What Motivates Russia?
With Iran claiming to have reached some sort of 'understanding' with Russia on the Russian Proposal, it is important to understand what motivates Russia. With Russia & Iran Save The Last Dance, James G. Poulos offers some insight to that end. He begins:
As the clock struck twelve on the last night of 2005, I wrote my second prediction for this year:
2. The Iran-nuke crisis goes pop. The Iranians will toy with the Russian proposal, embrace it again, demur again, raise questions, withhold answers, tinker furiously, and let their actions constitute a de facto rejection. By then the Security Council will pass an unenforceable resolution, unanimous but with the absention of the last country that can seriously abstain -- China.
We're well on our way. Iran has succeeded in toying, embracing, demuring, and now raises more questions than it answers in the latest agreement "in principle." The Washington Post reports that Russia's head nucleoid Kiriyenko says all the right things:
He continues with a thoughtful glimpse of the situation with Iran, Russia's involvement and the incredibly complex diplomatic minefield before us if the Iranian crisis is to be resolved sans overt military warfare, concluding, "Iran requires real statecraft. Our margin for error, so forgivingly vast in the Iraqi case, has narrowed down to a thin line indeed."
Recommended reading for today.