have repeatedly threatened to wipe Israel off the map. They have promised “pain and suffering” to the United States. And they have threatened terrorist assaults abroad, just like the ones Ahmadinejad ran as head of the al Qods Brigade in Lebanon, Israel and Iraq. That includes blowing up the US Marine barracks in 1981, sponsoring Hezbollah terror attacks in Israel and Lebanon, and today, making shaped-charge IEDs to blow holes in US tanks in Iraq.

For another interesting look at the divisions becoming more visible in Iran regarding the mullah regime’s nuclear sprint, Marc Schulman highlights an interview with the secretary of the Qom Seminaries Association of Researchers and Instructors. Qom is the holiest city in Iran and its religious leaders speak with authority.

There are those that would prefer Ahmadinejad reeled in. Some, as the above interview shows, believe the race is a dangerous one. Others would have him reeled in because he simply speaks too much of their intent, flying right into the radar rather than above or below it. In either case, it will be interesting to see how successful either camp will be - if at all - in toning him down in the coming weeks & months.

By Steve Schippert at 11:10 PM | Permalink | Feedback (0) | Referenced By (0)